$3.50 NLHE MTT Turbo: 99 vs Big Stack Shove ITM in 45man

[ben_rhyno]

pokerstars Game #62695000212: Tournament #399200971, $3.19+$0.31 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XIII (800/1600) - 2011/05/29 14:07:20 WET [2011/05/29 9:07:20 ET]
Table '399200971 2' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 2: ben-rhyno (18624 in chips)
Seat 6: arisrunner (20078 in chips)
Seat 7: hüssi (21778 in chips)
Seat 9: aleks8885 (7020 in chips)
ben-rhyno: posts the ante 75
arisrunner: posts the ante 75
hüssi: posts the ante 75
aleks8885: posts the ante 75
aleks8885: posts small blind 800
ben-rhyno: posts big blind 1600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ben-rhyno [9d] [9s]
arisrunner: raises 18403 to 20003 and is all-in
hüssi: folds
aleks8885: folds
ben-rhyno: ??????
Payouts:
1st: $44.53
2nd: $30.86
3rd: $23.68
4th: $12.91

So, is this a fold due to ICM? Against a 25% raising range: (Assume 25% here aswell as he seems to be positionally unaware): we have 56%
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
3,154,063,968 games 3.135 secs 1,006,081,010 games/sec
Board:
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.886% 56.46% 00.42% 1780831380 13389456.00 { 99 }
Hand 1: 43.114% 42.69% 00.42% 1346453676 13389456.00 { 66+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, A7o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }


According to ICM:

There are 67,500 chips in play and $111.98, giving each chip a value of 16.5c.
My stack is worth: $30.72

A call and loss gives 0 chips and -$30.72.
This is where I get lost in my decision making. A call and win would give me ~$63 worth of chips with $44 as max prize. What's the next step in the calculations? How do i find out if it's a profitable call/fold?

 

[jbbb]

A call and loss gives 0 chips and -$30.72.

Aren't you ITM so a call and loss gives 0 chips and $12.91?

Why do you think he's raising 25%? Most fish won't shove T8s or Q8s for 14BB.

But i'm calling his range includes small aces and underpairs and 99 4handed is a massive hand.

 

[ben_rhyno]

Oh yeh forgot about being ITM. 25% is his PFR. I think we need to take the short stack into consideration

 

[ben_rhyno]

Responses from someone good at ICM please

 

[WiZZiM]

You can't have more than $44. The calculations are based on the fact we can't get less than 4th place payout, but we also cannot get more than the first place payout. So all ICM calculations are based off the fact that the maximum we can win in a 45man is 30% (unless i'm mistaken, i think it's 30% for a stars payout).

You can do these calculations of course, but it's just far easier to input this into an ICM calculator ( you will need to search for a 45man ICM calculator, google is you're friend).

You can also use free programs like "ICM Explorer" which will give you accurate figures of how much equity you need to be able to call off.

 

[Logan2]

You already use the trail from SNG Wizzard, Ben?.

Not remember if was 15days free, but if not used yet should try it, will help a lot in this and after the trial can decide if buy it.

 

[WiZZiM]

I used to think it helped a lot too, and it can to a point, but sometimes there are more profitable plays than just shoving or folding.

Also i can pretty much guarantee 99% of SNG players have no idea how to use it properly and are probably hurting their game more than anything.