$3.5 NLHE STT Bounty: Easy fold? Flip at best? Easy call?

twoturntablez

twoturntablez

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poker stars No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t50.00/t100.00 Blinds - 7 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

SB: t2990.00 29.90 BBs - VPIP: 17, PFR: 7, 3B: 7, AF: 0.2, hands: 46
BB: t2190.00 21.90 BBs - VPIP: 35, PFR: 2, 3B: 0, AF: 1.9, Hands: 46
UTG: t715.00 7.15 BBs - VPIP: 37, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 5.0, Hands: 46
UTG+1: t2465.00 24.65 BBs - VPIP: 17, PFR: 4, 3B: 0, AF: Infinity, Hands: 46
MP: t1550.00 15.50 BBs - VPIP: 17, PFR: 9, 3B: 0, AF: Infinity, Hands: 46
Hero (CO): t2530.00 25.30 BBs - VPIP: 22, PFR: 8, 3B: 3, AF: 2.2, Hands: 24745
BTN: t1060.00 10.60 BBs - VPIP: 13, PFR: 7, 3B: 0, AF: 2.0, Hands: 46

Pre Flop: (t150) Hero is CO with J :spade: J :heart:
2 folds, MP raises to t1500, 4 folds

Final Pot: t250
MP wins t250.00

Since this hand this villain has made several all ins when I am SB and BB. Was tempted here but thought better of it.
 
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BigThingWithHolesInIt

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Unless I'm missing something, I'm iso-shoving here all day and it's not close... there's even a bounty
 
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WiZZiM

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this guy is kinda tight, but in these spots we can usually rule out stuff like KK and AA, so we're only worried that he might be doing this with QQ. He will also likely do it with stuff he wants to play but doesn't feel comfortable raising. So things like 88-QQ and also things like AJ AQ AK KQs where he feels he wants to play, but doesn't know anything but the push/fold game. Adding to this, his stats suggest he is tight, which usually only indicates that he may have a small idea of what he's doing. So these stats are usually skewed in the higher blind levels as we know "good" players will tend to open up a lot more towards the later stages of the game.

These are all just assumptions from what i've seen from players like this in the past (and also because i used to play like this villian, I used to believe that the push/fold game was the be all end all of SNG).

So with this info, i'm likely calling knowing that i'm probably going to be flipping here against over half his range, and completely crushing the rest. Other considerations here are that we take a bounty if we knock him out, making it slightly better for us, and the fact we're left with a workable stack if we lose. Yeah, i call.
 
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Id say call, usually a flip at worse and you have him covered enough to where a double up would put you back where you need to be.
 
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WiZZiM

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This might be a bit closer considering it's a regular speed. Only just noticed that.
 
twoturntablez

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The reason I didnt call was because I didnt want to flip at this point in time against KQ AQ AK anyway. I wasnt giving him credit for QQ KK AA and thought most likely he does this with a good hand he cant afford to raise fold.

Ive got an ok stack so I thought I'll just let this one go. Maybe it was wrong to think like that. I just ran it through pokerstove and if we give him his 9% range then Im looking really good because it includes AJ KJ and a couple more pairs I beat. In my decision making I didnt think there was much chance he had AA or KK or that he Jams this whole 9%.

Besides the point I should probably have taken this opportunity as later he pushed on my BB when I had AQ. I went for it and he had AK. Didnt make a recovery from that.

Thanks Wizzim for putting a few words into your reply and backing it up with a thought process.
 
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WiZZiM

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yeah i think my reasoning is slightly flawed as i'm thinking from a turbo point of view, meaning we should take as many edges as possible. Since this is a regular speed, theres ample time and opportunity to use our stack without big all in confrontations.

Also, i'm unsure of what regular speed "regulars" would be shoving here. Turbo guys would be shoving a ton of lower pairs here, even like pocket 5's some would shove, so that makes calling a lot better for us, but a regular speed player may be doing this with a much tighter range, i'm really not sure.

All in all, folding can't be a huge mistake here, especially if you have skills you can use in smaller pots.
 
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BigThingWithHolesInIt

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Ok I don't play at PS so maybe I'm way off... I currently play at PKR where people generally play exceptionally bad, but I used to play at Full Tilt and there most players were very tight in the early blind levels, then would open up and start shovebotting when the blinds are getting notable and they don't have a great stack. In a spot like this, they would indeed try to induce a shove (by limping or minraising) with hands they really want to play - AA, KK certainly, but I've frequently seen it with AK and QQ as well.
Either way the stats aren't very reliable and just plugging top 9% into PokerStove is tricky. The shovebot strategy is focused more on how well a hand holds up against hands that can call a shove, so less broadways and more pairs, suited connectors and suited aces.
I tried a range of QQ-55, AQo+, KQo, 87s up to AKs. This makes us a 65,9% favorite. Removing 55, 66, 87s, 98s, T9s, A8s-ATs gives 61,4%.
I think we should assume we are a 60% favorite at the least. Then considering winning gives us a bounty and the chiplead, and that we still have a playable stack if we lose, I don't see how we can think of passing this up.

I also don't understand why we would just call, not shove here?
 
twoturntablez

twoturntablez

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Ok I don't play at PS so maybe I'm way off... I currently play at PKR

Yeah Ive been playing at PKR, omg people play so bad, FR cash 4nl open with 16c or 20c and get 5 callers duh. I love hate this site.

Im not sure this guy is a 78s shove here. Ive been thinking about this hand a lot (how sad) and yeah I prolly should have shoved. Title was misleading, I was either shove or fold here. If another player comes along then we're both likely smashed.

Are you going to shove the range described or are you assigning that to his stats?

Dont know why, just a feeling he isnt doing this with 99, 10 10 maybe, After discussion and all things considered, yes I probably push here next time against this kind of opponent. Chips left if I lose, nice stack if I win. I think Ive still got to be happy if he flips over KQ AQ AK. AQ AK both hands he's got to play and doesnt have much option after any flop, with 1500 chips Im likely shoving AQ AK here and dont raise to 300 or 350 to see a flop Im 50% not going to like.
 
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