3 sets on the flop, WOW

titans4ever

titans4ever

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I was playing a free 50k tournament on PS today (let the heckling begin) and went out with this hand. The hand closed the table so I could not pull it out of the instant hand history and they don't save free game histories. Wish I had it for this. Emailed support to see if they could help.

I have never seen this before.

blinds were 50/100. Some raises 3xBB I call with 55 and the BB calls also.

Flop is J 5 3 rainbow. BB bets the minimum, middle guy raises to 300, me being lowest of the 3 go all in. INSTANT CALL CALL by the other two.

Cards show, set 3s 5s and Js.

That flop was destined to have everyone all-in before the turn. Now who thinks online poker is rigged, lol.

As for hand analysis, should I have been able to snuff out the JJ with the reraise of player B? I put him on AJ and was being aggressive since player a bet the minimum. I almost fell out of my chair when the hole cards were shown. The guy with 33 probably thought he was about to triple up, I was till I saw the JJ.
 
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ChuckTs

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i am actually leaning toward thinking that it is actually rigged
think about every time you hear about a royal flush...isn't it always up against quads or another huge hand?

that sux though man...guess there was no way of lettin go of that one
wonder what the odds are of that happening
 
robwhufc

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ChuckTs said:
that sux though man...guess there was no way of lettin go of that one
wonder what the odds are of that happening
Huge, but if there are 100+ people on here playing 1,000+ hands a week, then that's 5 million hands a year - we're gonna see some wierd shit between the lot of us.

Not seen 3 sets in one hand, but have had the lower set twice against the same opponent in the same tourney before.

As for hand analysis, in a free tournament all 3 hands were going all in the second the flop was dealt. Maybe pros in the wsop would have folded, but you cant get away from that hand realistically.
 
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robwhufc said:
Huge, but if there are 100+ people on here playing 1,000+ hands a week, then that's 5 million hands a year - we're gonna see some wierd shit between the lot of us.

Not seen 3 sets in one hand, but have had the lower set twice against the same opponent in the same tourney before.

As for hand analysis, in a free tournament all 3 hands were going all in the second the flop was dealt. Maybe pros in the WSOP would have folded, but you cant get away from that hand realistically.

It's a whole different story live. It's possible to read your opponent for massive strength, not so on the internet. With a flop that friendly, it's pretty much impossible to put your opponent on a massive hand like that unless he's been playing so tight he squeaks beforehand.
 
titans4ever

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OK, bill or some of the other math majors, I would like to know with 3 people in the hand with PP, what are the odds all 3 will hit their sets on the flop. This has to be one in a million type hand at least.

I am thinking in my poker history and I can not think of any time where I was smart enough to lay down a floped set. All I am thinking is how to get all their money in the middle before the next card. You have to assume you are ahead after the flop when you hit a flop like that. If you don't then you are playing way to tentatively.

I got my reply from PS support and there was nothing they could do to get it back, they did laugh because I had said what the hand was like and why I wanted it so badly.
 
Osmann

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titans4ever said:
OK, bill or some of the other math majors, I would like to know with 3 people in the hand with PP, what are the odds all 3 will hit their sets on the flop. This has to be one in a million type hand at least.

this will happen 1 in 11385 times if you have 3 people with pocket pairs going into the flop.

(2/46)*(2/45)*(2/44)=11385
 
tenbob

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Osmann said:
this will happen 1 in 11385 times if you have 3 people with pocket pairs going into the flop.

(2/46)*(2/45)*(2/44)=11385

Yea but you have to factor in the odds of 3 people having pocket pairs in the first place. :)
 
Osmann

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tenbob said:
Yea but you have to factor in the odds of 3 people having pocket pairs in the first place. :)

If we take a look at a 10 player table, it will actually happen about 1 in 7 if I'm not mistaken (wich I probablly am :) )


(((78/1326)*(72/1225)*(66/1122))/(10*9*8))=6.82.

So to sum up.... You will see this exact scenario on a table with 10 people(if I didn't make a mistake in the last calculation) 1 time in average if you play 77,750 hands. So it's actually much more common than you hitting a royal flush. And i think you will see a showdown every time this happens, so you will not miss it when it happens at your table.
 
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robwhufc

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Osmann said:
If we take a look at a 10 player table, it will actually happen about 1 in 7 if I'm not mistaken (wich I probablly am :) )


(((78/1326)*(72/1225)*(66/1122))/(10*9*8))=6.82.

1 in 49, not 1 in 7.

My calculations - chance of player getting PP = 1 in 18.

Chance of 3 people being dealt PP - 1/18 x 1/18 x 1/18 = 1/5,832.

Different combinations of 3 people within 10 players = 120.

1/5,832 x 120 = 1/48.6

Times 48.6 by 11,385 (I think this is right) = 1 in 553,311 chance of 3 people flopping set
 
Osmann

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robwhufc said:
1 in 49, not 1 in 7.

My calculations - chance of player getting PP = 1 in 18.

Chance of 3 people being dealt PP - 1/18 x 1/18 x 1/18 = 1/5,832.

Different combinations of 3 people within 10 players = 120.

1/5,832 x 120 = 1/48.6

Times 48.6 by 11,385 (I think this is right) = 1 in 553,311 chance of 3 people flopping set

Actually the chance of getting a PP=1 in 17 (wich my fractions are very close to), but you still got it better than me. The correct equation should have been:

(78/1326)*(72/1225)*(66/1122)/(10*9*8/6)=40.92

So 3 people flopping a set will happen 1 in 465874
 
robwhufc

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Oops, there are 52 card in deck not 54 LOL!

I dont think you can get a 100% accurate figure - these figures are done on 3 players out of 10 getting pairs, and then each flopping a set, but 4,5 or more players can flop pairs in same hand (more and more unlikely), which then will reduce subsequent odds of 3 sets. It is a big number though!
 
Osmann

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The other players cards do not haver any influence on the odds of flopping 3 sets, cause they are unknown. Sometimes some of the outs you need to flop 3 sets will be gone, and sometimes all the outs will still be in the deck. So it evens out.
 
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