$4.40 NLHE MTT: $$4.40 NLHE MTT: Didn't feel good about this river play

[TheKAAHK]

pokerstars - $4+$0.40|200/400 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3: http://www.pokertracker.com

proedros83 (BB): 18,135.00
OlufA (UTG): 2,799.00
2tone71 (UTG+1): 10,056.00
zygi7777777 (MP): 20,046.00
changezi (MP+1): 9,191.00
JoelxBass (LP): 8,695.00
theKAAHK (CO): 53,883.00
guerra xx (BTN): 6,795.00
nish1811 (SB): 9,840.00

proedros83 posts ante 50.00, OlufA posts ante 50.00, 2tone71 posts ante 50.00, zygi7777777 posts ante 50.00, changezi posts ante 50.00, JoelxBass posts ante 50.00, theKAAHK posts ante 50.00, guerra xx posts ante 50.00, nish1811 posts ante 50.00, nish1811 posts SB 200.00, proedros83 posts BB 400.00

Pre Flop: (1050.00) theKAAHK has Kd Ah

fold, fold, zygi7777777 calls 400.00, fold, fold, theKAAHK raises to 1,800.00, fold, fold, fold, zygi7777777 calls 1,400.00

Flop: (4650.00, 2 players) Jd Js As
zygi7777777 bets 400.00, theKAAHK raises to 2,000.00, zygi7777777 calls 1,600.00

Turn: (8650.00, 2 players) 7h
zygi7777777 checks, theKAAHK bets 4,700.00, zygi7777777 calls 4,700.00

River: (18050.00, 2 players) 2c
zygi7777777 bets 800.00,


No real reads on villain, as I've only been at the table for >5 hands. Though 3 of those he limp/called/folded to c-bet.

Felt good about my hand pf (obv), and even good enough on the flop when I raised his donk-bet. After the call of my turn bet though I did have a few qualms about jamming the river. All along I felt he would be showing up with plenty of worse A type hands, maybe even some sort of draw (this tourney is a fishtank, so...). I could see some Jx (JK, JQ, even 10Js) limp/calling here, but his flop donk screamed weak A. Then his tenacity throughout the hand made me second guess that. Thoughts on river line?

 

[CuttleFish]

My view, raise to about 1850. Key here is to make it so a call still leaves him with >$10k psychological barrier.

If I was in his shoes, this would be the max I would call with Ax.

If he shoves, then again, call. He would have shoved after your bet on the flop if he had Jx or again after your bet on the turn if he had Jx.

QQ+ would already be out as he didnt raise pre-flop, so would be narrowing his range now to ~77-TT or A2-AT and have excluded Jx based on previous play.

I think your weak A read is good. Worst case if its wrong, you have basically swapped places, 1st for 2nd and there is still light between you and 3rd.

Just my way of looking at it.

CuttleFish

 

[OMGITSOVER9K]

yeah, with Cuttlefish on this one..

weak A all the way, probably suited.

you know fish get off on those suited aces.

 

[BlueNowhere]

I'd just jam for value, Villian has more combos of Ax than Jx. Plus he will show up with a few stupid hands as well, 88 type hands. I also expect alot of Jx to check/min-raise OTF from this kind of player. His range is weighted towards Ax that he isn't folding so I happily jam.

 

[Tino11]

I can only agree with a fellow Geordie here, his analysis is a mirror of my own.

 

[Arjonius]

Your flop bet seems rather small. After he donks for 400, there's 5050 in the pot, You put in 2000, making it 7050. He has to call 1600, meaning the pot odds are 4.4 to 1. Since he's unlikely to fold much at all, if anything, you really don't stand to learn anything when he calls. Even if he check-raises, he might not have it; there's a decent probability he's doing so because he decided your small c-bet indicates weakness.

As for what his range might be after he donks small again on the river, Ax is certainly possible. It may be the single most likely holding. However, if you're going to assume he's a fish, it seems like you shouldn't dismiss the possibility he played other holdings like a fish. Like open-limping AA, AJ or JJ.

Also, on the hands where he limp-called and folded to a c-bet, what seats was he in? What were the c-bet sizes? Did he open-limp or limp behind? How were those situations similar to and also different from the hand in question?

 

[Aldito]

My view, raise to about 1850. Key here is to make it so a call still leaves him with >$10k psychological barrier.

If I was in his shoes, this would be the max I would call with Ax.

If he shoves, then again, call. He would have shoved after your bet on the flop if he had Jx or again after your bet on the turn if he had Jx.

QQ+ would already be out as he didnt raise pre-flop, so would be narrowing his range now to ~77-TT or A2-AT and have excluded Jx based on previous play.

I think your weak A read is good. Worst case if its wrong, you have basically swapped places, 1st for 2nd and there is still light between you and 3rd.

Just my way of looking at it.

CuttleFish

1850 into an almost 20k pot is waaaaay to small

 

[duggs]

My view, raise to about 1850. Key here is to make it so a call still leaves him with >$10k psychological barrier.

If I was in his shoes, this would be the max I would call with Ax.

If he shoves, then again, call. He would have shoved after your bet on the flop if he had Jx or again after your bet on the turn if he had Jx.

QQ+ would already be out as he didnt raise pre-flop, so would be narrowing his range now to ~77-TT or A2-AT and have excluded Jx based on previous play.

I think your weak A read is good. Worst case if its wrong, you have basically swapped places, 1st for 2nd and there is still light between you and 3rd.

Just my way of looking at it.

CuttleFish

disagree with you here mate, the way the hand is played i think he is calling off a much higher bet with Ax, i hardly think that 1/10 pot is his max payoff,

if i didnt miscalculate as he around 12k left and pot is 18k, obv jam in my opinion, small bet is either inducing or blocking but at this buy in id guess he is betting because he feels he should bet with an Ax or mid pocket pair,

in summary we lose to Jx obv but we definitely are missing value from Ax and midpairs if we dont get it in here.

If we are betting, which everyone seems to agree, we should be getting his stack in.

 

[BluffYou123]

Seems I'm the only one, but I'm happy enough with the size of the pot on the river to just flat call his weird river bet. I've seen fish take these weird kind of lines with huge hands and it's likely he's expecting you to raise him again on the river. Sure, we're missing value from Ax hands and pocket pairs but as I said, the pot is already big enough.

 

[TheKAAHK]

Seems I'm the only one, but I'm happy enough with the size of the pot on the river to just flat call his weird river bet. I've seen fish take these weird kind of lines with huge hands and it's likely he's expecting you to raise him again on the river. Sure, we're missing value from Ax hands and pocket pairs but as I said, the pot is already big enough.

This was my thinking. In the end I chickened out and called the t800 bet. Opp showed A8os and I scooped. In hindsight I should have gone with my initial read, but with a field of this size (7033) and my top 20 sack, I really didn't feel the need to lose any more chips if I were behind a Jx hand. Like I said, I didn't like the turn call, as it got me a but befuddled and softened my resolve.

I sure did miss value on this hand, but the upside is I stacked this same player the very next hand when he limp/called against my AA with KQo, flopped a Q and didn't let it go when I put him in.

 

[BlueNowhere]

Seems I'm the only one, but I'm happy enough with the size of the pot on the river to just flat call his weird river bet. I've seen fish take these weird kind of lines with huge hands and it's likely he's expecting you to raise him again on the river. Sure, we're missing value from Ax hands and pocket pairs but as I said, the pot is already big enough.

Not betting because you're happy enough to win a biggish pot is not a good reason not to bet.

 

[BluffYou123]

Not betting because you're happy enough to win a biggish pot is not a good reason not to bet.

I agree. My reasoning for just calling was more because when I've come up against this kind of play before I was more often beat than ahead.

 

[baudib1]

Shove over as everyone says, I'd be concerned if he shoved the river himiself or something.

 

[duggs]

allowing yourself to be min blocker bet is pretty bad in this spot i think

 

[dwbrown7680]

Your sizing in general seems pretty small for flop/turn. In a situation like this where you can pretty much guarantee you're ahead there is absolutely no reason to not come over the top ai on the river. Once you have a read or decision on your opponents range stick to it, don't let sheepish blocking bets sway you from what you know the right move is.

 

[TheKAAHK]

allowing yourself to be min blocker bet is pretty bad in this spot i think

Your sizing in general seems pretty small for flop/turn. In a situation like this where you can pretty much guarantee you're ahead there is absolutely no reason to not come over the top ai on the river. Once you have a read or decision on your opponents range stick to it, don't let sheepish blocking bets sway you from what you know the right move is.

I completely agree. I really didn't feel good with how I played it and I'm glad to see that I really was horrible in this spot. Humility is good

 

[Poker Orifice]

No real reads on villain, as I've only been at the table for >5 hands. Though 3 of those he limp/called/folded to c-bet.

Pretty big read in itself imo ^