$3.50 NLHE MTT Turbo: Ako 5-handed, ICM fold?

[BvBrMTW]

Hey guys,
I ran the hand in SnG wizard And played around with the ranges a bit, and I can't figure out whether the fold is good or not,

Villain is playing 33/13 over 70 hands, now if we take this literally than I should call here, on the other hand, if he shoves 12% it's a fold,
I can't say whether he'd push a hand like A5s or not,
So in these situations, with the SB being really short,
When in doubt should I just fold?

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, 3.5 Tournament, 800/1,600 Blinds 75 Ante (5 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

Button (t29,416)
SB (t3,752)
BB (t13,452)
UTG (t8,296)
Hero (MP) (t12,584)

Hero's M: 4.53

Preflop: Hero is MP with K

, A

UTG bets t8,221 (All-In), Hero folds.

 

[DrSparky]

Hi, this may be the ramblings of an amateur but I think you can give him at least a 13% range here...

Reason I say this is because it's his last hand before the blinds hit, with this play he stands to win SB+BB+Ante's, next hand he'd stand to win $1,600 less...

I'm not very familiar with ICM yet, but looking at this through my eye's I'd be shoving this - With the aim of getting heads up. I appreciate the SB is very short and may call...

 

[BvBrMTW]

I'd agree with you if he was a regular, the points is that he's playing 33/13, I don't know if a random fish would consider he has to shove wider because the blinds are going through him.

 

[DrSparky]

Ah, I hadn't clocked that... I'm going to have to give way to better players here...

At what point in the tournament were you (I'm afraid I'm not familiar with what 800/1600 blinds represents in terms of time in)... reason I ask is are we past the "really big not thinking fish" stage?

 

[BvBrMTW]

it's the final 5, but these games are just full of fish, even the at ft's =p

But yea, I think he at least thinks that he knows what he's doing, but I've seen him limping and min-raising with under 10bb's so yea, pretty big fish.

 

[DrSparky]

Wow, I didn't realize fish could get that far in MTTs... I have to remember that!

I'm going to let someone with more experience take over now, but through my beginner eye's I'm still shoving this...

Something that's just crossed my mind... have you only been playing with this person on the final table? - Are some of the hands (And hence the values obtained for VPIP and PFR) based from much earlier action? Or can we give them a wider range because the values you have are an average over the 70 hands so we can say he's PFR is at least 13 and is more than likely higher? (I don't know whether SnG wizard takes this into account?)

Thanks...

 

[Poker Orifice]

You should probably specify that this is a 45man SNG, along with payout structure (although in this hand it doesn't matter because I am NEVER folding in this spot EVER).

 

[Poker Orifice]

Just took another look at title of thread.. '$3 mtt'. Really?
It's not a 45man?

 

[DrSparky]

You should probably specify that this is a 45man SNG, along with payout structure (although in this hand it doesn't matter because I am NEVER folding in this spot EVER).

Can I play the beginner card and ask whats the main reason is you're never folding here? Thanks...

 

[10058765]

Can I play the beginner card and ask whats the main reason is you're never folding here? Thanks...

Because Poker Orifice plays to win.
With AK this is a perfect spot to almost double up, meanwhile eliminating a player, if you have the better of it and getting 2nd in chips.
Even if you lose the hand you're not out yet.
AK, imo, is just to good a hand to let this go.

 

[DrSparky]

Thanks for the answer