$3.50 NLHE STT: Ranging Villain first hand of STT.

[LuisBoaC]

It's the first hand of the tournament and I've never played this opponent before. What range do you have Villain on here at the turn and what action would you take?
I know I like my hand but the board is wet by the turn and Villain seems to like his hand too. But is he doing this with made hands better than mine (straights, sets)? Is he doing it with strong draws and one-pair hands? What can I assume with no prior info on him?
Also, do you think I need to be raising or check/raising the flop to protect my hand there? The board didn't look so scary then.

pokerstars, $3.11 + $0.39 - Hold'em No Limit - 10/20 (3 ante) - 9 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: 1,417 (71 bb)
UTG+1: 1,497 (75 bb)
MP: 1,497 (75 bb)
MP+1: 1,497 (75 bb)
LP: 1,497 (75 bb)
CO: 1,634 (82 bb)
BU: 1,487 (74 bb)
SB: 1,477 (74 bb)
BB (Hero): 1,497 (75 bb)

Pre-Flop: (57) Hero is BB with Q♦ 9♣
3 players fold, MP+1 raises to 40, 3 players fold, SB calls 30, Hero calls 20

Flop: (147) 4♥ 9♥ Q♠ (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP+1 bets 74, SB folds, Hero calls 74

Turn: (295) J♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP+1 bets 295

 

[eetenor]

It's the first hand of the tournament and I've never played this opponent before. What range do you have Villain on here at the turn and what action would you take?
I know I like my hand but the board is wet by the turn and Villain seems to like his hand too. But is he doing this with made hands better than mine (straights, sets)? Is he doing it with strong draws and one-pair hands? What can I assume with no prior info on him?
Also, do you think I need to be raising or check/raising the flop to protect my hand there? The board didn't look so scary then.

PokerStars, $3.11 + $0.39 - Hold'em No Limit - 10/20 (3 ante) - 9 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: 1,417 (71 bb)
UTG+1: 1,497 (75 bb)
MP: 1,497 (75 bb)
MP+1: 1,497 (75 bb)
LP: 1,497 (75 bb)
CO: 1,634 (82 bb)
BU: 1,487 (74 bb)
SB: 1,477 (74 bb)
BB (Hero): 1,497 (75 bb)

Pre-Flop: (57) Hero is BB with Q♦ 9♣
3 players fold, MP+1 raises to 40, 3 players fold, SB calls 30, Hero calls 20

Flop: (147) 4♥ 9♥ Q♠ (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP+1 bets 74, SB folds, Hero calls 74

Turn: (295) J♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP+1 bets 295

Thank you for posting

This is a situation where we would use player pool tendencies instead of direct reads on the villain. We have to do this because we cannot narrow this villains range to their playing style as we have no data.

How do we develop player pool tendency reads?

1 V bets flop then pots turn on a hand that makes straights and 2 pair hands. How often is that a thin value bet from your standard villain type? How often a bluff? How often a 2 pair+ hand?

2 The biggest player pool tendency by low stakes players is to call too often. Assuming our V know this and this hand demonstrates they do we can weight the above %'s to value hands and strong value at that = 2 pair plus. Not always but often we will see our V turn over QJ+ in this spot.

3 How often do your V 3 barrel thin value or bluff after a pot sized turn bet gets called?

In the lower stakes folding is less frequent everyone who plays knows this so river shoves also have a higher % of strong value after a pot turn bet gets called.
This means we can call turn and decide on rivers. Why?
It is the above distribution of range and the infrequent river bluff shove that allows us to estimate how strong an unknown V's hand is on river.

Hope this helps

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Standard defend.

Flop
With top two I want to fastplay, so I would go for a check-raise here. Stacks are 75BB deep, so its difficult to get the chips in without raising somewhere in the hand, and while you essentially flopped the nuts, your hand is very vulnerable, and a lot of different cards are very bad for you. So raising also gives you valuable protection by forcing him to either fold hands like gutshots or pay to draw with incorrect odds. For me this is not the situation to slowplay, because to many bad things can happen later in the hand.

Turn
This is a pretty gross card and pretty gross action, and this is exactly why, I dont like the passive flop play. Because you only check-called, he can absolutely have KT or T8, that just completed their gutshot. He can also have QJ, that turned a better two pair. As for his range I think, its skewed towards value. The bottom of his value range is probably KQ, so you do beat some hands, and for that reason I would now check-call. But I am not loving life any more, and if he bomb a blank river, I will most likely fold.

 

[300HPGOD]

On the flop with 2 to a suit out there I would do a mix of leading (which I dont do often but this is a spot where I will due to multiple opponents and draws out there) and check raising. I will check call on occasion but only if I know the opening villain to be a barreler because if we check call we do not want to see a street that goes check check. I think leading is actually best overall here since villain only min raised and a lot of the time will check behind if they have missed, the pot is a little small to go firing into 2 opponents with air (imo anyway). Check raising is best if you know villain will c bet so it does depend a bit on if you know villain and their tendencies.

As played when the turn comes its not a great card and the villains bet sizing gives away to me that they do not have a flush draw and that they improved somehow on the turn. They went from half pot to full pot bet. Some players are good enough to do this as a bluff but until they prove to me they do this I take the bet more at face value. Here I think jamming or raising is the last play that I would make out of the options. I think folding too nitty though so calling is my choice. On top of that, I believe as I mentioned that villain never has a flush draw here so my play would be I am lead jamming the river if a heart comes on the board as a bluff and can still get called by worse in a J9 which is possible for villain. That bluff might get picked off if villain has the straight but it puts QJ in a tough spot. I would rather go this route than jamming turn. If the river is not a heart or anything that helps us I would more than likely have to check fold which I dont like calling pot turn to fold river but we have to defend 2 pair a bit but at the same time believe our opponent eventually.

 

[Badday94]

I would raise 3x his bet on turn and if he jams, I call. Most likely he has a flush draw or has a queen. I believe you are ahead here with 2 pair.

 

[jaworek1405]

Hello, yeah, very unlucky hand. I think that hero play this hand not bad. If we didn't raise the flop, we should raise on the turn. This time opponent hit his some outs on the turn and we lost. I agree that we can raise this hand on the flop, because we are on deep stacks and his bet against deep stack is very small. This is even action flop, because some strong draws are possible, for example he can has hand jts and maybe why we should play this more aggressive on the flop. GL

 

[QA77]

I would put him on AA, KK, AQ, KQ, 44 and less likely QQ and 99. KT, QJ would be the other hand that beats you. You block the Q so less likely vs those hands. You still beat a lot of hands so folding is out of the question imo. I would probably raise and get it in vs overpair or top pair.

 

[LetterRip]

\
Pre-Flop: (57) Hero is BB with Q♦ 9♣
3 players fold, MP+1 raises to 40, 3 players fold, SB calls 30, Hero calls 20

Flop: (147) 4♥ 9♥ Q♠ (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP+1 bets 74, SB folds, Hero calls 74

Turn: (295) J♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP+1 bets 295

Q9o could have been fine as a squeeze or as a fold. I don't like a call though.


Flop. Villain is cbetting into a two callers that have calling ranges that hit this flop fairly well, though with a minr pre their ranges are a bit wider, and is using 1/2 pot sizing. I'd expect a stronger than average hand when he cbets here. You block many of his AQ, KQ, QJ, QT hands. So I'm thinking mostly AA,KK,JJ, 99, 44, some GSD+OC - KJs, some FD. some OESD.

Turn, you check, he pots. Ok at this point I'm thinking mostly nut range, the weakest part of his range here that he is value betting pot is AA, KK, maybe AQ, KQ. We are much more likely against the GSD straights that completed, a set on the flop, or JJ that just turned into a set. He has 12 combos AA/KK, he has 8 sets, he has 8 straights, he has (maybe) 6 QJ for two pair that beat you. There aren't that many draws you are beating that he will be barreling the turn with. AhKh with 12 outs; AhJh with 14 outs, AhQh w 12 outs, and JhTh with 17 outs, and 2 JTs with 8 outs. Maybe 2 KJ with 9 outs, plus a handful of heart SCs. Perhaps 2 combos

So 24 combos of thin value + draws, perhaps a bit more if we add in all the AQ, KQ. 20 combos of nuttier hands that beat you. If you call now, any heart, A, K, T on the river is fairly scary and you probably have to fold to a 3rd barrel. The 20 hands that beat you already might check if those scare cards hit, so if if checks down you lose. If the scare cards miss - you probably get bet by all his bluffs and all of his nut hands. He might also bet 1 the combo of J9s, he might have some J9o also.

Edit - I like the idea above of turning your hand into a bluff if a heart hits give the prior action.

So maybe k/c the turn and evaluate the river. If he bets again it is a clear fold.

I like 3betting pre or raising the flop if preflop is as played.

 

[LuisBoaC]

Thank you everyone for your feedback. I now definitely think I should have check/raised the flop. Instead of doing it on the turn after Villain had made his straight.

 

[theANMATOR]

Thank you everyone for your feedback. I now definitely think I should have check/raised the flop. Instead of doing it on the turn after Villain had made his straight.

Nice review hand.
Its a tough one for me - I see villains doing this same exact line with A/Q KK and AA as well. Betting small on the flop POT on the turn and pray jamming the river. So unless you have a read on the player - it's just a tough spot for you.
I've been here often playing trappy with 2 pair only to see that straight hand in my opponents hand - but I'd say no less than 50% of the time the villain shows up with TPTK and/or one over pair as well. The better micro players will down bet the over pair on the river, but they will still call a re-raise - un-believing their big one pair isn't best.

 

[eetenor]

It's the first hand of the tournament and I've never played this opponent before. What range do you have Villain on here at the turn and what action would you take?
I know I like my hand but the board is wet by the turn and Villain seems to like his hand too. But is he doing this with made hands better than mine (straights, sets)? Is he doing it with strong draws and one-pair hands? What can I assume with no prior info on him?
Also, do you think I need to be raising or check/raising the flop to protect my hand there? The board didn't look so scary then.

PokerStars, $3.11 + $0.39 - Hold'em No Limit - 10/20 (3 ante) - 9 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: 1,417 (71 bb)
UTG+1: 1,497 (75 bb)
MP: 1,497 (75 bb)
MP+1: 1,497 (75 bb)
LP: 1,497 (75 bb)
CO: 1,634 (82 bb)
BU: 1,487 (74 bb)
SB: 1,477 (74 bb)
BB (Hero): 1,497 (75 bb)

Pre-Flop: (57) Hero is BB with Q♦ 9♣
3 players fold, MP+1 raises to 40, 3 players fold, SB calls 30, Hero calls 20

Flop: (147) 4♥ 9♥ Q♠ (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP+1 bets 74, SB folds, Hero calls 74

Turn: (295) J♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP+1 bets 295

Thank you for posting


The flop is wet enough to check raise as our V can have AA KK JJhx AKhh AQhh KQhh QJhh JThh KJhh AJhh AThh AQ KQ and QJ off all not folding to X raise as we too could be on a draw here and X raise.
Any time our V c-bet and the top card is not part of the flush draw we want to be thinking raise when we have 2 pair+

Hope this helps