$33 NLHE MTT Bounty: Bubble play AQo with 20BB

[Alucard]

250 paid out of 1.7k players with 15 players to the bubble.
Questions - Is this a fold pre or a shove? Getting into the money should be our first priority as I think hence my passive play. But unsure whether we should be folding pre. River play?
I have a $45 bounty as well

partypoker - 8000/16000 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG: 31.65 BB (VPIP: 19.82, PFR: 13.21, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, hands: 112)
UTG+1: 22.19 BB (VPIP: 8.00, PFR: 4.55, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 25)
MP: 27.66 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)
MP+1: 41.29 BB (VPIP: 27.16, PFR: 19.23, 3Bet Preflop: 17.86, Hands: 83)
CO: 65.25 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
BTN: 34.49 BB (VPIP: 11.24, PFR: 8.88, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 170)
SB: 34.65 BB (VPIP: 19.15, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 96)
Hero (BB): 20.56 BB

8 players post ante of 0.12 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.45 BB) Hero has Ac Qh
fold, fold, fold, fold, CO raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 1 BB

Flop : (5.45 BB, 2 players) Ad 8h 5s
Hero checks, CO bets 1.91 BB, Hero calls 1.91 BB

Turn : (9.26 BB, 2 players) 4d
Hero checks, CO bets 3.24 BB, Hero calls 3.24 BB

River : (15.75 BB, 2 players) Kh
Hero checks, CO bets 57.99 BB and is all-in,

 

[quant1986]

I am ok folding pre or shove when villain shows aggressiveness attacking small-mid stack during bubble but never flat here OOP especially at this level of buyin.

His river overbet means he could have nuts or complete air.
I would have check-shoved turn or fold river as played and wait for a better spot to go AI preflop after bubble burst.

 

[Edson]

In my opinion the best way is all-in preflop. He could easily try to steal.
If You decide to call You can try to check/raise on the flop and after that he should slow down if he don't have big hand. Sometimes he will have here better hand, but AQ beats his open range from CO

 

[Matt Vaughan]

With the positions at play here I think this hand is WAY too strong to fold pre. I'd be jamming rather than going post though. It's just way too easy to get into situations with 1 pair where we are questioning what to do. I'm not saying he will ALWAYS put us in a terrible spot, but it's gonna be pretty non-zero imo.

I just go for the jam that I KNOW is profitable and where I minimize potential mistakes here. It's possible you could eek out more profit by a smidge by flatting but it seems unlikely to me. And you just won't really be coolered here that often. I think with a hand this good we just need to be capitalizing now and trying to take it down. It's worth noting we can still get called by worse here pre as well.

 

[trent32la]

Flatting has merits, but I prefer jamming here as we are going to be printing EV if CO is opening as wide as he can.

This river is a very easy call as played, the only previous non-2pair hand that was beating you has reduced combos, your opponent can triple barrel a worse ace in this spot, and V can overbluff this spot knowing you're overfolding on the bubble.

 

[thackro]

AQ is a dangerous hand, kinda like JJ, good yes but vulnerable. I agree with most others, either all-in or folding works but to call, not my play there. I probably go all in.

 

[elflake]

I go all-in here pre-flop. I never play just to get into the money so I don't know how to include that in decision making.

 

[naruto_miu]

So, how did you end up In the tourney? Curious why are we playing the hand so passively OOP off've 20BBs nearing ITM?

I mean we really have nothing to base Information on (Saying that CO) Is In-fact lurking with a monster (This close to ITM) with such a massive stack, for all we know they could (More than likely be attempting a steal) seeing as their In LP.

While I don't necessarily like the A.I play when getting/nearing ITM/Bubble situations, I do believe It's Important to be building a stack to coast to the FT and be putting ourselves In a position that we can contend for a top 3 placing and to be able to make such things happen, we need to be looking for a double up spots and AQ Is strong this far Into the game+Off've such a BB stack depth.

 

[Flight777sem]

It’s a bubble time pressure from big stack. I wouldn’t show pre but i would keep calling on that board even the river show

 

[naruto_miu]

It’s a bubble time pressure from big stack. I wouldn’t show pre but i would keep calling on that board even the river show

Curious, why do we keep calling but not 3Bet ReJamming vs them post, If It's gonna have the same result (I.E), them calling us and us doubling up vs calling down post-flop on such a board runout where they potentially did end up sucking out vs us with 2pair and anything else for that matter.

What I mean, Is this, If you're more than likely sure, that your a "Stick with It type of player" (Those types that go to the end with TPMK type of hands or TPTK), than, by calling down A) We never really know where we stand post (As we're Just calling down and under repping our hand from the get-go), B) We don't really guarantee a full double up (On the times that V Is bluffing and as such can't triple barrel bluff A.I on bubble to apply max pressure vs us) and as such we lose value, by not GII pre and running the variance for a chance @ a full double.

 

[Flight777sem]

I am talking about keep calling because i believe in these kind of spots big stacks just messing around or over playing %80 percent of the time.Also he knows we won’t call that show almost never. I wouldn’t 3 bet or show to get max value. Sure we don’t know the table dynamic and don’t have any information about that person,i am not saying this is the right play or anything.In addition, I wouldn’t play it every time same but I’d keep calling it most of the time.