$33 NLHE MTT: QJ suites on the button ICM

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BigXerxes

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Hello,

First post on cards chat :)
Playing on BetOnline yesterday as hddncrstls. Doing a $33 buy in MTT. Had about 900 entrants. We are in down to about 30 with most of the table at a little under 20 BB’s. Blinds are at 12,500 and 25,000. I have 400,000 chips. Hand is folded to me on the button with QcJc. Sb has me covered with about 650k and bb and I are virtually equal. I open to 60 k, sb folds and bb jams. After deliberation I told. I feel like this is the right move but would be interested in getting the opinions on others.
BB player up until this point has been playing a very strong range shoving hands like AQs, AK, QQ, KK, etc. however I watched the rest of the tourney after I busted in 24th and his range definitely opened up. And in this spot I would imagine his shoving range is a lot wider then what I had seen earlier. Still a fold? Thanks for the input :)
 
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Getting all in preflop with 16 BBs with Q high is rarely a good play.
 
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BigXerxes

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Getting all in preflop with 16 BBs with Q high is rarely a good play.


Thank you for your reply. I definitely agree. Just such a sick time for villain to be able to shove I imagine he is shoving a decently wide range here. What do you think is a good shoving range in Big Blind is versus Button open with both having an average stack of 18 BB's? down to final three tables in large (500+) tourney.

QJ suited is an open here on the button with the hand folded to you, would you agree? :)
 
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300HPGOD

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One of the reasons why we do not open jam this hand is because we are afraid of running into a bigger hand which would knock us out or decimate us depending on if BB does in fact cover us. Making a small raise here is the compromise play since it will give us a chance to pick up as many chips as jamming with villains folding but will save us if we run into something. Since we are making a play like this in case we run into something, why would we ever be small raising here to call off a jam unless we are very strong and are baiting one of the blinds to jam? Since we are not baiting here with only QJ this is a very easy fold and would not think twice about it or think I did anything wrong in the hand. We went to steal the blinds, we either got bluffed or ran into something bigger (honestly would not care which it was because my mind would be made up before I raise what I was going to do if someone jammed) and had to fold. I dont like raise folding on this stack size but sometimes you have to.

I would not advocate jamming here (depending on villains) since you will win a small pot or lose a huge a one when you get called. I also will say I think your sizing is too big. No need to go to 60k here when 50-55k will do the same. 5k saved in these spots are huge and if villains will fold to 2.4x then they will fold to 2-2.2x as well a vast majority of the time. Also, I wrote it earlier but will say it again, you should have your mind made up to know what you will do before you raise in this spot. You should not be raising and then caught off gaurd when someone jams. It should be Im raise folding here or raise calling here or I am raise folding to two all ins here but calling one etc. You should know what your plan is before making an action.
 
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fundiver199

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ICMizer actually has QJs as a marginal call, but ICMizer assume, that people use a pure jam or fold strategy, which is not realistic, when it comes to BB defense. BB can profitably defend a lot of hands as a call, and if he is only rejamming with AX, KQ and pairs, then QJs is a massively losing call. If a call is only marginally profitable in the most optimistic scenarie and massively losing in a realistic worst case scenarie, we should definitely fold.

As others have said already, with a stack this short you should only min-raise, so that you lose less, when you need to fold to a rejam. Open jamming is profitable according to ICMizer, but I think, min-raising and folding is better. With stacks a bit shorter like 13-14BB, I would open jam, so this is right on the limit. Sometimes losing a hand like this, or the blinds going up, can almost be a relief, because then you can shift to push-or-fold mode, where you are very unlikely to make any major mistakes.
 
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BigXerxes

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One of the reasons why we do not open jam this hand is because we are afraid of running into a bigger hand which would knock us out or decimate us depending on if BB does in fact cover us. Making a small raise here is the compromise play since it will give us a chance to pick up as many chips as jamming with villains folding but will save us if we run into something. Since we are making a play like this in case we run into something, why would we ever be small raising here to call off a jam unless we are very strong and are baiting one of the blinds to jam? Since we are not baiting here with only QJ this is a very easy fold and would not think twice about it or think I did anything wrong in the hand. We went to steal the blinds, we either got bluffed or ran into something bigger (honestly would not care which it was because my mind would be made up before I raise what I was going to do if someone jammed) and had to fold. I dont like raise folding on this stack size but sometimes you have to.

I would not advocate jamming here (depending on villains) since you will win a small pot or lose a huge a one when you get called. I also will say I think your sizing is too big. No need to go to 60k here when 50-55k will do the same. 5k saved in these spots are huge and if villains will fold to 2.4x then they will fold to 2-2.2x as well a vast majority of the time. Also, I wrote it earlier but will say it again, you should have your mind made up to know what you will do before you raise in this spot. You should not be raising and then caught off gaurd when someone jams. It should be Im raise folding here or raise calling here or I am raise folding to two all ins here but calling one etc. You should know what your plan is before making an action.



Thank you! Point heard about knowing what to do ahead of time. This is my mindset when opening any hand. Truth be told I knew I was going to fold this as soon as villain jammed but I still took a minute to hit the button to make sure I get good about it 😀.
 
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BigXerxes

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ICMizer actually has QJs as a marginal call, but ICMizer assume, that people use a pure jam or fold strategy, which is not realistic, when it comes to BB defense. BB can profitably defend a lot of hands as a call, and if he is only rejamming with AX, KQ and pairs, then QJs is a massively losing call. If a call is only marginally profitable in the most optimistic scenarie and massively losing in a realistic worst case scenarie, we should definitely fold.

As others have said already, with a stack this short you should only min-raise, so that you lose less, when you need to fold to a rejam. Open jamming is profitable according to ICMizer, but I think, min-raising and folding is better. With stacks a bit shorter like 13-14BB, I would open jam, so this is right on the limit. Sometimes losing a hand like this, or the blinds going up, can almost be a relief, because then you can shift to push-or-fold mode, where you are very unlikely to make any major mistakes.


Yep exactly what I’m thinking. Plenty of times it’s really not bad, but then a few where we are crushed. Last night I was playing in a $22 mtt just past the bubble button jams 12 bigs on me with q10o I call him and lose with AKs. That’s poker for you. Thanks so much for the response!!
 
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UkoChebuko

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I will call. With the given info. Depends on some things. ICM, the players, the short stacks, the aggression from the chipleader and the short stacks. This will be kinda borderline call. Can be a little +EV, can be a little -EV. I don't hate the fold. Depends also on your image and on your range in this situation. I play more loose, I will call. But the fold maybe is fine for you.
I mean I expect here 42% equity and more. Can be optimistic or "pessimistic". I really don't know what to say. If I was there, most likely I will call. But this is your hand, the fold is fine. So confusing, sorry :D. Such a borderline spot...
 
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Thank you for your reply. I definitely agree. Just such a sick time for villain to be able to shove I imagine he is shoving a decently wide range here. What do you think is a good shoving range in Big Blind is versus Button open with both having an average stack of 18 BB's? down to final three tables in large (500+) tourney.

QJ suited is an open here on the button with the hand folded to you, would you agree? :)


I do completely agree that QJs is an open from the button.

A good player in the blinds can make it difficult for late position openers to continue, though. At that middle/late stage of a tournament, the best players get the chips not by stealing, but by re-stealing.

Plug some ranges into a solver, run equities and see if you can come up with some good continue ranges here. There are also many good articles about this on some of the better current training sites.
 
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eetenor

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Hello,

First post on cards chat :)
Playing on BetOnline yesterday as hddncrstls. Doing a $33 buy in MTT. Had about 900 entrants. We are in down to about 30 with most of the table at a little under 20 BB’s. Blinds are at 12,500 and 25,000. I have 400,000 chips. Hand is folded to me on the button with QcJc. Sb has me covered with about 650k and bb and I are virtually equal. I open to 60 k, sb folds and bb jams. After deliberation I told. I feel like this is the right move but would be interested in getting the opinions on others.
BB player up until this point has been playing a very strong range shoving hands like AQs, AK, QQ, KK, etc. however I watched the rest of the tourney after I busted in 24th and his range definitely opened up. And in this spot I would imagine his shoving range is a lot wider then what I had seen earlier. Still a fold? Thanks for the input :)


Thank U 4 Posting

Good job putting in the stack sizes etc and adding in the range you had seen as well. Great first effort.

So we know this V (villain) shoves their big hands and we cannot call this V shove if that is the range we give this V.

So first thing we should do is min raise here. We know we are not calling the BB shove and we have a hand that plays well post flop. Our stack size is perfect for getting folds post flop vs the bb light call as well. This saves us 15k vs this V when they shove.

The question is would this V shove with a wider range vs us in this spot?
How could we know this without seeing hands?

The data that we would need is:

1 Had this V been raising in more hands recently?
2 Were we aware of our fold frequency recently? Had we folded some opens? Had we been loose with our opens?
3 Did we seem to be playing a ladder up strategy?
4 Had the whole table tightened up?
5 Did the V seem to be a strong player that would rather go out in 30th trying to get first rather than ladder up to 12th?
How would we know this? In the hands that the V shoved and you saw the V must have been called. So we could do a break down in those spots to see if the shove was fear of being cracked or great isolation play. If the V is shoving AA why are they not trapping or min 3 betting call off 4 bet shove.

Example V has AA or KK SB- UTG opens 8 bb shove folded to V who re-shove isolates for 30bb vs BB that has 18bb. Why not trap there? Why shove?

If we see this kind of play we can use these data points to understand our V's mindset. So we look at other spots where this V shoved and showed and we analyze that data to define the skill range of this V.

Basically we are trying to recognize when this V might shift their strategy without seeing cards.

Hope this helps
:):)
 
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BigXerxes

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. Such a borderline spot...

Super borderline. Trying to avoid those spots but sometimes you can’t! I appreciate your willingness to get in all in here. A strong hand for sure!

To your point about table play, a big part of why I folded. No super short stacks at this table and no super big ones so everyone is playing fairly tight. Shortest stack is around 10 bbs and largest around 25. Villain has been on several tables with me throughout the tourney and should see me as having a balanced range. I am playing a little on the tighter side in this particular moment, not sure if he has noticed this or not as this table was just seated for final three tables but he hasn’t seen me raise fold many hands at all if any.
 
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BigXerxes

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I do completely agree that QJs is an open from the button.

A good player in the blinds can make it difficult for late position openers to continue, though. At that middle/late stage of a tournament, the best players get the chips not by stealing, but by re-stealing.

Plug some ranges into a solver, run equities and see if you can come up with some good continue ranges here. There are also many good articles about this on some of the better current training sites.

Yep super important to be able to re steal pots. I know I am shoving 77+ and likely AJ+ A10s in his spot. Maybe QK.

Is there a solver you recommend to plug that into?

What are your favorite current training sites?
 
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BigXerxes

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Thank U 4 Posting

Good job putting in the stack sizes etc and adding in the range you had seen as well. Great first effort.

So we know this V (villain) shoves their big hands and we cannot call this V shove if that is the range we give this V.

So first thing we should do is min raise here. We know we are not calling the BB shove and we have a hand that plays well post flop. Our stack size is perfect for getting folds post flop vs the bb light call as well. This saves us 15k vs this V when they shove.

The question is would this V shove with a wider range vs us in this spot?
How could we know this without seeing hands?

The data that we would need is:

1 Had this V been raising in more hands recently?
2 Were we aware of our fold frequency recently? Had we folded some opens? Had we been loose with our opens?
3 Did we seem to be playing a ladder up strategy?
4 Had the whole table tightened up?
5 Did the V seem to be a strong player that would rather go out in 30th trying to get first rather than ladder up to 12th?
How would we know this? In the hands that the V shoved and you saw the V must have been called. So we could do a break down in those spots to see if the shove was fear of being cracked or great isolation play. If the V is shoving AA why are they not trapping or min 3 betting call off 4 bet shove.

Example V has AA or KK SB- UTG opens 8 bb shove folded to V who re-shove isolates for 30bb vs BB that has 18bb. Why not trap there? Why shove?

If we see this kind of play we can use these data points to understand our V's mindset. So we look at other spots where this V shoved and showed and we analyze that data to define the skill range of this V.

Basically we are trying to recognize when this V might shift their strategy without seeing cards.

Hope this helps
:):)

Thank you for your response and kind words.

In regards to your considerations which I think are spot on.

1. V has not been raising more hands recently. I watched the rest of the tourney and his range opened up considerably 4 handed but not before then.

2. This was a new table but I had not had to raise fold much at all this tourney. Not sure what my overall stats on this are though if V is using a HUD.

3. No definitely playing a strategy to win.

4. Yes the whole table was playing fairly tight at this moment which made complete sense given context.

5. V seemed to be a fairly average skill level for this stake. shoving Ak and Aq pretty standard had not seen him get trappy and not sure wether or not he had that in his arsenal. I feel like he could have aa or kk with this jam but definitely a lot of other hands too. Range I have him shoving is 88+ AJ+, A10s
 
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Yep super important to be able to re steal pots. I know I am shoving 77+ and likely AJ+ A10s in his spot. Maybe QK.

Is there a solver you recommend to plug that into?

What are your favorite current training sites?


Pio Solver seems to be the one regarded as the most powerful. They also have a free version (albeit with limited functionality).

I have had memberships at most of the training sites over the years( CardRunners, Deuces Cracked, Lego, etc etc). They all seem pretty dated at this point. I am currently a member of UpSwing Poker, and am learning a lot there.
 
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