$3 NLHE STT: Can villain ever fold here? ICM implications?

[tzuriel]

I was a big chip leader with 3 left in this SnG. I was shoving a lot at this point with double the chips of the 2nd place guy and 5x of the 3rd place guy. I shove here and when V calls, he clearly has a premium hand and he knows the other player will fold. Since I have V covered, is it ever correct to fold JJ in this spot? I obviously get extremely lucky here but would ICM say fold JJ? Or is it just too good to fold here?

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem $3+$0.30 (200.00BB)
HERO ($10509)
SB ($5302)
BB ($2189)

Dealt to Hero: A♠ 4♦

HERO Raises To $10509 (allin), SB Calls $5177 (allin), BB Folds

Flop ($16036): T♣ 4♠ 4♣

Turn ($16036): T♣ 4♠ 4♣ T♥

River ($16036): T♣ 4♠ 4♣ T♥ 8♠


SB shows: J♣ J♥

HERO wins: $10829

 

[fundiver199]

It depends on the payjumps. If this was a classic 9-man paying 50/30/20, then the Nash equilibrium has him calling with 99+, AK, AQs, and folding JJ would be a very sizable mistake. You can find the answer to questions like this by plugging the scenario into ICMizer yourself. They give you a free daily simulation for signing up. By the way I am not a big fan of open jamming for 27BB effective. I think, you can use your stack much more effectively by making a small open to 2,0-2,5BB with a wider range, and then make some decisions, if you get action.

 

[tzuriel]

It depends on the payjumps. If this was a classic 9-man paying 50/30/20, then the Nash equilibrium has him calling with 99+, AK, AQs, and folding JJ would be a very sizable mistake. You can find the answer to questions like this by plugging the scenario into ICMizer yourself. They give you a free daily simulation for signing up. By the way I am not a big fan of open jamming for 27BB effective. I think, you can use your stack much more effectively by making a small open to 2,0-2,5BB with a wider range, and then make some decisions, if you get action.

Thank you.

Yes. This was a standard 9man SnG paying 50/30/20. I actually have an ICMizer subscription and it says shoving is slightly +EV. (.04%) I shoved because he had been pretty tight and was folding a LOT to my shoves. He'd have to have a big hand to call since the other stack was so much shorter. I figured I had at least 30% equity with my A4o, but I totally hear. you. Smaller opening is probably better. I just got really lucky.
How do I enter villain's hand in ICMizer?

 

[fundiver199]

I actually have an ICMizer subscription and it says shoving is slightly +EV. (.04%)

But this just mean, we should not fold. It does not tell us, if raising small with our entire range is more +EV than open jamming.

I shoved because he had been pretty tight and was folding a LOT to my shoves.

Sure but even against a small raise he has a lot of incentive to get out of the way and hope, you bust the short stack behind him. So even a small raise should make him fold a ton, whereas the short stack is supposed to give wider action.

How do I enter villain's hand in ICMizer?

You just place Hero in his seat (SB) and then enter the action ahead of him (BTN jamming).

 

[tzuriel]

But this just mean, we should not fold. It does not tell us, if raising small with our entire range is more +EV than open jamming.


Sure but even against a small raise he has a lot of incentive to get out of the way and hope, you bust the short stack behind him. So even a small raise should make him fold a ton, whereas the short stack is supposed to give wider action.

Ah...I see what you mean. And if I make it 2x or 2.5x and he shoves, are you folding?

You just place Hero in his seat (SB) and then enter the action ahead of him (BTN jamming).

Ok cool. Thanks!

 

[fundiver199]

Ah...I see what you mean. And if I make it 2x or 2.5x and he shoves, are you folding?

Yes A4o is way to bad to call a rejam for 26,5BB.