This is a discussion on $3.5 NLHE STT Turbo: Call or fold? within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Hand Analysis section; Hero 1 numismat
PokerStars, $3.30 + $0.20 - Hold'em No Limit - 25/50 - 8 players
igor 196 96 (UTG): 1,017 (20 bb)
VitorArj (UTG+1): 1,440 (29 bb)
here is why would fold. he could have called with AK AQ he may have at least 1 diamond but I don't think he raises the flop if he has 2. Now say you call he has taken away one of your outs the Jd because that puts 4 on the board. He also could have K10 or KJ now you have to worry about a str draw. I would have checked the flop that makes him think you may have the flush if he doesnt. Then if he bets the 650 you can easily fold only having 150 invested.
I can discuss politics, religion and play poker without getting emotional.
A 3BB open is very large with these stack sizes. I normally use 2,5BB, and in a game like this without antes, you can go even smaller than that.
There is some merit to betting to deny equity to weak draws like 44 with 4 of diamonds, that might fold to a bet. But for me personally I typically check back in a situation like this. Hoping to see a safe turn card and trying to get to showdown without bloating the pot. As played he pressed the "pot" button, and we cant just call this and then fold later, or at least thats not a good strategy. So its either jam or fold, and I can see merits to both decisions.
We are a little deep to stack off just top pair on a monotone board, where we dont have a flushdraw. But on the other side this pot sized raise does look rather wild, and my gut feeling is, that it will tend to be a weak hand wanting us to fold more often than a strong one. Especially since your bet was quite small, which he might enterpret as weekness. But there are also some strong hands, that might do this, because they panic about getting drawn out on. Like 22, AQ, A2s, small flushes.
So its close, and as long as you either jammed or folded, I think, thats completely fine. Obviously folding is the lower variance route, but on the other side there are advantages to getting a early dubble up in these 50/fifty SnGs, because it allow you to apply pressure and accumulate even more chips, when the bubble gets closer.
Just for fun I looked your opponent up on Sharkscope. He has not opted in, so the information is limited, but his last 8 games played are all these 3,5$ 50/fifty SnGs. However from the timing its obvious, that he only play one at a time, which mean, he is definitely some kind of recreational player. Which makes sense, since regulars rarely bet "pot" on the flop, while recreational players love to do it, especially when they are either bluffing or scared and want you to fold.
Biggest mistake!!!! It never can be a call.... never ever, fold or allin!
If it is vs. a reg player, always push allin, no question, if a tight rec player, then you can think a bit about it, but it is 99% allin for me. The guys above who want to fold it, don't get turbo sng - love them, even on turbo tourneys anyway. So no offence... (this is part of the reason why you need a bit higher bankroll for turbos, hypers, there is no time to play very tight, even for ITM often you need flips.) It is a very basic math situation, this call makes you +++ in mid, long run on turbo sngs... even if in this particular case, you are behind him or just go for a flip, still more often will be front of him, and win this hand than lose it. and if you win it 50 few times from 100 then it is already okay, as you can dominate the table, in turbo thats also very important + they won't push allins vs. you, can bluff, make them fold easier, steal blinds in few level deeper phase or ITM bubble etc., so plenty positive side + advantage involved.
There is no "early" in turbo sng, especially not on 3-4 blind level, as i see the av. stack around 30BB, you won't have time, you just see get several dozens hands in a turbo sng... it is not a deepstack slow tourney... know what you play, and change your own rules for that...
you are more likely front of him KJ, K10, J10 diamond and AQ, AK, 22, QQ, AA what beats you, that not much, 8 hands. Based on he just called preflop AA,QQ,AQ,Ak out of option, top pair with 2nd kicker not bad, dont think much about it just call it. 4 possiple hands what are front of you.
Kx with K diamond is likely, maybe a KQo, basically KQo and 10Qo with K or 10 diamond will be a flip, he knows it (if he is a reg), probably you don't - otherwise i guess you wouldnt post it -, so he push it for fold equity. From better, reg players it is common, especially regs playing for rake, leaderboard points on sngs. And how i see, it is a sit and go, so there you can count on these kind of flips, never fold them, if you think it is that. That makes you lose in long run...
Anyway, SNGs as a tourney player, you must change several things in your game, especially in turbos, in turbos the flips like this are pretty common.
Here is the possibilities for flips, and even 55-45% for you - what he will also push, as the fold equity compares that 10% difference, even here in the forum, plenty people would fold this, that's a huge +++ for the opponent.... generally, they fold the same hand - AJo - more than 1 times out of 10, so your opponent -10% covered by that easily...
I understand, see the rakes are much smaller, but exactly because of these situations, and their long term effects on turbo, you must count with wilder variance, higher bankroll, but you can't fold hands like this with flop like this vs. regs, maybe some hobby players, whose don't know they play turbo, and have no clue at all about probability, variance, then you can suppose the several stronger hands...
Just my opinion....
Also just my opinion, get some basic variance, probability knowledge about given hands, popular ones, even on flops. Sngs, multi sngs are slightly different from tourneys, especially the turbos. regs play them everywhere for rake, they know all this basic stuff, even much more sng specific stuff, you can be okay without that on very micros, but i even doubt that, all rooms where i play have at least 20-30 good regs even on micros, you can't be lose more than 1-2% vs. them otherwise you wont make profit from sngs, rakebacks, lbs.
Generally, if you play turbos regularly, at the beginning you play them for reaching breakeven and earn from rake. Just doing it, it works, but no real profit from playing sngs, only from leaderboard and rakeback - what still pretty much okay, if you multitable and play 100-200/day. (also, just saying some rooms have 4-6% fee on turbo, hyper sngs, PS doesnt look cheaper, and i think the rakeback still the worst there...)
turbo, hyper sng multitabling like baby chess, you know the probabilities, % for given - at least common - situations, and you don't think much. Like in chess, they just memorize million previously played games, situation, what leads 10-20 steps further to win it... similar in this case, just enough for it a dumber brain, memory for mid, long term +
So you folded, and I think, thats completely fine. As others have said, this is still early in the tournament, and we can find better spots later on. The issue here is, that while there are not that many hands, that beat us, those that do have us completely crushed. Even if he "only" has AQ, we need to hit a perfect runner-runner to beat him. Any hand with a diamond has decent equity against us, so to make money by jamming, we need him to have a lot of hands with no diamond, that we beat, like AT, A9, A8 etc, and then ideally also call our jam with those hands. And unless he is a total maniac, these assumptions are very optimistic.