$3.50 NLHE MTT: Unknown villain, response to river pot bet when highest card pairs?

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doomasiggy

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PokerStars - $3.19+$0.31|10/20 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP+1: 1,420
CO: 1,390
BTN: 1,400
SB: 1,400
Hero (BB): 1,500
UTG: 1,500
UTG+1: 1,500
UTG+2: 1,950
MP: 1,440

SB posts SB 10, Hero posts BB 20

Pre Flop: (pot: 30) Hero has 9 9

fold, fold, UTG+2 raises to 40, fold, MP+1 calls 40, fold, fold, SB calls 30, Hero calls 20

Flop: (160, 4 players) 8 ♠ 3 6
SB checks, Hero bets 80, UTG+2 calls 80, fold, fold

Turn: (320, 2 players) 4
Hero bets 180, UTG+2 calls 180

River: (680, 2 players) 8
Hero checks, UTG+2 bets 600
 
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BigThingWithHolesInIt

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This seems an easy fold to me. He raised pre, wasn't afraid of you donking into him, and river seems a value bet to me. I struggle to think of hands he can have that you beat outside of 77 and maybe 55. If he has overcards here he took a really strange line imo.
 
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RealChaser74

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What Kind of history do you have with villian here? it looks to be real early in the tourney and he might be feeling out who will fold to a pot bet on the river. If he has a hand a call here would cripple you but on the reverse side you have 2 pair and pots odds of putting in 600 to win 1200 can put you at a nice chip lead. The big unknow here is the villian and his playing style. Here is an article that explains this better
http://burbspoker.blogspot.com/2013/01/the-poker-uncertainty-theorem.html

Mods feel free to delete link if it is not allowed
 
Lucothefish

Lucothefish

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The only reason this is a fold is because it's so early in the tournament. You're ahead here more often than you think.
 
MasterOfDisaster

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You're ahead here more often than you think.

I agree with this and to come back at your question I don't see an 8 too often in his PF openingsrange, also you donklead the flop and I would expect him to raise (flop or turn) if he has any pair higher as yours and not take a calling line with it and than raise the river big when the board pairs.

I think it is a call.
 
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RamdeeBen

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I think we can rule out an 8 from his range.

I think donking is fine on this flop; if he has over pairs here I think people nearly go spazz crazy on these boards and will deffo be raising you. I think checking behind the river is a mistake though based on him having an 8 in his range is highly unlikely; you just create a spot where he can bluff you off.


I much pefere bet/folding this river as opposed to c/f.

The only hand here that makes sense is TT for beating us, I think he checks behind other middle pairs that we beat and fires all his broadways as a bluff.

As played; I'd probs call.
 
MasterOfDisaster

MasterOfDisaster

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Did I wrote raise the river I ment bet (lol)
 
1luckysob

1luckysob

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8 is a good scare card to bluff here im betting he missed his nut flush draw and with no info on villain i cant see folding here but i would not have checked the river. If you bet the river and he re-raises i think you have a more clear idea that you are beat and can justify folding
 
z28_RoadRage

z28_RoadRage

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His line looks like he had small pkts and hit his set... he called your raises to the river and when you checked he wanted value. Or he had absolutely nothing and floated you to the river.

I can't see him letting you catch up if he had higher pkts than the board showed. Either way I would have called and moved on if he had the set or higher pair.
 
MasterOfDisaster

MasterOfDisaster

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His line looks like he had small pkts and hit his set... he called your raises to the river and when you checked he wanted value. Or he had absolutely nothing and floated you to the river.

I can't see him letting you catch up if he had higher pkts than the board showed. Either way I would have called and moved on if he had the set or higher pair.

I almost never expect him to show a flopped set.
 
Rappyness

Rappyness

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I think you should've called and I don't believe he had 8s. I believe he had a flush draw and missed it! You should've called his bluff but then again it is easier said than done! Hard to read people like that that you have no history what so ever!
 
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