$3 NLHE MTT: Final Table 3 handed. Good turn semi-bluff or no?

[WestJeff]

This the final table of a low stakes MTT on ACR. The villian on the button was playing pretty good TAG as far as could tell. I had about 30bb to start, the other two players had about 60bb. Is this a good turn bluff? I feel like I could have a lot of value hands on the turn. I had been playing pretty tight as well, not splashing around too much. I wish I would have done two things different: checkraise the flop rather than turn, and simply overbet all in on the turn if I am going to checkraise the turn. Thoughts?


https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/1q1taQlF

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Standard defend.

Flop
In general A high boards are not the best to check-raise, because they tend to favour the preflop aggressor. You are also the short stack here, so you are not applying much pressure to him, and you are not deep enough to make him fold top pair, even if you move all-in on a later street. So I prefer to just call and take the price on my OESD, as you did.

Turn
The dubble barrel is typically a stronger range than the C-bet, and the K of diamonds was not a good card for you. It might have improved him to a set, two pair or even a made straight, in which case you are basically drawing dead. He might also have picked up a diamond draw, in which case two of your "outs" will get you stacked AKA reverse implied odds. And finally a Q will put a 1-liner on the board, meaning you are unlikely to get paid, and some percentage of the time you will be chopping. So even getting 4:1 this is actually a spot, where I might even consider to just say forget it and fold, and I dont think, this is a good spot to attack with a check-raise.

River
When he call you on the turn, I dont think, there is any chance, he is folding now, when he is getting better than 3:1. Its not like, any draws completed, and the extra A on the board makes it less likely, you have one in your hand. So I would just check and give up. Even if we have no showdown value, it does not mean, we *have* to bluff, if the bluff will not get through often enough.

Results
I am somewhat surpriced, that "a solid TAG" called you down with QQ here, or for that matter even that he barreled it on flop and turn. But maybe he had a read on you, and it just highlight, why this was not a good bluff in my opinion.

 

[WestJeff]

All very good points. Looking back on the situation now I can definitely see my mistakes more clearly. I was also surprised to see he had QQ in this spot. He actually did tank for quite a while on the river, giving me some false hope.

 

[fundiver199]

He actually did tank for quite a while on the river, giving me some false hope.

Not exactly like, this was a slowroll though

 

[WestJeff]

Haha, one hell of a slow roll indeed.

 

[fundiver199]

Going back to why he called, maybe he was thinking, that the main hand, that takes this line for value, is QJ, and he blocked half the combos of QJ. You probably dont have AK or KK, because you did not 3-bet, and maybe he thought, KT or K8 would just call turn, and that flopped sets or two pair would have raised the flop. And if QJ is the main value hand in your range, then QQ or JJ are actually some of the better hands to call with. On the turn he also had a gutshot himself. Or he was just like "LOL I have QQ, its so pretty, I cant fold"

 

[WestJeff]

I do agree QQ is one of the best hands to call with if it gets to the river. My problem though is how he got there. IMO he should’ve folded turn. I would definitely play some two pairs this way, as well as Ax s hands. I really see no reason to check raise two pair on the flop or a weak ace, but I see plenty of reasons to raise both on the turn. I think he just fell in love with the queens and/or is a calling station or he is a poker genius.

 

[fundiver199]

For me if I bet the flop with QQ and get called, its a pretty trivial check back on the turn and then make a decision on the river. I dont see his turn bet doing much good. No better hand fold, and not enough worse hands call either.