$3 NLHE: How much to bet here?

[TheNoob]

$3 NL HE: How much to bet here?

Obviously the diamonds are a concern here, but I think betting is correct.

Not confident with my bet sizing here. How much?

The pot is $600.

pokerstars Game #31332756408: Tournament #185248809, $3.00+$0.40 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2009/08/06 21:20:48 ET
Table '185248809 3' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: migidy (3650 in chips)
Seat 2: pedro-david (3355 in chips)
Seat 3: pokerking350 (2500 in chips)
Seat 4: I RA RA RAYS (3320 in chips)
Seat 5: Joachim23 (3295 in chips)
Seat 7: duffester (2635 in chips)
Seat 8: Jopeka72 (4195 in chips)
I RA RA RAYS: posts small blind 75
Joachim23: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Joachim23 [9s 8h]
duffester: folds
Jopeka72: folds
migidy: calls 150
pedro-david: calls 150
pokerking350: folds
I RA RA RAYS: calls 75
Joachim23: checks
*** FLOP *** [6d 7d 5d]
I RA RA RAYS: checks
Joachim23: bets ?

 

[t1riel]

I would make it more than the pot, around $800-$1000.

 

[Jillychemung]

Rough spot. Any reads? I'm either playing pot control here by checking or betting 800 based on reads of the other 3. Without any info I'd check. I doubt that a pot sized bet here will chase out anyone with the Ad and I don't really want to build a big pot with 2 cards to come still.

 

[JustRaiseTheBlinds]

I would make a pot bet on this one...
Think you have to play a blank turn very aggresive...

 

[TheNoob]

No reads of any import in this situation.

I bet $600 and all folded.

I was thinking more about it, and what would have been interesting is if someone came over the top, say, to $1200.

Insta fold?

So difficult to do in these games. You would see big PP's do this, sets would do this, and you might even see the Kd and Ad do this.

 

[Jillychemung]

This is where you need to spend time using PokerStove or Hold'em Ranger and plug in some hand ranges. For example

Board: 7d 6d 5d

Wins Ties equity
47.42% 0.30% 47.73% ( 9s8h )
51.97% 0.30% 52.27% ( AdJ+ )

If you put just one opponent having the Ad and another face card, you are actually behind (due to all the diamond face cards).

Board: 7d 6d 5d

Wins Ties Equity
63.23% 0.35% 63.59% ( 9s8h )
36.06% 0.35% 36.41% ( AdJs-AdKs,AdJh-AdKh,AdJc-AdKc )

If you eliminate all the diamond face cards then you improve to a 64-36 favorite.

Now you see why you have to make a large bet at the pot if you are betting to make the pot odds incorrect for an opponent w/o a made hand to call. But then you have to add in the level of the game where a lot of opponents will chase a 4-flush to the river especially if they have the Ad which is why I said even a pot sized bet won't fold away those chasers.

 

[andosalado]

Rough spot. Any reads? I'm either playing pot control here by checking or betting 800 based on reads of the other 3. Without any info I'd check. I doubt that a pot sized bet here will chase out anyone with the Ad and I don't really want to build a big pot with 2 cards to come still.

Ok you check... ¿but what you do if someone bets?, it's a very dificult decision.

Maybe is right not to get commited with a hand that might be already beaten, maybe you are ahead and you fold the best hand against a draw, or even a pair.

 

[SuperDonk]

...
Now you see why you have to make a large bet at the pot if you are betting to make the pot odds incorrect for an opponent w/o a made hand to call. But then you have to add in the level of the game where a lot of opponents will chase a 4-flush to the river especially if they have the Ad which is why I said even a pot sized bet won't fold away those chasers.

Help out a super donkey here. Why? What if you make a big bet and the other guy already has 2 diamonds, or you make a big bet and he has one and is just stupid enough - like most of my opponents - to chase?

Also, how do you play it if you make that big bet and the chaser or made flush calls? Do you keep betting, hoping the chaser doesn't make his flush, but potentially costing you a large portion of your stack? Or do you shut it down and nurse your stack because you you think someone has made a flush?

OTH, if you don't bet, and someone bets into you, what does that mean? Are they stealing, semi-bluffing a flush draw, straight, or flush? Whew, the possibilities confuse me (btw, I'm brand new to poker).

Thanks

 

[Jillychemung]

This is one of the toughest spots in tournament poker. In EP with a medium-good made hand but one that can't improve to the nuts, M in the middle teens to low 20s and multiple players both before and after you. This is not a WA/WB situtation since any other player with the Ad or Kd has good odds to draw. This is where reads are SO SO important, any read. This will dictate your course of action.

Play pot control and try to get to showdown for less than 1K by calling small bets but give up to a large bet. Play aggressive and try to force out the draws with a big flop bet but give up to pressure. Play passive and make small bets on the flop and turn and check the river. Any of the 3 could be the right tactic.

 

[bgomez89]

Help out a super donkey here. Why? What if you make a big bet and the other guy already has 2 diamonds, or you make a big bet and he has one and is just stupid enough - like most of my opponents - to chase?


Thanks

If he chases and he hits, at least you won some sklansky bucks

 

[JohnnyFronts]

Barring any reads i'm actually betting this flop all day and all night. Someone has to have flopped a flush to have you beat, otherwise you have the best hand. The rest of the line suggestion would be too read dependent.

Supply opponent reads for a more in depth analysis.