3+R; 88 vs resteal

[ChuckTs]

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1000 (9 handed)

UTG (t33219)
UTG+1 (t32549)
MP1 (t13594)
MP2 (t1192)
Hero (t19450)
CO (t11270)
Button (t24085)
SB (t13745)
BB (t43945)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 8

, 8

.
2 folds, MP1 calls t1000, 1 fold, Hero raises to t3850, 2 folds, SB raises to t13745, 1 fold, MP1 folds, Hero ...

Villain has only played one of the last ~15 hands at this table. He raised all but like 1000 chips of his ~15BB stack, and took down the blinds. MP1 is a huge fish who has limped nearly all of his hands.

Last hand I squeezed all in for 14k over a 1600 minraise utg and a call, and took the pot down pf (with AKs fwiw).

What kind of range are we looking at and can we call?

 

[c9h13no3]

Interesting ring game you have there

Prodding aside, this is a pretty tough spot IMO. You've got 15BB's left if you fold, so you're in decent shape. This would mostly come down to how the rest of the table is playing, how soon the blinds escalate, and how close to the money you are.

If the table is quite passive, and I can make up the lost raise in blind steals, I'll probably fold this spot.

However, to speak to the villain's range, last time he stole the blinds in an unopened pot, and he held back some chips. Now he's pushing all in on top of your raise. IMO, this narrows down his range I'd guess to strong aces & pocket pairs.

And one other thing, this guy can't double us up completely. If we win, we do get a healthy 75% boost to our chipstack, but its not exactly the same as a double up. And if we lose, we're essentially out of the tournament with 5700 chips left. Thus, if we're going to be coinflipping for our lives, I'd like for it to be for a total 100% double up.

Btw, what's the buy-in. If it was a freeroll, I'd be calling all day

 

[ChuckTs]

3+R = $3 rebuy, the same one we were having the contest with.

 

[Rossta]

The problem is that you are hoping for, at best, a race. Most likely he has an overpair, espeicially if he's playing at least somewhat tight. You haven't put too much into the pot, control the damage and fold.

 

[Cheetah]

You can't call that. I would fold. In many cases, you will be behind against bigger pair or coin-flipping against overcards. If you lose, you are crippled. Basically, calling here means more or less putting your tourney on the line. That's not a good situation to do it.


However, I question how this was played pre-flop.

There are 2 ways to play 88 when you have 19BB

1. Play for set value
2. Steal the blinds with it

The players behind you were 11BB+. BB has a large stack. Since the Big Blind is the most likely player to give you some resistance, your stack size is relevant, which is 19BB. You need odds of 10 to 1 or better. Your raise completely killed the odds to draw for set value.

Stealing the blinds with 88 is not much different than stealing it with 72o except that you are not likely to get into trouble with 72o. The value is that if you get called with 88, you still have some value to fall back on. If you get called by one of the blinds, you also have position which might be able to save the day.

Additional difficulty with stealing is the limper. Even if the blinds call, the limper may decide the pot is big enough to call as well. Also, they could be trapping with a huge hand.

For these reasons, I think the better play was to limp behind and go for set value. The odds are there in unraised pot.

If the SB raised, you could have just folded losing 1BB.

 

[arkadiy]

Why does your hand history look so strange? :\

 

[ChuckTs]

hand converter

 

[arkadiy]

I like normal pokerstars a lot better and easier to read :\

 

[ChuckTs]

I don't

 

[jaymfc]

easy fold for me . race for your tourney life on 88 ? not me , unless shortstacked .

 

[shinedown.45]

If the table is quite passive, and I can make up the lost raise in blind steals, I'll probably fold this spot.

However, to speak to the villain's range, last time he stole the blinds in an unopened pot, and he held back some chips. Now he's pushing all in on top of your raise. IMO, this narrows down his range I'd guess to strong aces & pocket pairs.

^^^^this^^^^

 

[burntrider]

im going with a smaller pair or AK AQ suited. (being optimistic) call him or get him to push the rest, besides you made the first move in a tiny battle where the chip stacks are the same. He knows that you have something big, but not a pair. he figures hes got your ace out kicked.

or he's got KK. whatever.

 

[ChuckTs]

Getting roughly 2:1 a call is pretty enticing and it only becomes an unprofitable call if he's doing this with nothing worse than AQs+, AK and 99+, but even so I think the fact is that he hasn't got very much fold equity and thus probably has a pretty tight range.

I opted for a fold so I could survive and find a better spot (15BB is still very much alive) and he mucked.

 

[jeffred1111]

Insta-fold, you might be good 33%+ of the time here since all the stupid hands that he could do this with have us flipping anyway (45% equity against AT+,KT+,QJ,99+) and I can't see 77- played this way. Plus, if we reevaluate towards a more realistic range of 99+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+, we are only have 40% equity. If we take in consideration that it's not a true double up plus putting our tournament life on the line, it becomes quite easily a fold.


You'll make up for it in lost blinds.

 

[baconn]

He has to have a pair QQ or better. AK AQ would be too opimistic. I would still call.

 

[jeffred1111]

He has to have a pair QQ or better. AK AQ would be too opimistic. I would still call.

No. Just no, unless you have a good read, we have to give a wider range than this. It ain't 1978 anymore you know ?