This is a discussion on $3.30 NLHE MTT Rebuy: Jam this turn is the right move? within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Hand Analysis section; Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 29/22/1
Late registration period has ended few min before this hand. Villain won few big hands and started playing a bit looser. He
$3.30 NLHE MTT Rebuy: Jam this turn is the right move?
Join Date: Sep 2020
$3.30 NLHE MTT Rebuy: Jam this turn is the right move?
Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 29/22/1
Late registration period has ended few min before this hand. Villain won few big hands and started playing a bit looser. He has huge chip lead at our table and I believe he was in top5 in whole tourney and he started to get envolved in much more hands then before.
pf: everybody folds to me in HJ with KdTd and I raise 2BB,
villain from CO 3Bets to 4.94BB, it folds back to me and I call.
flop: Jh 2d 4d
I check, villain bets 6BB (1/2pot) and I call
I check, villain bets little bit less then 12BB (1/2pot) and I shove with 32BB and got called very quickly with 99 no d.
river is 2c and I got busted
From the previous hands I found out that when has the nuts or top pair he always bets arround 2/3pot that's why I felt very certain that he does not have J and QQ+
-Should I have moved all-in on the flop, or maybe I should have folded on Turn or I made the right decision?
-With my Turn shove am I representing any J holdings or it is obvious that I am on the flush draw or straight draw like 9T or some open-ended or gutshot flush draws?
Welcome to Cardschat as I see this is your first post. I do not like jamming the turn in this spot because I do not think you are deep enough to get folds. Jamming 32BB when 12BB have already been bet against a big stack will not yield many folds. Plus I am not usually a fan of semi-bluffing with only one card to come. On the turn I would just fold and let it be.
I am not saying I would do it but if you are going to jam on this hand it should be on the flop where you still have 35% chance to hit and will have some fold equity. I dont mind calling the flop as it is important to get to see the turn in these spots and we are paying against the odds to see it but not crazy against the odds to see it. Plus we might float with a lot of stuff to where even if the diamond comes on the turn we can still get another street of value.
I am fine with the pre flop play, maybe the raise is debatable as you are raising into someone who you say is now active with a big stack but I still like it. The call pre flop at that price is a must (mistake by your opponent with that sizing). The flop as I wrote I would call but can see jamming there but it is the higher variance play. Calling is giving us enough odds counting implied odds to be fine. The turn, I am just giving up unless the bet was smaller than what villain made it or we get some straight draw out of it too but I still dont think I would ever call in that spot unless I am making a value call. Anything not made I am either jamming or folding and much prefer to fold.
With a 40+BB stack I typically open to 2,5BB. If 3 of the 4 players behind were all short, I can be onboard with the min-raise though. When he 3-bet this small, I would also call. Against a more normal size, I fold.
I prefer check-call. If you check-raise to a normal size, you commit yourself to calling it off, if he jam, and if you check-jam, its a massive overbet, and it pretty much look like, what it is. A drawing hand that want him to fold. There is typically less fold equity in a 3-bet pot and even less against a massive chip leader. So this is one of the few times, where playing a draw passively is the best option.
I think, check-jamming is pretty bad. He is getting better than 3:1, and for the reasons already discussed you have very little fold equity. You are also never ahead when called. Instead its a close decision between check-folding and check-calling. I would not hate a fold, but you do have an overcard, which is sometimes live (this time you even had two overcards), and you are getting 3:1 with some stack left behind. So I think, a call can also be justified, and then lead the river, if you make a flush.
Him stacking off with 99 pretty much confirm, there was very little fold equity. If I am looking down at a hand like 99, I am more likely to 3-bet it against a min-raise, because I dont want to let the blinds enter the pot for almost free. Whereas if its a larger raise, I am more contend to sometimes just call. Dont know if this Villain was thinking the same way, but I do think, you could perhaps have kept the pot smaller by opening a bit larger and avoid his 3-bet. This is just something to a least consider.
By either check-folding the turn or check-calling and then check-folding the river, you could also have survived with at least 20BB. Check-jamming the turn was pretty much ICM-suicide. Its also a little difficult for me to understand, why you min-raise preflop and then have no problem getting it all in on the turn with just a draw. It sort of goes against, what you were trying to do by min-raising, which is to keep the pot small.
I think you have to define your line on flop. If you want to jam you should do it on flop. If you call flop bet you show you are drawing. When you check/push turn you changed your line and it looks more like bluff.
Hello, I prefer fold kts from the hj position. As played - on the table is chip leader who seems to be very active. I agree with some guys that pre flop raise can be a little bigger, 3x looks good, because of the table chipleader on your site. I don't like playing call pre flop hands like kts when somebody 3bets me, even if I know that somebody looks like loose player, with this hands we can have some problem to play after the flop big pots. For me better fold pre flop and wait for better hands and better situations to play. I agree with some guys and I also don't like risk all my chips for about 30bb to play semibluff in this situation. If we call the turn and see the river card and even we won't hit good cards, we can fold on the river and we can have good stack to play. I think we will have some better opportunities to win a chips. So on the turn I prefer more call this bet and see the river card than fold or jam. Jam on the turn is a very risky move on this stack. GL