$3.50 NLHE STT Turbo: On the bubble - push, fold or call BB AQs v UTG limp

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Transitley

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Hello All,

This is my first hand analysis so pleased I've managed to convert into the replayer!

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I'm guessing that ICM 'wise' the shove is correct, but based on the way Villain was playing, very straight forward, I immediately thought 'He has KK' when he limped (as I block AA, QQ too weak to do this and I block it too). However, I'm on a massive downswing, which is fine but recognising this thought, 'don't put him on one hand' just because things aren't going your way, analyse the situation and make the right move.' I think I probably did - he could have been using his image to double bluff the nuts UTG with a limp.

On reflection, I could have called and see if an Ace hits but then if a Queen hits I'm still getting stacked.

After any thoughts, people have. Apologies if this is a bit basic and in the 'bad luck category - suck it up' which I think I am doing :)
 
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300HPGOD

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With the effective stack in this hand beings villains at just under 10 BBs yes this is a shove. Your hand is very strong and its even stronger 4 handed and when the amount of fold equity should be at its peak. This player is 3 of 4 even though just barely they might be scared of going out assuming this is a 9 man and not a 6 man meaning top 3 get paid. You would need some specific read to not feel good about jamming this hand like this player never ever open limps so here might be a monster but even then I would need to be absolutely sure of it not to jam and to only complete our option in the BB. Jamming here is correct and bad luck 4 handed that you ran into one of the few hands that is way ahead of you.
 
Q

QA77

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Definitely shoving this and living with the results. He could have some suited hands like JT and limps. AQ is just too strong here.
 
dallam

dallam

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Thank you for the post :)

I think that at this point he just can't ever limp with KK, it is such a brainless move. He opened the doors to you as BB to improve, cause maybe if 4 of you are on low BBs, but there's no guarantee that a very low flop not favour you here and punish the kings.

While you did the correct move to push him in an elimination situation, as you had a very strong hand, and cover his stack to say its very smart to punish the limper with the max value move. So very-right move on your side, it was just unlucky to having 2 strong hands faced with each other, and you had the weaker.
 
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Transitley

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Thanks all, every contribution covered something I'd considered but wanted confirmation of, cracking responses. I certainly suspected he might have KK but can't ever be certain enough to make it anything other than a jam.

And, Dallam, this happens at this level all the time - its the go to play, limp in early position with AA or KK - people don't adjust to the table dynamic or number of people, just keep wheeling out the old move. I'm drawn to play more speculative hands in some of those cases
 
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fundiver199

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If you had a HUD running, and he had solid TAG stats like 21/17 or 18/15 with that small gap between VPIP and PFR, then it is worth pausing for a while here and considering, why a TAG suddenly open limp with a 10BB stack. That would indeed scream of the old silly limp trap, and I could see just taking a free flop with AQ. But apart from such information we simply can not put this player solely on aces or kings. This is a 3,5$ SnG, and lots of players are just bad and limp with all sorts of hands, they should have either jammed or folded.

Also with your specific holding its not like, you would have folded to an open jam, so its not even like, his "trap" gave him anything extra. The guy basically just got lucky to wake up with KK, when you had AQ in a situation, where stacks were short, and the chips had to go in preflop. So I certainly would not beat myself up over this one. 9 man SnGs are grinder games, so just register for the next one and hope for better luck next time.
 
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Badday94

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That guy was tricky. Well played by him. On the bubble I happend to get into this trap a few times so just a check and see the flop from me. Not worth jamming in my opinion.
 
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eetenor

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Hello All,

This is my first hand analysis so pleased I've managed to convert into the replayer!

CardsChat Poker Hands Converter

I'm guessing that ICM 'wise' the shove is correct, but based on the way Villain was playing, very straight forward, I immediately thought 'He has KK' when he limped (as I block AA, QQ too weak to do this and I block it too). However, I'm on a massive downswing, which is fine but recognising this thought, 'don't put him on one hand' just because things aren't going your way, analyse the situation and make the right move.' I think I probably did - he could have been using his image to double bluff the nuts UTG with a limp.

On reflection, I could have called and see if an Ace hits but then if a Queen hits I'm still getting stacked.

After any thoughts, people have. Apologies if this is a bit basic and in the 'bad luck category - suck it up' which I think I am doing :)


Thank you for posting

You state
he could have been using his image to double bluff the nuts UTG with a limp.

At low stake poker V have to demonstrate complex thinking before we can consider them being capable of it.
As we saw here the V did exactly what you thought they would do based on prior actions.
We do not need to consider a wide range for a player when no action indicates that.

Shoving here is not necessary as you can trap weak aces post flop in this spot. This V was a straight forward player so we can know exactly what they have based on their post flop actions. We might even get to show down with A high vs this type of player or XR bluff and win pots from this player type as well. If the V checks flop on many boards we can lead bet turn as a steal. We can also lead flop fold to a raise vs a straight forward player as well.


Hope this helps
:):)
 
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Transitley

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Thank you for posting

You state
he could have been using his image to double bluff the nuts UTG with a limp.

At low stake poker V have to demonstrate complex thinking before we can consider them being capable of it.
As we saw here the V did exactly what you thought they would do based on prior actions.
We do not need to consider a wide range for a player when no action indicates that.

Shoving here is not necessary as you can trap weak aces post flop in this spot. This V was a straight forward player so we can know exactly what they have based on their post flop actions. We might even get to show down with A high vs this type of player or XR bluff and win pots from this player type as well. If the V checks flop on many boards we can lead bet turn as a steal. We can also lead flop fold to a raise vs a straight forward player as well.


Hope this helps
:):)


Thanks, really insightful particularly as I believe I consistently over rate V's abilities and then don't take advantage of a situation eg getting value from a hand worried about getting beaten. Or check raising a villain on the flop who I think I can take off his hand with a non nutted hand and then get spanked -rather than just respecting the raise and folding
 
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LetterRip

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If the player doesn't habitually limp/fold 10BB and almost always open jams, this is almost certainly a trap to induce a jam from smaller PP. You regularly see AA/KK (and sometimes QQ-TT) when someone who never is limping an open jam stack, suddenly limps or minr in small stakes MTTs. Not sure if that dynamic is true of STTs but it is likely a lot of the same players so I suspect so.
 
azforlife

azforlife

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Don't be results-oriented! Is this play profitable over the long run? Are people open-limping monsters on the bubble? The answer's probably Yes & No
 
theANMATOR

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Agree with FD above - but prefer eetenors line much more.
Also - limping is a sissy move, a min-raise would give you some information you need. Completing and evaluating on the flop is also an option.

I don't fault your jam though - but at best your flipping - and why flip with A/Q off? A/K sure or JJ+ - but not A/Q off. I listen to a lot of podcasts, and pros are always making jokes about players busting out of events on day 5 with A/Q.
Yes - it's certainly a strong hand - but I don't look at it as a premium.
 
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Lochika

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If you think that you opponent range is kings pluse (wich I belive is the case in micro stakes online ), checking is definitely the play. Its all depand on you range of your opponent.
 
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