Is the 3rd raise always AA or KK?

J

joeeagles

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This player had AA just before this hand:

pokerstars Game #10954129169: Tournament #55543920, $15+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2007/07/15 - 15:16:25 (ET)
Table '55543920 2' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: SartanaBlake (2320 in chips)
Seat 2: heepman (1550 in chips)
Seat 3: BigBabylons (1705 in chips)
Seat 4: hb-vfb (190 in chips)
Seat 5: huge clam (840 in chips)
Seat 6: billabilla43 (1380 in chips)
Seat 7: giarre (2995 in chips)
Seat 8: Megaheiner (1455 in chips)
Seat 9: ZitO2007 (1125 in chips)
SartanaBlake: posts small blind 15
heepman: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to giarre [Qs Qd]
BigBabylons: folds
hb-vfb: folds
giarre said, "NH"
huge clam: folds
billabilla43: raises 60 to 90
giarre: raises 210 to 300
Megaheiner: folds
ZitO2007: folds
SartanaBlake: raises 2020 to 2320 and is all-in
heepman: folds
billabilla43: folds
giarre:?

Can we fold this? He had AA the hand right before this one.

PokerStars Game #10954114489: Tournament #55543920, $15+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2007/07/15 - 15:15:32 (ET)
Table '55543920 2' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: SartanaBlake (1975 in chips)
Seat 2: heepman (1610 in chips)
Seat 3: BigBabylons (1705 in chips)
Seat 4: hb-vfb (190 in chips)
Seat 5: huge clam (1050 in chips)
Seat 6: billabilla43 (1380 in chips)
Seat 7: giarre (2995 in chips)
Seat 8: Megaheiner (1455 in chips)
Seat 9: ZitO2007 (1140 in chips)
ZitO2007: posts small blind 15
SartanaBlake: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to giarre [Kh Ts]
heepman: raises 30 to 60
BigBabylons: folds
hb-vfb: folds
huge clam: calls 60
billabilla43: folds
giarre: folds
Megaheiner: folds
ZitO2007: folds
SartanaBlake: raises 150 to 210
heepman: folds
huge clam: calls 150
giarre: folds
*** FLOP *** [7s Td 7d]
SartanaBlake: bets 210
huge clam: folds
SartanaBlake collected 555 from pot
SartanaBlake: shows [Ah Ad] (two pair, Aces and Sevens)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 555 | Rake 0
Board [7s Td 7d]
Seat 1: SartanaBlake (big blind) collected (555)
Seat 2: heepman folded before Flop
Seat 3: BigBabylons folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: hb-vfb folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: huge clam folded on the Flop
Seat 6: billabilla43 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: giarre folded before Flop
Seat 8: Megaheiner (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: ZitO2007 (small blind) folded before Flop

I know that what he had the hand before doesn't count, so what do you now, call of fold?
 
Last edited:
Four Dogs

Four Dogs

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I've heard it said that the third raise is always AA. Though at the micro limits it should be re-written as thid raise is usually AA or KK, but sometimes QQ, JJ, 22 or 53o.
 
t1riel

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Hand 1: Heads up with Pocket Queens preflop is not a bad call. You probably have the best hand right now. My guess he has A, K or A, Q. If he has Pocket Aces again, well that's poker.

Hand 2: Call with what? You folded preflop.
 
Lo-Dog

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Without any info to tell me this guy is just making a play I let it go. Still have lots of chips.

Whats the range? I'll say QQ+ Akos, AKs, that makes us a 60-40 dog.

If we really get generous JJ+, AQos+ we are basically a coinflip.
 
F

fishfood

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I have seen qq folded pre flop to a raise and a re-raise exactly one and only one time....I believe is was the wsop two years ago and It was a correct laydown as the player who made the laydown was up against AA and KK.
 
NineLions

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What I remember reading is that the 4th raise means Aces, but that was at a pro level.

I dunno, QQ I'd let it go. It still might be KK as well. But then I'm probably too risk adverse in a tourney situation.

I had QQ against a generally bad small stack player in a ring game who doubled up with AA two hands earlier, so I got him all in preflop. Of course he doubled up at my expense with AA again.


Fishfood, I never saw that hand, but I've read Phil Gordon talk about laying down KK to Phil Helmuth's AA and someone else in the hand lay down QQ. Helmuth the proceeded to complain about how he never has any luck, getting AA against KK and QQ and not winning a big pot.
 
arkadiy

arkadiy

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This doesn't seem far in the tourney, if you can afford to play $15 MTTs regularly and this isn't just a 1 time thing, then I'd call. Most likely a coin flip seeing if an A comes out.

(I actually can put him on 99 - JJ / AK / AQ trying to steal the few chips in the pot because I don't see an instant all-in here with AA or KK)
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

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Villain has seen an MP raise and then a LMP reraise with four people to act. He has to assume you have a very strong hand.

As Lo-Dog said, in order to justify calling we need to enter the realms of "Does he do this with AQ/TT?" While it's a low limit donkament and it's certainly possible, I don't consider it likely enough to justify calling here.

There is an argument that his reraise the first time with Aces was a small one, and this time he's overbet shoving, so it looks a bit suspicious - but the difference in this hand is that he's been shown more strength by players acting before him (a standard raise and standard reraise as opposed to an UTG minraise and a call), and the pot is larger.

I put him on AA-JJ/AK and fold (considering the way the OP was phrased I'm relatively certain he showed Aces again one way or the other, though ;)).
 
Y

young hova

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I think that raise is kind of funny personally. Unless you respect his judgement of the situation and his perspective of rand of hands you would reraise I would call, because the hand before someone raised and he repopped him for a more reasonable amount, now he wants to go all in with aces -- the same hand he seeminly wanted a call with, instead of repopping you and milking them like he did the first time? I just find that a little strange personally. It seems like he thinks he has the best hand preflop here but doesn't want to see a flop

If he's a good player and he's deceptive he could have some reverse psychology going on thinking well, statisically it is very rare to be dealt rockets 2 times in a row, but if he puts you on being a solid player knowing that you'll reraise with premium hands an all in by him right here could be a real good play, knowing that you can't believe him having aces again after he showed them down and it would be hard for you to fold. If you respect his judgement you'd also realize that he knows he's putting his tournament life on the line cus you have him covered.

The third raise doesn't always mean raise, especially at higher limits. For the most part I would think there aces on this lower level if He repopped it like he did the first time, but all in I have to call
 
Z

zohyeahz

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Most of the time the 3rd raise is at worst AK in my experience. That means coin flip with QQ - so might as well lay it down.
 
dj11

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Never say never, and never say always, but one has to consider the probability that one is beat there.
 
Four Dogs

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Fishfood, I never saw that hand, but I've read Phil Gordon talk about laying down KK to Phil Helmuth's AA and someone else in the hand lay down QQ. Helmuth the proceeded to complain about how he never has any luck, getting AA against KK and QQ and not winning a big pot.
The Queens belonged to none other than Mike Matusow. Phil Gordon's Little Blue Book.
 
ministaker

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It's an interesting situation. You can see that he went for value betting his AA on the previous hand but now he just moves in. This could be someone who slow plays big hands and shoves on his coin flippers. I'd guess AK and aiming to get you to lay it down.
If he hadn't just played aces for value, the previous hand, I'd fold to the 3rd reraise, but in this spot, I'm not laying it down and if he's got it, he's got it and I make a silent prayer for Karma to get him...
if he is pushing with AK, you're ahead and stand a good chance to double up early...
 
J

joeeagles

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Kind of forgot about this thread, also a bit disappointed Chuck didn't post since this is the tourney he plays most often.

Anyway I failed in laying down the queens after giving it alot of thought and running out most of the clock, and he did have aces again. My queens didn't improve and I was left with a shortstack,~600. I busted a few hands later when my 99 ran into JJ.

I was kind of upset since I was very close to laying them down. I let the fact he had AA the hand before lead me into calling. Had he not shown AA the hand before I probably would have folded, although its not a good excuse. I somehow convinced myself he could have JJ or TT.

Many might say tough luck but in honesty this a clear fold.

Thanks to all for your comments.
 
NineLions

NineLions

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I was kind of upset since I was very close to laying them down. I let the fact he had AA the hand before lead me into calling. Had he not shown AA the hand before I probably would have folded, although its not a good excuse. I somehow convinced myself he could have JJ or TT.

As I mentioned, similar thing happened to me at a cash table, with one hand in between the guy's Aces.

But, it's one of those things; just because it's statistically unlikely doesn't mean it's not happening right now to you. And we've all probably had Aces two hands in a row ourselves. I can remember when it happened to me at another cash table.
 
J

joeeagles

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As I mentioned, similar thing happened to me at a cash table, with one hand in between the guy's Aces.

But, it's one of those things; just because it's statistically unlikely doesn't mean it's not happening right now to you. And we've all probably had Aces two hands in a row ourselves. I can remember when it happened to me at another cash table.


I've never had such luck NL, but I admit that once in a tourney I had KK dealt 3 times in the first ~40 hands. On top of that, I later busted a guy who had KK with TT, but to my credit moneys went in on the flop after I made a set on a T high flop. Kings were my best friend in that tourney :) , which I eventually ended up winning.

But as you say even if its statistically not likely, that doesn't make it impossible. Its disappointing because I had a chance to make a great laydown and I failed to do so. Showing his aces the hand before made the difference, but its not a valid excuse. Hopefully I soon get out of this downswing I'm in.
 
Afterlife000

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If i had QQ and there was a 3rd raise, thats a pretty easy fold for me because i already know im behind if they have AA or AK. Even if they dont have that and have something like A K or A Q , they can still hit there K or A on the flop, turn, or river. Its just to risky too call that when there is a 3rd raise. Easy fold.
 
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