$330 NLHE MTT: AK problem

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kanselau

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Theres 50 runners left out of 100 blinds go up every 20min

Blinds 1500/3000/300 AVG chips is 40k
Every one on the table is between 10-20BB except for a couple with 5BB

Reads on villains:
UTG +2 arrived to the table 2 rounds ago , has limped 3 hands and got 3 bet twice and folded and shoved on once and folded.

MD reg ABC mostly likes to have a little fish occasionally but doesn't usually get out of hand too often.

Action : UTG +2 (45k) limps , MD (38k) raises to 9k , Hero CO (42k) wakes up with AKo

So our choices are Jam/fold IMO

We can be confident that UTG has a wide range so don't have to think about him too much as we dominate a big % of his range.

But what range do we assign MD , AQ+ 88+ ? if this is true then by assigning UTG+2 a random range we would roughly have around 35% equity against MD 41% and should fold.
 
warturtle7

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I think the player who re-raised has a range like, 55+, AJo+, KQo+, and against this range you have 53% equity. Also i don't see him calling a 4bet/ 4bet shove without a premium hand.
The right approach depends on the player but without a read on him I probably would shove.
 
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Justinawe12

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I'm shoving here every time. You said that the player likes to isolate the fish, so he could definitely worst hands then AK. There's only 2 hands we are scared of, and if he has AA, KK its a cooler and we were gonna lose lots of money regardless of how we played it. Shoving gives us Fold equity and even when called we have a great shot at doubling. With only 15bbs you have a perfect reshove stack and you can't ask for a much better hand to move all in.
 
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kanselau

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I think the player who re-raised has a range like, 55+, AJo+, KQo+, and against this range you have 53% equity. Also i don't see him calling a 4bet/ 4bet shove without a premium hand.
The right approach depends on the player but without a read on him I probably would shove.

Our read on villain is that he plays mostly ABC poker , plays marginal hands occasionally but usually limps with them and doesn't get out of line a lot.

I think the range you are giving him is way too light I think 22-77 hes limping in or min raising , KQ/AJ questionable as not shore if hes betting so much with it and we hold a AK.

IMO What makes his range alittle stronger than you suggest is the fact that this is live and people do not 3bet as often as online.
He is 3 betting from middle pos, if he was BTN I would open his range a little.
Also the stack sizes are really shallow to be betting such a big % of our stack on a play.
If stacks were deeper I would def agree with the proposed range.
 
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kanselau

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I'm shoving here every time. You said that the player likes to isolate the fish, so he could definitely worst hands then AK. There's only 2 hands we are scared of, and if he has AA, KK its a cooler and we were gonna lose lots of money regardless of how we played it. Shoving gives us Fold equity and even when called we have a great shot at doubling. With only 15bbs you have a perfect reshove stack and you can't ask for a much better hand to move all in.

I didn't say he likes to isolate fish , I said he likes to have a bit of a fish sometimes , meaning he sometimes limps with marginal hands.

We are not really only scared of AA, KK , we do not loose anything if we fold as this is def a Shove/Fold spot.
The question we are asking here is ,do we want to race for our tornament life if we feel we have an edge over the table. AK is just a drawing hand and we are most probably racing.

The 15 BB is kind of deceiving here as this is the tornament average , everyone is short and in the same boat.

Im not saying shoving is wrong here , I did indeed shove , but questioning if folding is an option.
 
Jblocher1

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I wouldn't recommend a fold. Even though everyone is in the same boat.... The fact is we only have 15BB. I think it's being a bit results oriented to say we are definitely in a race here. The limper likely just has marginal holdings and wants to see a flop, and the 3 better knows that. He can 3 bet wider than Just pocket pairs. When we jam.... We still have fold equity. If your not excited to get it in here with AK.... Would u only get it in with AA/KK? That's really exploitable as a range. U have like 13 bigs.... Just get it in.... Don't think twice IMO... Who knows when a better spot will arise if it does at all? If you had like 50BB I would say fold and find a better spot.... But here? 13-15 bigs? I think I'm willing to flip knowing if I win, I will be in great shape. Plus, if both fold to the four bet plus the blinds.... Your gaining 5.5BB which is a bit more than a 33% increase to ur stack. Play to win... Then next time a spot this good arises could be when u have 5BB and a double doesn't change much about your position. Good luck bud :)
 
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kanselau

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I wouldn't recommend a fold. Even though everyone is in the same boat.... The fact is we only have 15BB. I think it's being a bit results oriented to say we are definitely in a race here. The limper likely just has marginal holdings and wants to see a flop, and the 3 better knows that. He can 3 bet wider than Just pocket pairs. When we jam.... We still have fold equity. If your not excited to get it in here with AK.... Would u only get it in with AA/KK? That's really exploitable as a range. U have like 13 bigs.... Just get it in.... Don't think twice IMO... Who knows when a better spot will arise if it does at all? If you had like 50BB I would say fold and find a better spot.... But here? 13-15 bigs? I think I'm willing to flip knowing if I win, I will be in great shape. Plus, if both fold to the four bet plus the blinds.... Your gaining 5.5BB which is a bit more than a 33% increase to ur stack. Play to win... Then next time a spot this good arises could be when u have 5BB and a double doesn't change much about your position. Good luck bud :)

Well said - with stacks being so shallow we will need to race sooner or later
and if we win we are in preety good shape to go deep . I guess with a fast structure like this you need to gamble, otherwise the blinds will eat us up very quickly.

I have lately taken a lot of gamble out of my game witch has been working wonders for my cash game. But in tornaments the pressure of the blinds force us to gamble.

thanks for the advice
 
Jacki Burkhart

Jacki Burkhart

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I think you have to shove, and believe me I am reluctant to have my tourney life on the line with AK....but there are times when it is really the only viable choice...this is one of those times.

Yes, you may have a significant skill advantage over the table, but the structure does not allow the luxury of waiting for better spots. superior skill is only a big edge when stacks are deep and structures are slow.

here is another way to look at it....let's say you fold and then a few orbits later find yourself having to push anyways with a weaker hand like KJ and you get called by JJ or QQ or AK and are out....aren't you going to wish you could go back to this spot and take this risk which is such a better spot for your tournament goals?
 
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