$4.4 NL HE MTT: Top pair top kicker against an unknown limper

[fundiver199]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

4.4

Game Options

1. Bounty

Currency

$

Game is a 4,4$ regular speed PKO on pokerstars. This is the second blind level, but my first hand since I late registered. For that reason everyone are unknowns. MP has the starting bounty. Do you bet the river for value, and if yes then for what sizing?

PokerStars, $3.92 + $0.48 - Hold'em No Limit - 20/40 (5 ante) - 7 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

UTG: 7,484 (187 bb)
MP: 2,915 (73 bb)
MP+1 (Hero): 3,000 (75 bb)
CO: 2,990 (75 bb)
BU: 2,943 (74 bb)
SB: 5,721 (143 bb)
BB: 2,995 (75 bb)

Pre-Flop: (95) Hero is MP+1 with A♣ K♣
1 fold, MP calls 40, Hero raises to 200, 4 players fold, MP calls 160

Flop: (495) 8♦ 5♠ A♦ (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets 198, MP calls 198

Turn: (891) 9♠ (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets 356, MP calls 356

River: (1,603) 4♠ (2 players)
MP checks, Hero?

 

[kitchy65]

Talk us through your thought processes? What have you deduced you opponents holdings to be?

Is making any bet on the end here of value?

The most positive EV is checking behind and realizing your share of the pot.
Because, I assume if you do bet and your opponent shoves, your hand is in the muck, right?


It's not a dry board----and your opponent has already put you on Ax


But just a general answer to value betting

1/4 -1/3 pot size bet.... prices in worse hands to call.

Pot size bet may drive out second pairs, but will get any Ax to call 100% of the time.

 

[fundiver199]

Talk us through your thought processes? What have you deduced you opponents holdings to be?

I like to give people the chance to tell, how they see the situation, before revealing my own thought process and decision.

 

[kitchy65]

Floating for the diamond flush...missed.
That's all you can deduce from the way you played the hand.
Will the LAG give it up?
Betting mindlessly on the river is going to put all the pressure back on you if he does bluff.


The open ender got there.
Back door flush to spades got there.
A made two pair has you crushed...as has a set.

 

[kitchy65]

I like to give people the chance to tell, how they see the situation, before revealing my own thought process and decision.

Other players would have played the hand differently. Constrained by the way you played it, then I wouldn't be betting the river at all.

The check from the opponent on the river was weak..but you don't know the player type.
And he can be confident you've an Ax and will likely bet again.

 

[spunka]

I think continue with betting around same sieze just under 1/2 pot, most likely hands is Ax or a missed flush draw, he might call with Ax, that said I would not like if he reraise.
If we do check villan should bet, that leave is in a bad spot. (I find villan holding 2-3 unlikely)

 

[fundiver199]

Other players would have played the hand differently. Constrained by the way you played it, then I wouldn't be betting the river at all.

Feel free to share, how you would have played the earlier streets

 

[kitchy65]

Feel free to share, how you would have played the earlier streets

I'm not likely to do that.

This is feedback on your hand, and you asked whether we'd value bet and for how much?

I gave a general answer based on the assumption you had the best hand at showdown.



But without coming across as conceited and just saying it as it is...in that position you'd invited me to your Birthday party.
80% of the time, not satisfied with eating your cake, I'd want you to be holding AK, so I could help myself to your presents.

 

[feisas7991]

bigger ott. like 450
otr like 750
could obv adjust it differently too
hope this helps and Good Luck!

 

[300HPGOD]

I know in game I would check the river against an unknown but I would be fairly confident I was ahead. I think in reality this is a bet fold spot and my sizing would be somewhere in the neighborhood of 700 (if I was to bet in game) since we go to the river 2350 ish effective. My check is just based on the thought process that I dont know this villain and I dont know yet what their limp call range against 5x is pre or their call down tendencies so I have to use my thinking of a population read here and think if villain even had some smaller Ax that (remember the pre flop limp discounts AJ and AQ so the bigger Ax's that we beat are less likely) that was not two pair at this point would they call 3 streets with the backdoor flush coming in as well? I'd say no (right or wrong but who knows at this point) so I would just check and play safe even though Im leaving some potential value out there.

Getting back to this hand from a hand reading perspective, on the river we are worried about a flush, possible but unlikely straight, sets, two pairs. I'll start with sets and straights. Both of these should have hit them by the turn since I dont think villain has 32 or would call two streets with 44. With the turn double suiting would villain just call the turn bet with those strong hands? I doubt it, I would expect a lead being worried about a check back or would expect a check raise there so I am throwing those out (although I played a hand recently where someone just called me with a set when the board was very wet lol, so it possible but im saying unlikely). Next is two pair. Two pair falls in the same category as sets and straights unless the two pair occurred with the 4 on the river. How many 4x hands are open limping and then calling 5x pre and then calling down? We dont know for sure but I wouldnt say many outside of A4 but if villain has A4 they would have to had call 2 streets and could not have had any flush draw based on what came out in this hand so I doubt that but it is possible. All the other two pair hands I think you would hear from by the time you head to the river. That leaves flushes which I think is the most likely hand if villain is in fact ahead of you. Some Ax spade hands that would have called flop due to the ace and then called turn as well since they now have a flush draw. Would they check river? Yeah maybe if they think you have Ax (which is your most likely holding) and think you will bet again or think you will fold if they were to lead river. With all that, I think the real best play here is to bet with the intention of folding to a raise.

 

[fundiver199]

I know in game I would check the river against an unknown but I would be fairly confident I was ahead. I think in reality this is a bet fold spot and my sizing would be somewhere in the neighborhood of 700 (if I was to bet in game) since we go to the river 2350 ish effective. My check is just based on the thought process that I dont know this villain and I dont know yet what their limp call range against 5x is pre or their call down tendencies so I have to use my thinking of a population read here and think if villain even had some smaller Ax that (remember the pre flop limp discounts AJ and AQ so the bigger Ax's that we beat are less likely) that was not two pair at this point would they call 3 streets with the backdoor flush coming in as well? I'd say no (right or wrong but who knows at this point) so I would just check and play safe even though Im leaving some potential value out there.

I had a very similar thought process on the river. All those little cards, apart from the A, kind of smack a limp-calling range, including a lot of aces up and other two pair combos. So while this might be leaving some chips on the table, I did in fact check back, and this is the result:

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