$3.50 NLHE STT: A7 Button bubble shove

[luciusyg]

Hi Guys,

SNGWiz says that I should have folded my hand instead of shoving. Do you guys know why?

SB is VPIP 13, CPFR 2, Agg 67, FS 7, 175 hands
BB is VPIP 20, CPFR 19, Agg 0, FS 17, 41 Hands

Cheers,



poker stars $3.16+$0.34 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t200/t400 Blinds + t25 - 5 players - http://www.handconverter.com/hands/1313813
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: t4316 M = 5.95
UTG: t14767 M = 20.37
CO: t4020 M = 5.54
Hero (BTN): t1142 M = 1.58
SB: t2755 M = 3.80

Pre Flop: (t725) Hero is BTN with Ah 7d
UTG calls t400, 1 fold, Hero raises to t1117 all in, 1 fold, BB calls t717, 1 fold

Flop: (t2959) 4h Kh 8s (2 players - 1 is all in)

Turn: (t2959) 8d (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: (t2959) 3s (2 players - 1 is all in)

 

[losched16]

I think it makes it a fold because the big stack is limping and if we assume he is limping with 25% of his range (not 100%) and also calling your all in with this same range (therefore no fold equity), then SNG Wiz calculates that A7 does not fair well against that range in an all in situation. Also, if this big stack does not limp and we shove and give the BB a 100% calling range, this is a profitable shove because a 100% calling range includes a lot of hands that A7 dominates and winning against the big stack does not increase our equity as much as winning against the medium stack. So since we know that an opponent is already in the hand with cards in the top 25% of his range, this makes it a fold according to SNG Wiz.

However, I do not have a problem shoving A7 here. The next hand the big stack will be in the BB and the hand after that we are UTG having to shove ATC

Also, I have noticed that you have made several posts but label them as STT. STT's are 9 mans. From the stack sizes in these hands, these are 18 man games. Just make sure you title them 18 mans so that we can get exact ICM calculations.

 

[luciusyg]

whoops sorry on the STT bit

 

[WiZZiM]

Yeh we can't fold here UTG limp just adds more juicy dead money to the equation.