$3.50 NLHE STT: Bubble play, shove or fold?

[BlueNowhere]

We've been on bubble a while and they both had ~400 and I had ~2200 and I open-shoved like 15 (just looked how many) hands or so, it's pretty clear that I'm just open shoving and the guy on the button has only called once (with a strong A) which is why the stacks are what they are now. Do you prefer shove or fold?

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, 3.5 Tournament, 50/100 Blinds 10 Ante (3 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button (t766)
Hero (SB) (t1938)
BB (t296)

Hero's M: 10.77

Preflop: Hero is SB with A

, Q

2 folds

Total pot: t130

Results:

Spoiler

BB didn't show
Outcome: BB won t130

 

[BlueNowhere]

Another spot as well, may as well psot here than create a new thread.

Am I supposed to be shoving here? I limped to stop sb shoving over bb and bb folding which is obv bad for me. If bb shoves I'm folding, right?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 3.5 Tournament, 40/80 Blinds 8 Ante (3 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB (t1550)
Hero (Button) (t1184)
SB (t266)

Hero's M: 8.22

Preflop: Hero is Button with A

, K

Hero calls t80, SB bets t258 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero calls t178

Flop: (t620) 7

, A

, J

(2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t620) 8

(2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t620) 3

(2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t620

Results:

Spoiler

Hero had A

, K

(one pair, Aces).
SB had J

, 5

(one pair, Jacks).
Outcome: Hero won t620

 

[OMGITSOVER9K]

ship and ship!

if you've been open shipping like 15 hands and then min raise.. he'll be like wtf? haha just jam it.

guess if the guy sees limping as weakness then you can limp but shorty's got like 4bb and the BB's folding everything but the nuts this late..

you playing 9man SNG's now Blue?

 

[BlueNowhere]

ship and ship!

if you've been open shipping like 15 hands and then min raise.. he'll be like wtf? haha just jam it.

guess if the guy sees limping as weakness then you can limp but shorty's got like 4bb and the BB's folding everything but the nuts this late..

you playing 9man SNG's now Blue?

My thinking is that since he has been folding alot I'm best keeping the bubble alive by letting the bb off lightly and I can carry on bullying him and get HU as massive chip leader. If he was a retard who didn't really appreciate ICM I'd obv open shove and get HU but seen as though he must have an understanding I felt like losing some equity here to gain future equity was optimal. I do have a tendancy to overthink these situations though and wanted to check my thought process is sound.

Hand 2 I didn't like shipping because one guy is so short and it is an absolute disaster if I go out in 3rd. I limped to prevent BB folding to the SB shove. then if he shoves I can still get away from it whilst protecting my equity by not letting shortstack build his stack and the big stack can then pile a shit load of pressure on me and given my position I'm pretty much helpless to his attacks.

Playing 6-max hypers now, giving playing only HU a rest for abit and completely quit tournaments.

 

[WiZZiM]

If he really is folding a lot, then he might fold here on hand #1. Our hand is too strong to fold, however i would certainly think about folding a huge chunk of my range because of the things mentioned. However it really comes down to opponant dynamics.

Hand #2 probably prefer just min-raising here, unless the BB is known to you and might/will 3bet shove wide. If he does 3bet shove wide then i think limping is the play, shoving wouldn't be terrible, but theres a lot better, less risky plays to pick up the blinds + by limping we also allow the SB to think he may have FE or at least let him put his chips in... worst case, we see a 3 way flop in position with AK doesn't sound like a hard way to play it.

 

[baudib1]

Hand 1 I think is a superstandard ship, you are overthinking it a bit.

I like how you played Hand 2.

 

[BlueNowhere]

Maybe hand 1 was overthought, although i think it's certainly logical that I can fold a large chunk of my range here that is +cev to shove.

 

[baudib1]

double post

 

[baudib1]

Maybe hand 1 was overthought, although i think it's certainly logical that I can fold a large chunk of my range here that is +cev to shove.

I'm not an ICM expert but I don't think your edge here is big enough to fold a hugely +EV spot. If blinds were 25/50 and stacks were 2500/450/50 I'm all for it. For sure I think we can fold a lot of marginally +EV hands here but AQs seems way too strong.

For one, I think BB is going to fold wayyyyy too often to a shove, just as importantly, I think he's going to call with hands we have destroyed like Ax/QJ and fold a ton of hands that are drawing live and I think No. 2 stack is going to get sick of it and just spite call instead of letting you roll over on him forever. And if No. 2 is going to fold forever, doubling up shorty here isn't a total disaster.