This is a discussion on $3.50 NLHE STT Turbo: Set vs UK villain Bet sizing OTT within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Hand Analysis section; A friend of mine (hero) played this hand, and I disagreed with his play, so I wanted to post and see what you all think.
Increase flop bet sizing, then over shove the turn.
I agree. With so many draws out there, you wanna be a bit more aggressive to reduce their odds, but not so much that they don't want to continue drawing out if they are on a draw. It's a fine balance, but I lean more towards aggression because if they fold you are winning the hand no matter what.
re: Poker & $3.50 NLHE STT Turbo: Set vs UK villain Bet sizing OTT
Based on the effective stack and the blinds being so low hero would have to raise large pre and then pot to setup an underpot shove on the turn. Assuming the 1380 is before any action it would take a 3.25x ish raise pre and then a pot sized flop bet to make it about a pot sized turn shove. Since that didnt happen and not saying it should have either, this makes this a 3 street hand to get all of the chips in. With that being known I like betting the flop anywhere from 130-160. Assuming we get called like in this hand, then I would be betting turn a little more % of the pot then the flop to setup the river shove and to charge any draws. As played I like a fairly large turn bet in the 350 range to charge draws and Jx hands. The board put a second club out there on top of the straight draw so there are some sticky players with draws here that would call a bet of 350. Unfortunately draws will not call the river when nothing comes in but the hand does not set up for a turn jam since anything less than a straight (outside maybe 2 pair) probably folds to us.
I think I would play this hand expecting to only get two streets of value and knowing most likely I could not get it in against a hand that I beat and for the villain to call with that inferior hand. Therefore I would look to get two decent sized bets in on flop and turn of at least half pot. Hard to expect anything more unless its set over set or villain has J9.
The fifty/50 on Pokerstars have no antes in the early blind levels, so stack sizes should be accurate in this hand history.
Obviously a standard open with TT, and I think, the 2,5BB size is totally fine.
Not the greatest board to flop a set, since KQ, Q8 and 87 flopped a straight, and a lot of other hands flopped some kind of straightdraw. Maybe Q8 and 87o are unlikely from the preflop action (unless Villain is a whale of course), but he certainly has a decent amount of flopped straights. Even so I am still betting for value, and I have no problem with the half pot size either.
This was a great card for Hero, since it did not put out any 1-liner to the straight. The cards, Hero really does not want to see, are K, Q, 8 or 7. I also think, a flopped straight would be raised a decent amount of the time, so I would certainly bet for value again. Pot is 520, and Villain is the effective stack with 1150 left. To me half pot again is completely fine, but I could also go with sizing up a little like betting 300-350. Setting it up for an easy jam on a clean river. It does suck, if we get raised now, but we still have 10 outs to fill up on the river, so we would probably have to just hate life and call it off.