$4.4 NLHE MTT Bounty: QQ on K high board in 3-bet pot

[fundiver199]

pokerstars, $3.92 + $0.48 - Hold'em No Limit - 45/90 (14 ante) - 9 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

UTG: 21,262 (236 bb)
UTG+1 (Hero): 6,702 (74 bb)
MP: 2,240 (25 bb)
MP+1: 5,223 (58 bb)
LP: 5,000 (56 bb)
CO: 6,776 (75 bb)
BU: 4,534 (50 bb)
SB: 13,781 (153 bb)
BB: 8,482 (94 bb)

Pre-Flop: (261) Hero is UTG+1 with Q♦ Q♣
UTG raises to 270, Hero 3-bets to 1,080, 2 players fold, LP calls 1,080, 4 players fold, UTG calls 810

Flop: (3,501) J♦ K♠ 5♠ (3 players)
UTG bets 540, Hero calls 540, LP calls 540

Turn: (5,121) 3♣ (3 players)
UTG bets 540, Hero calls 540, LP calls 540

River: (6,741) K♥ (3 players)
UTG bets 5,571, Hero?

UTG is a VPIP 58 / PFR 22 over 36 hands. LP was just moved to the table so no reads on him. Tournament is a 4,4$ PKO regular speed on PokerStars with a field of 2.000+ players.

 

[Collin Moshman]

I would definitely Hero-call here considering that:

** Straight and flush draws all missed;

** King on river lowers the conditional probability that an opponent holds one;

** Nobody has shown much strength in this hand;

** UTG is playing like a maniac over small sample.

 

[300HPGOD]

75 BBs is a lot to go down with a 1 one pair hand but my initial reaction here was to call. I agree with all the points that CM makes in the post above but what made this a call for me was the bet sizing by villain. Before I get into any of that I dont like that there is still a player to act behind us although I think there Kx hands are rare here since I would not expect them to play it passively with such a small bet and call in front on the flop 3 way with two spades on the board. I think we are ahead of the player behind us so we can focus on UTG.

When a villain leads into us this small when we raise (especially a 3 bet) I feel a lot of the time it is a feeler bet. They are trying to gauge the strength of your hand by whether you call or raise (and if they get folds from this then they are even happier). Since you just called (as you should have imo) villain then gets the picture that you have something good enough to 3 bet pre but not something you love now. They then can concoct a plan to take it away from you on a later street. I feel this is their plan or it is some blocker bet of sorts when they have two spades and are trying to see the next card cheaply. Spades never got there and if I am right about the small bet to steal it later then this is a call. Add in that you are worried about AA not 4 betting you (unlikely from this villain I think) and Kx hands that are now more rare since two are out on the board. There are some crazy times you run into sets here from weird players (5s or 3s if you can believe that) but I highly doubt that as well. I think this is a massive bluff on the river from a player that is not smart enough to know you should have some pocket pair here a lot of the time to 3 bet from UTG +1 and two prominent ones have a set or quads. Maybe they know this and can tell you have what you have but Im still calling here.

 

[fundiver199]

Thanks for the comments, and I think, you both pretty much nailed it. I called, LP folded, and UTG had A5o. So he flopped bottom pair and turned it into a bluff. Lesson of the hand: Dont fold to a maniac, when his story makes no sense

 

[vsawake01]

...
...
How else to show strength in such multipot?

Even a "maniac" sometime has a nuts. Let see from "maniac" side. Similar reason mentions by Collin

** Straight and flush draws all missed;
** King on river lowers the conditional probability that an opponent holds one;
** Nobody has shown much strength in this hand;

 

[kkonicke]

Everything about that river screams missed draw. One thing I'll also note, him betting an identical amount on the flop and turn shows serious weakness in my opinion. Also shows that he really has no idea what he's doing. I wouldn't even expect him to flip up a jack here. Either he's being super weird with like 55, or you're good. I also wouldn't really be that concerned about LP. I think you would have heard from him if he had Kx or a set, he's getting good enough odds on such a small bet to call with literally every draw including gutshots.

One other small note, in a 9 handed game I personally 3 bet a touch smaller in early position with so much action behind. I might go to 800 or so instead of a 4x 3bet. With the raiser yet to act, I don't think you will have a bunch of riff raff coming along despite the smaller 3 bet. And you're putting yourself out there a little bit less on the unlucky chance one of the other 7 players left to act hits you with the cold 4.

 

[demesquita]

I was wondering if the maniac couldn't be playing a JJ hand. The 55 wouldn't raise from UTG, would? Even less, pay the tribet, right? But the JJ makes some sense, or am I wrong? I dunno, I think I may be looking for excuses to fold in your position.

 

[fundiver199]

I was wondering if the maniac couldn't be playing a JJ hand. The 55 wouldn't raise from UTG, would? Even less, pay the tribet, right? But the JJ makes some sense, or am I wrong? I dunno, I think I may be looking for excuses to fold in your position.

Anything is possible of course, but it would be a really weird line for him to take with a strong hand like a set. In that situation you typically want to check to the preflop raiser and let him do his C-bet. Especially with middle or bottom set on a board like this, where the 3-bettor will have all the AA, AK type hands that love the flop.

And if you wanted to lead, you would typically want to pick a bet sizing, which made it easy to get stacks in by the river. Why bet very small on flop and turn and then bomb the river giving your opponent a chance to get away for very cheap? This line is usually either a hand, that got there on the river, or its a bluff.

In this case no hands got there, since the river card paired the board with top card. A hand like KQ now beats AA or J5, but this is pretty much irrelevant, since nobody would get to the river this way with AA, and noboby has J5 in a 3-bet pot. So on this particular runout his line only makes sense as a bluff.

Which by the way is why, you dont want to take such unbalanced lines against thinking players, who can do hand reading. If you want to bluff, you want to make sure, that you tell a credible story. If you just randomly bomb the river out of nowhere, good players are going to call you down light, because you are only representing, that you want them to fold.

 

[theANMATOR]

Thanks for the comments, and I think, you both pretty much nailed it. I called, LP folded, and UTG had A5o. So he flopped bottom pair and turned it into a bluff. Lesson of the hand: Dont fold to a maniac, when his story makes no sense

Was it A/5 off with the Ace of spades FD ?

 

[fundiver199]

Was it A/5 off with the Ace of spades FD ?

Dont remember the suits, but he had no backdoor draw, so it was not Ace of spades

 

[FernA9ndo]

You had a hand to hero call. I would call with Queens.

 

[Jon Poker]

I dont know why UTG decides to donk this board in a 3b pot because it should SMASH both the 3b range and his calling range here - so if he had a hand like AK or JJs, KJs, etc - leading here generally just loses him value when he hits this and has enough card removal to decrease your chances of connecting with this flop...so for me, the donk bet here is certainly suspect.

That said, we cannot raise this texture since doing so generally only gets better hands to call us and worse to fold. So the call is pretty mandatory I think.

Turn doesn't change much, and villan bets the sizing again - and as I said, nothing has changed so we just call twice.

The river I feel like is our saving grace - with the 2nd K on board its now alot less likely our villan has a Kx holding and we are basically only losing to JJs unless he indeed has the K -- so for me, that makes this a pretty good spot for the call with QQs. As mentioned, flush and straight draws both missed and overplayed hands like AJ think they are going for value here only to wind up stacked. I like the call on the river for sure. We are too high up in our range to fold.

That said, if the river brought a brick or an A - I think we have a muuuuch harder decision on the river, and facing a triple barrel in either of those scenarios could warrent a fold.