$30 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: $$30 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: $30 Buy-In Freezeout, what to do on river?

[mauikisi]

$30 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: $$30 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: $30 Buy-In Freezeout, what to do on river?

This was the 6th hand of the tourney. $30+3 Buy-In, 80 entries top 9 gets paid, 6.000 starting stack.

2nd hand in the table for villain and 2nd open raise from him.


Pre Flop: Me(UTG) with [Ks,Kd] (don't know why it says I'm UTG, I was in MP).
noneed2tilt(MP) raises 60, andudiaz(MP) calls 60, repoman55(MP) folds, Me(UTG) raises 180, mateopoker(LP) folds, IveysGranny(CO) folds, AnomanderR(BTN) folds, spud01(SB) folds, MonsterWhale(BB) folds, noneed2tilt(MP) calls 120, andudiaz(MP) folds


Flop: (7s,4c,2h) (2 players)
noneed2tilt(EP) checks, Me(LP) bets 250, noneed2tilt(EP) calls 250


Turn: 8d (2 players)
noneed2tilt(EP) checks, Me(LP) bets 600, noneed2tilt(EP) calls 600


River: As (2 players)

Thoughts on what I should do on river? Go for value or just check behind?

I would really appreciate some opinions, thanks.

 

[Henreiman]

Raise bigger pre with two limps. ~300 is appropriate.

Bet bigger post. 3/4 pot at least.

C/c on turn makes me put him on a pocket pair, perhaps pair + gutshot. I expect him to c/r 56 and sets on the turn after you double barrel (he knows you either have something or will likely shut down river anyways). A7s or A4s is a remote possibility, as is A5s.

River only hits your range if you're double barreling AJ-AK on that flop, which I expect about 0% of the time. As V, I'm expecting you to show up here with 9s+ a decent amount of the time and rarely air. For that reason, he's betting A7s and A4s. When he checks, we likelyhave him beat (unless he has A5s and is calling a river bet with showdown value).

So, we have to ask ourselves what he's calling our thin value river bet with. Facing 3 streets of aggression, with the 'scare' card on the river, the hands we have beat likely fold (pair + gutshots, middle pairs). If he's running a weird line with sets/two pairs/nuts and hopes you have an A in your hand to bet river, we puke vs a check/raise. If he rivered the A with some weird combo draw, we're throwing away money. Seems like a check.

 

[baudib1]

bet ~ 1100

 

[mauikisi]

Raise bigger pre with two limps. ~300 is appropriate.

Bet bigger post. 3/4 pot at least.

C/c on turn makes me put him on a pocket pair, perhaps pair + gutshot. I expect him to c/r 56 and sets on the turn after you double barrel (he knows you either have something or will likely shut down river anyways). A7s or A4s is a remote possibility, as is A5s.

River only hits your range if you're double barreling AJ-AK on that flop, which I expect about 0% of the time. As V, I'm expecting you to show up here with 9s+ a decent amount of the time and rarely air. For that reason, he's betting A7s and A4s. When he checks, we likelyhave him beat (unless he has A5s and is calling a river bet with showdown value).

So, we have to ask ourselves what he's calling our thin value river bet with. Facing 3 streets of aggression, with the 'scare' card on the river, the hands we have beat likely fold (pair + gutshots, middle pairs). If he's running a weird line with sets/two pairs/nuts and hopes you have an A in your hand to bet river, we puke vs a check/raise. If he rivered the A with some weird combo draw, we're throwing away money. Seems like a check.

Thanks for your analysis.

I agree with what you said on river. I think that with the A on river it is a scary card for V if he has been calling me with just a pair (I could hit all my AK-AT, plus the chance on me having an overpair), so I think I can't get much value from hands that I beat in that spot, only with 99-QQ (with QQ very unlikely as played), and maybe top pair.

But I think that a bet from me in that spot isn't EV+ since there's a huge chance of him folding a bet of 60% or more of the pot with a hand that I beat, and there are reasonable chances of him taking a weird line and trying to set me up, or just to check call AK-AQ-A5.

So I can basically win 'little' or lose 'big', that's why I opted to check behind too (I'll post the results later, I hope you guys keep making analysis).

Now, I would like to know why you would 3bet to 300? It's the first hand that I'm playing (only 6 hands dealt tho) and I think I'm getting to fold a lot of their range there (remember blinds are 10-20). I mean, I hope to play this pot HU, but I think that a 3bet from 3bb to 15bb is too much. I only made it to 9bb, so please I'm really interested why do you think that a 3bet to 300 is better there.

Also the 3/4 post flop bets. Why do you think that 55% on that flop and 63% on the turn are bad sizings?

Thanks

 

[mauikisi]

bet ~ 1100

What range of hands are you expecting to call that bet? Taking in consideration that if I was betting two streets with air, there's a huge chance on me hitting on the river, so I think I'm looking very strong with a river bet.

 

[baudib1]

pairs

 

[Henreiman]

I misread hand thinking that noneed2tilt limped, not raised pre. You should probably note the blinds, I assume now its 10/20. This actually could change the analysis slightly as our player looks very passive and could be calling a river bet with overpairs. Still may check the river, will think more later.

Also, bet bigger because it gets more money in and chances are if he's calling 50% he's calling 75%.

 

[mauikisi]

I misread hand thinking that noneed2tilt limped, not raised pre. You should probably note the blinds, I assume now its 10/20. This actually could change the analysis slightly as our player looks very passive and could be calling a river bet with overpairs. Still may check the river, will think more later.

Also, bet bigger because it gets more money in and chances are if he's calling 50% he's calling 75%.

Ok, agree with the bet sizings. I'll be waiting on what to do on river, since that's my main question (I checked behind btw, but I want someone to prove me wrong).

 

[baudib1]

river is a really easy value bet and it's not particularly close. When you check back the best hand 90% of the time you lost value.

 

[Henreiman]

Have to agree with Baudib although I could definitely give it a bit more consideration, the preflop raise makes his range wide enough to go for value (9s-JJ)

 

[kanselau]

This was the 6th hand of the tourney. $30+3 Buy-In, 80 entries top 9 gets paid, 6.000 starting stack.

2nd hand in the table for villain and 2nd open raise from him.


Pre Flop: Me(UTG) with [Ks,Kd] (don't know why it says I'm UTG, I was in MP).
noneed2tilt(MP) raises 60, andudiaz(MP) calls 60, repoman55(MP) folds, Me(UTG) raises 180, mateopoker(LP) folds, IveysGranny(CO) folds, AnomanderR(BTN) folds, spud01(SB) folds, MonsterWhale(BB) folds, noneed2tilt(MP) calls 120, andudiaz(MP) folds


Flop: (7s,4c,2h) (2 players)
noneed2tilt(EP) checks, Me(LP) bets 250, noneed2tilt(EP) calls 250


Turn: 8d (2 players)
noneed2tilt(EP) checks, Me(LP) bets 600, noneed2tilt(EP) calls 600


River: As (2 players)

Thoughts on what I should do on river? Go for value or just check behind?

I would really appreciate some opinions, thanks.

Bet half pot - fold to raise

 

[kanselau]

I misread hand thinking that noneed2tilt limped, not raised pre. You should probably note the blinds, I assume now its 10/20. This actually could change the analysis slightly as our player looks very passive and could be calling a river bet with overpairs. Still may check the river, will think more later.

Also, bet bigger because it gets more money in and chances are if he's calling 50% he's calling 75%.

This is the start of the tornament no need to go crazy with one pair just yet.
A pair of aces is just 1 pair , one pair is a small hand , small hand = small pot .
No need to create a monster pot, heros sizing is fine . Create monster pots with monster hands only.

 

[mauikisi]

river is a really easy value bet and it's not particularly close. When you check back the best hand 90% of the time you lost value.

Have to agree with Baudib although I could definitely give it a bit more consideration, the preflop raise makes his range wide enough to go for value (9s-JJ)

Ok, we can go for value there with 9s-QQ, that's for sure, but is he going to call me a 70%+ pot bet on river with my range of hands and with that river?

I mean there's not that much value that I can get on river (A catches a lot of my bluffs, plus the chance of me having an overpair as played), so I think there's a huge chance on him folding a 70%+ river bet.

Also I don't have the nuts and he may be slowplaying a set or straight, or c/c with AK-AQ...what if he raises? There's a chance he may be doing that and I would lose big in that spot and it's only the 6th hand of the tourney.

Anyways, after all you analysis I came to the conclusion that I should value bet it, but I'm still not 100% sure about it, it's more like a 70-30 lol.

Villain had Th8h btw (can't believe his call on flop). Maybe he was planing to bluff later and that 8 on turn slowed him down. So, in this particular case I did lost some value at not betting the river.

 

[baudib1]

it's a donkament ffs, if you don't realize that people can call you with any kind of amazing hand what are you doing playing $33s?

Also I don't have the nuts and he may be slowplaying a set or straight, or c/c with AK-AQ...what if he raises?

if you're not confident betting without the nuts then how many pots are you winning?

there's basically no way he checks 3 times in a 3-bet pot with a hand that beats KK. If he open shoved the river you'd have an interesting thread but otherwise this is a pretty clear bet/bet/bet situation.

also it's not 70% pot it's 1/2.

 

[mauikisi]

it's a donkament ffs, if you don't realize that people can call you with any kind of amazing hand what are you doing playing $33s?


if you're not confident betting without the nuts then how many pots are you winning?

there's basically no way he checks 3 times in a 3-bet pot with a hand that beats KK. If he open shoved the river you'd have an interesting thread but otherwise this is a pretty clear bet/bet/bet situation.

also it's not 70% pot it's 1/2.

Of course I value bet a lot without the nuts, but in this particular case I didn't feel very confortable since was the 6th hand of the tournament against an unknown, and pot was already decent enough.

After all your analysis now I know that I was wrong and I should value bet those spots.

If he c/r the river we fold right?

 

[Henreiman]

This is the start of the tornament no need to go crazy with one pair just yet.
A pair of aces is just 1 pair , one pair is a small hand , small hand = small pot .
No need to create a monster pot, heros sizing is fine . Create monster pots with monster hands only.

Too used to cash games/cg analysis, you're right of course.

 

[kanselau]

Too used to cash games/cg analysis, you're right of course.

This is even more true in cash as we are often 100+ BB , getting stacked for 100 BB with just a pair is preety bad even if it is AA.