Turn & River Oh My!
Preflop
We need to defend tighter in a multiway pot, especially if the field caller is a competent player.
Flop
For this sizing, and when BTN folds, I guess, we have to peel one street and see the turn. It is important to note though, that UTG should be stronger when C-betting into two opponents rather than one. But in a sense its better to have second pair here rather than top pair weak kicker, since we then have 5 outs against hands like AA, AK and KQ. And we are flipping against draws.
Definitely a call here to see the turn. So here either you make trips or two pair on turn, or if not, use your tell on the player.
Ok we got more than we wanted- we wanted the chance to read the opponent on the turn to bluff them out of the pot- we got that when the 3rd V folds- that plus we hit a pair so we can improve to best hand or have best hand right now.
So the call is automatic.
The key here is do we have the best plan to get that fold on turn or river?
This is where things get weird and is exactly the spot I am talking about. Our vill cbet in the middle vs 2 opponents - this is not good. Remember I said we are looking to flop the world with 2 pair or better? Loose or not, villan is still uncapped here - he has all the Kx, overcards to our 8 with the flush draw, better 8x, underpairs to the K, etc. So it can be eaaaasy for us be behind here with 2nd pair - just fold.
If this were a heads up pot, 2nd pair is easily a snap call - but the dynamics here are different...it wasn't heads up when villan cbet flop and so that factor remains the same. Calling with 2nd pair here is going to burn up chips more often than not. Especially against an agro villan who will keep firing and make your life miserable. Fold and move on.
All of your points are correct and without the read that the original poster stated was the purpose of the call preflop your suggested actions are correct.
However, we called for the turn read so if we decided to play an exploit strategy preflop and the exploit happens on the turn that is when we make our decisions. We must call the flop bet, for this sizing, our purpose was not to just hit big on the flop. We now can steal this pot if the V defines his hand as expected on the turn.
If the V does not define their hand then we apply all of your correct estimates and fold the turn.
Would be nice to hear what happened here after all
Hey guys thanks for holding strong - I had a great post written up - with graphs, and theoritical models, with emotes and memes, and lots a lots of MATHS to support my decisions - but I was distracted for several hours with gameplay - and my browser happened to reset later in the evening wiping out that beautiful post.
But anyway - enough with the bluffing
Jon - as eetenor stated above - all your input is on the mark, however I'm looking to take advantage of a read I have - an exploit in the loosest term, a tell, so in this instance we have to see the turn. And luckily for us the player on the button folds giving us a head up situation.
Still as you point out - not ideal since the original raiser is clearly presenting himself as having a strong hand. True to your strong points he is totally uncapped, he could have top pair, an overpair, a set, or anything, All we have here is 2nd pair with a nothing kicker.
I would certainly love to hear your (and others) feedback on when we take advantage of our exploits - that we are pretty certain of, and deviate from a more straight forward GTO approach?
I don't think we can always count on the runout assisting us in exploiting an opponent simply because it 'hits' our perceived range better, or if we have a 'range' advantage vs a nut advantage.
So I decided to make the call on the flop.
The pot is now 15.91bb and the turn is
Now the board is
Our villain continues his aggressive posture by betting out here 10.94bb
So in my simple math brain - that is roughly 3/4 pot - slightly under 70%. ?
Based on our note - the villain here can be doing both of what my note says, he could be bluffing and chasing. With the board having two flush draws coming in, I'm pretty confident he is going after one of them.
I guess he could also have a middle pair as well 77s, thru JJs, though 88s would be a set, and possibly he could still have a King and want to protect his hand with a larger bet size.
But - that's not what my note says. If he is betting for value he would bet smaller on the turn, so we are OPTIMISTICALLY putting him on a flush draw, and possibly a 3rd pair type hand, maybe A/5, 66s or 77s.
If ya'll have input on the turn - I'm happy to hear it, although I suspect the tighter, more theoritical players will say something like - I would never be in this spot, so I'd just fold on the turn, the bet is too large and we have a junk hand, better to conserve chips and find a better spot than risk losing more here.
The more adventurous players - less tight - more exploitative - might take the note (exploit) we have into consideration and make this call to see a river.
We make the call on the turn - and now the pot is 37.8bb.
The river is one of the cards I think villain was looking for. It is
for a final board of
We hold
2nd pair - no kicker.
And the villain overbets the river all in for 51.04bb.
I would have under one small blind if I called and lost here.
What to do?