$300 NLHE MTT: wednesday 100k river non nut flush facing raise on paired board

[duggs]

pokerstars - $300+$20|50/100 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3: http://www.pokertracker.com

SB: 6,475.00
Hero (BB): 4,795.00
UTG: 2,252.00
UTG+1: 3,031.00
MP: 5,440.00
MP+1: 4,143.00
LP: 3,000.00
CO: 4,390.00
BTN: 3,698.00

SB posts SB 50.00, Hero posts BB 100.00

Pre Flop: (150.00) Hero has 9d 8d

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 221.00, fold, Hero calls 121.00

Flop: (492.00, 2 players) 7d Jh 2s
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: (492.00, 2 players) Kd
Hero bets 265.00, BTN calls 265.00

River: (1022.00, 2 players) Jd
Hero bets 650.00, BTN raises to 1,690.00, Hero ???

villain steals like 60% over 30 or so hands,
pretty terrible postflop.

 

[baudib1]

Call.

 

[duggs]

why?

 

[baudib1]

Because we have a good hand and we're getting 3-1 against someone who is terrible postflop.

 

[Matt Vaughan]

why?

Were you scared of a FH here? IMO he doesn't have it enough of the time for me to be worried about folding. I'm not shipping it, but not folding. Definitely a call for me as well. We don't have to win all the time for this to be a profitable call, and a flush is very strong here.

 

[duggs]

by terrible i mean he is very face up in how he bets and calls.
what do we beat that raises the river which doesnt bet flop or raise turn?

 

[duggs]

do you think villain raises AJ/Jx but doesnt cbet it?

 

[duggs]

Were you scared of a FH here? IMO he doesn't have it enough of the time for me to be worried about folding. I'm not shipping it, but not folding. Definitely a call for me as well. We don't have to win all the time for this to be a profitable call, and a flush is very strong here.

there is also higher and lower flushes than ours in his range imo

 

[Matt Vaughan]

there is also higher and lower flushes than ours in his range imo

If he's so terrible postflop he could be drastically mis-evaluating your hand strength. And as baudib said, we're getting 3 to 1 on a call. Is he going to be flatting stuff like A-X and Q-X of diamonds IP preflop? If yes, then I guess I might be a little worried about the raise? But I don't think ever enough to fold.

 

[duggs]

If he's so terrible postflop he could be drastically mis-evaluating your hand strength. And as baudib said, we're getting 3 to 1 on a call. Is he going to be flatting stuff like A-X and Q-X of diamonds IP preflop? If yes, then I guess I might be a little worried about the raise? But I don't think ever enough to fold.

replace terrible with face up then, given the buy in he is not horrendous.
he raised preflop, i flatted, he checked behind, called turn, raised river. with wide starting ranges i dont see him ever checking back J or a set very often on the flop. and with the 7d out there the number of lower flushes is only a few combos.

 

[baudib1]

You can rule out or heavily discount most FHs because surely he will be betting the flop or raising the turn with most sets/2 pair combos like J7/KJ etc. And if he can check the flop with a set or flat turn with a set or two pair then surely he sometimes check back something like Jx once in a while.

I mean our hand is reasonably well-disguised and this is a donkament. Even for a wide range there aren't that many combos of better hands that even a face-up player would end up with here. He could just put you on KQ or something and figure that he can beat that so raises the river.

I think he is going to end up with some poorly played hand often enough to make this a decent call.

 

[duggs]

Ok noted, i dont think he ever checks back a J at all, i also think he has a full house almost never, i think that he turns up with the nut or K high flush a shit ton here.

but then he flips over 105dd and my head hurts

 

[Matt Vaughan]

but then he flips over 105dd and my head hurts

Oof that doesn't feel good...