$4.40 NLHE MTT: Call or fold the 3bet all in?

[CampaLoa]

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, 4.4 Tournament, 200/400 Blinds 50 Ante (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

UTG (t3100)
UTG+1 (t30249)
MP1 (t8170)
MP2 (t5114)
MP3 (t7571)
CO (t13869)
Button (t9438)
SB (t53849)
Hero (BB) (t14628)

Hero's M: 13.93

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q

, A

UTG bets t3050 (All-In), 6 folds, SB raises to t53799 (All-In)

Call or fold this?

 

[MediaBLITZ]

Oh man - how has this big stack been playing? What's his image? What's the Hero's image? Why is he pulling this completely excessive and unreasonable move at this time? What is this guy's level of play? Is he smart enough to know what he's doing? Obviously he is isolating, but can he back it up? If he didn't do this I am for sure calling the UTG.
Lot's of factors to consider but initially I just might consider calling this. There are only 4 hands that can put me in major trouble - AA, KK, QQ, AK.
It could be a race. AQh is like +66% against any single random hand (although to me a shove or any raise makes a hand a lot less "random"), BUT ONLY 50% vs 2 hands. The real battle is for the side pot - that's what could knock me out.
QQ? JJ? TT? AK? smaller pair? Giving him the benefit of the doubt, an excessive play like this would be insane without something to at least draw to. Lot's of poker still to be played and Hero is in pretty good shape. I reconsider and fold based on it's too early to get involved in a coin flip but the perfect time to let the other stacks fight it out. Also somebody may very well have some of my outs. I do let the big stack know he better take care of business though.

 

[CampaLoa]

Your second half of your thought process was also the one I was following, so I folded. He turned over AJo onfurtunately and I would have allmost trippled up had I called. I don't really regret the fold though.

As far as the reads: I haven't seen him getting out of line (too much) and he was handling himself pretty well. My image was pretty tight, but really aggressive, pretty much only raising or folding (and folding to 3bets a lot too)

 

[c9h13no3]

My tournament play is pretty rough, but this is a standard fold as far as I know.

 

[Poker Orifice]

My tournament play is pretty rough, but this is a standard fold as far as I know.

This ^ 100%

 

[peedee91]

well your goal is to move up the pay ladder right now your 4th in chips and youll be out of the blinds......fold it face up and say i hope you knock him out.....just to tell your pissed and if he has your beat good fold if not....you have a reason to pissed haha just kidding...but fold and pick a better spot to double up

 

[baudib1]

Am I correct here that we need to call $14k to win ~$33K? I'm calling unless big stack is a total nit or there are strong ICM considerations, which it doesn't look like there are; I'd fold with UTG+1's stack.

 

[c9h13no3]

Am I correct here that we need to call $14k to win ~$33K? I'm calling

What range are you putting them on? You need something like 77+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo out of both players in order for this call to be profitable (in a cash game, ICM will make it wider). You think they're shoving that wide?

 

[baudib1]

It's a shortstack and a big stack isolating vs. a shortstack, so yeah -- I'd expect to see a lot worse Ax in there.

 

[c9h13no3]

It's a shortstack and a big stack isolating vs. a shortstack, so yeah -- I'd expect to see a lot worse Ax in there.

Well I'm really not in much of a place to say what people's tournament ranges are, since I've played like zero of them in the past year. But idk, that just seems wide to me. The shorty is UTG...

 

[dj11]

It's a shortstack and a big stack isolating vs. a shortstack, so yeah -- I'd expect to see a lot worse Ax in there.

Exactly. However, based on stack sizes this looks to be that time of a tourney when mistakes are deadly. Hero has a nicely healthy stack (relatively on this table anyway).

There are ICM issues involved, and while I hate these situations, I think I let the big stack prove his worth, he will also be giving me valuable info for later on. I will get to see his hand. He will NOT get to see what I am willing to fold.

I fold here, very very reluctantly.

 

[Pascal-lf]

Some of these comments are lol. Heros image is pretty much irrelevant given you are closing the action and big stack is probably just mashing buttons.

I think I fold, if we had like 10k I'm calling tho.

 

[MediaBLITZ]

Some of these comments are lol. Heros image is pretty much irrelevant given you are closing the action and big stack is probably just mashing buttons.

I think I fold, if we had like 10k I'm calling tho.

Yeah, you're right - Hero's image is irrelevant as there is no fold equity to be had. That boat sailed. I was just running down my usual check list without specific thinking. Good catch.