3$ rebuy on Stars: QQ is the new JJ

[jeffred1111]

Villain is real bad and not aware of positional concerns: plays a very agressive game, at least when it comes to raising first. He usually flats when it is reraised with overcards: I haven't seen him shove, so I don't know what he shoves with...

Can we call this ?

Stacks: - UTG with 2692 - UTG+1 with 17262 - MP1 with 13818 - MP2 with 4350 - MP3 with 16145 - CO with 26100 - BTN with 18185 - SB with 15209 - BB with 14480

Blinds: 150/300
Site: Pokerstars
- Dealt to MP1:

- Sklansky group 1
Preflop:
- 1 players fold.
- UTG+1 raises 600 to 900
- Hero raises 1500 to 2400
- 6 players fold.
- UTG+1 raises 14837 to 17237 [ all-in ]
- Total folds this street: 7

 

[DaveE]

Call a day long.

 

[jeffred1111]

And can I know why ? I haven't seen this guy shove AK, AQ but I have seen him flat it everytime. That does leave more combos that destroy me than the other way around if I'm not mistaken...

 

[shinedown.45]

fold, villian has AA/KK IMO.
It has happened to me time and time again while holding QQ, one raise,I re-raise then villian goes all-in, I hadn't given villian enough credit for having a strong hand, I would call the all-in just to see him flip over AA/KK.
As you had said it , if villian just had 2 overs he would have just called your bet.
Based on your read on your read of villian, fold.

 

[ChuckTs]

What are villain's stats so far? I think this is very read-dependent, and it's pretty hard to convey reads without stats in a HA, so I'm really not sure.

I will say that players tend to play nuts even 1/2 an hour after the add-on break, so I'd be inclined to call this. Then again if he's shown in the past that he'll flat call the pushing hands we hope to see in this spot (AK/AQ/JJ/TT), then it may turn our decision to a fold.

I'm kind of just ranting here but I think we need stats to make this decision.

 

[jeffred1111]

Stats were 35/15/1.7 so he was fishy, but I'd have trouble putting him on anything below JJ here: he liked to raise/call a lot.

 

[baconn]

simple, you should call

 

[ChuckTs]

Please, enough one-liner responses. Why do you think it's a simple call?

 

[switch0723]

tough spot, how has his stack differed the last few hands? has he raised a few times, been re raised, call then folded flop? if so he may be tilting a bit and pushing here because he has had enough of being reraised, thus a call here is the move.
If he has been on a steady increase in chips, then there would be no reason for him to do this without having the goods, that is especially true based on your reads. If you fold you will still have plenty of chips to work with based on the blind size. We can easily make up what we have lost with the raise by stealing blinds the next few orbits.

So based on your reads, unless he is on tilt, id be folding this

 

[jeffred1111]

^^^^Break-even at best: he really did play bad postflop, usually betting all the way when he had a mediocre hand and slowplaying when he had the goods.

I think the discussion has ended since this is, in fact, a very simple hand if you look at it from combo perspective.

As I said, the worse he can shove here, IMHO, is TT (but most assurely JJ), so there's the same number of combos that we beat and the same that we are a huge dog against + the other QQ. But since we are still very healthy if we fold and are basically flipping (or worse since we don't know if TT really is in his range and it is pushing it to include it), we should fold this with confidence.

Alas, I ended up calling and he held KK, busting me out. Just shows that in order to make it deep, you have to take risks, but you also have to take care of yourself and not make hasty decisions. Had I seen him shove AQ, my decision would'Ve been correct (or if I held KK), but in this spot, it wasn't.

 

[viking999]

What part of the tourney is it? It looks like we're past the rebuy but how far? Are we in or near the money? This is pretty crucial.

How many hands have you seen him play? You have a very specific read on this guy, and you seem to be very confident about it. If you've seen him play 250 hands, then that may be justified. Much less than that and I'm not going to be so sure.

As a general rule, without any read or regard to strategy, I think it's right to call here (ahead of JJ/TT, behind AA/KK, slightly ahead of AK). If your read is reliable, then it's a fold. Also, if it's near the money it's a clear fold, but if it's still in the rebuy or after the money bubble, then it's leaning towards a call.

So I don't think it's just that simple a hand.

 

[jeffred1111]

This is post rebuy.

 

[dj11]

Post re-buy, Lay it down. He has you stacked here. You are in the survival part of the tourney, and this is not a good place to put it all up for grabs. Thinking further, if this were pre rebuy, I'd lay it down too. The reason there would be that should the call be faulty, you'd have to start all over again.

This is a hand you want at either the beginning or end of things and in the middle of things, with a LAG more than willing to kill you, is an unnecessary gamble.

Lay it down.