$3.30 NLHE MTT Rebuy: Call or Fold

[ciriciric]

We are in the money. Winning this hand would put me 3-5th and folding would put me in push or fold position with 15BB.

Hero: 27BB
Villain: 25BB
pf: folds to villain, he opens 2BB from BTN, and Hero decides to call from BB with KQo

f: (5.5BBpot) 6d 6h 2h
Hero checks, villain bets 1/4pot and Hero calls

t: (8.25BBpot) Kh
Hero checks, villain bets 2/3pot and hero calls again

r: (19BBpot) 3s
Hero checks again, the villain goes all-in with 16BB



I go deep in a tank and decide to fold my hand. I have almost none information about the villain except that from 45 hands he only had raised 2 times pf without any calls, and from the hands that he played as a pf caller, he bet the flop 0/2 and turn 2/2. I believe he has very few A6 hands in his range, maybe some overpairs or 2high cards, possibly with a flush draw. Betting F seems standard and later when he bets the Kh again he probably hits flush or a K or it is a Ah bluff or some other bluffs. After he jams the river, I think it is either flush or a bluff. I don't think that even AK or AA would jam here? At first I thought I made good decision folding. More and more I think about it, I feel like I should have called there, as with Ah this is pretty good bluff as well as with some JhJ,ThT.

What do you think is the best decision here? Also, is it maybe worth it, that even though you feel like you will more often lose these spots, that if once you catch the bluff, you will have a really good position to try to make it to the final table and win? After this fold, I squeezed to a few more places, but not much difference in the payout.

 

[ammje]

Hello mate, maybe you should use the cardschat player to show your hand, so it's easier, analyze.

You played this hand passively, maybe it was better to play aggressively, because you are playing without position,
Maybe it was better to 3bet.

On the turn, you should stop for a moment, and analyze, the size of the pot, what spr do you have?, And you have to think, if you call on the turn, on the river you would have spr of 1, and you would have to call with any card that comes out on the river.
Maybe it is better to check-raise the turn.

 

[fundiver199]

I think, it depends on, which reads you had on Villain. From a theoretical standpoint KQo is probably so high up in your range, that you can be exploited, if you dont take it to showdown. This is especially true, if you would regularly take an aggressive route with your very strong hands like trips and flushes.

That being said I also think, a lot of micro stakes regulars would just give up, after you called their turn bet. So there is some argument, that big river bets in general tend to be for value in the micros, and especially when they are for Villains tournament live. A lot of (bad) regs simply dont have the gusto to actually pull the trigger on the river and fire the last big barrel.

I also think, he could be going somewhat thinner for value, that you imagine here. Yeah there are 3 hearts on the board, and its paired with a 6, but this does not mean, someone MUST have a flush or trips. So I can certainly see someone trying to get max value with their AA or AK. Or maybe even with the same hand as yours.

Overall I dont hate your fold, and for the record I also think, you played preflop, flop and turn just fine. However if you move up and play 8-12$ tournaments or higher, then I would make the hero call against an aggressive regular in this spot. As a general tendency the regs in the micros tend to be tight and straight forward, while those at slightly higher limits are more on the loose and aggressive side.

 

[jaworek1405]

Hello, I think that better is defend bb with KQo than 3bet pre flop, because we are OOP and on the flop we can have some problems with this hand if we will 3bet pre flop. As played - IMO without some informations I would fold kqo on the flop, because K high isn't good hand to call. Sometimes players on micro limit play like your opponent, first bet is very small and the next bet is a little bigger. It's hard to say what does it mean. I think that in this situation opponent can play this small bet with flush draw, because his range from the button is wide, some suited connector cards are possible and he can do it for value. Decision on the river - I think that on the river we should fold our top pair, because of flush on the board, in long run time I think we will lost chips if we will call bet on the river. GL

 

[greatgame230]

I disagree with all the previous comments but take into account that they are all much better players than me and most likely they are right, I go straight to the question of whether I would have done the call on the river, The flop is not a good flop for someone who raised pre-flop, I do not rule out a medium pair +88 but A6 is not accompanied by the possibilities, now the turn brings us an excellent card and I think it removes my doubt about whether the he had a flush draw on the flop his bet is too big until it seems that he wants you to fold there for the rest the river does not serve anyone, so my conclusion is he has 3 possible hands to win AK, AA or 22 since I have discarded the rest IMO to the previous action, I am honest, I would have called without thinking much, I think the possibility of winning that hand was enormous, it is just my opinion does not mean that it is the right thing to do, just as I read the hand and it what would I have done

 

[fundiver199]

Sometimes players on micro limit play like your opponent, first bet is very small and the next bet is a little bigger. It's hard to say what does it mean.

Its actually the strategy, which solvers will generally recommend and especially on a paired board. The small flop bet is sometimes called "down betting", and the theory behind it is, that by betting so small, Villain is "allowed" to bet most of his range, and Hero has to defend with some fairly weak hands including a hand like KQo.

On the turn and river Villain is no longer supposed to bet his entire range, and since Hero still has a lot of junk, he can force Hero to fold a lot by putting down the hammer, and/or call down with a hand like top pair. So the sizing could be a recreational player betting small with his small hands and then betting big, when he improved. But it could also be someone, who is good enough to understand, that these are the sizings, he is supposed to use even with his bluffs.

 

[Nr98]

Preflop call is standard and imo optimal for micros. You're going to stack any Kx postflop on these stacks.

Flop call is standard, just a 25% pot bet. We're likely still good on showdown value and if not we definitely have the equity to call.

From the turn on I'd happily stack off here. Yes we're beat by some flushes, 6x and the occasional 45 and 22. However likewise I think we would stack KJ/KTx and just as many one heart bluffs here.

Additionally, the portion of micro stakes players who bets 1/4 pot on 6x on the flop is very low imo, making this an even more profitable call I reckon.

 

[jaworek1405]

Its actually the strategy, which solvers will generally recommend and especially on a paired board.

Yes Fundiver, I think you know what you say, but I think that it is tournament for 3,3$, it is still micro limit tournament and I don't think so that somebody works in solver. I think that even very good players from micro limit and tournament like this, they don't work in solver program.

 

[fundiver199]

I have almost none information about the villain except that from 45 hands he only had raised 2 times pf without any calls, and from the hands that he played as a pf caller, he bet the flop 0/2 and turn 2/2.

Ok so thats a PFR of around 5% before this hand. That is obviously very low, but to better judge, what this means, we also need to know his VPIP. A 48/5 over 45 hands is surely a fish, and when he comes in for a raise, he probably has something pretty good. Often passivity preflop carries over to postflop, so I would also tend to give a player with such stats more credit, when he bomb the turn and river. The only caveat is, maybe he thinks, his KJ is the nuts and play it this way, or maybe he is on tilt from previous hands.

However if the numbers are something like 9/5, then 45 hands is still not enough to know, if he is a nit, or maybe he was just card dead over this small sample. But even so a very low PFR will make me more likely to fold here. The players, I am never folding to in this spot, are LAGs or maniacs. Like a 23/19 or a 48/34. These players will have a very wide range raising on BTN, and they will also understand, that Kh is an ideal scare card for them to try and represent with a big turn bet and a river jam.

 

[Cinhos_2000]

I think it's 50-50, both plays are fine. If you had more information on the villain it'd be an easier decision. Don't think that much about it, but try to take a note fo r future encounters w this guy.

 

[Cinhos_2000]

Preflop call is standard and imo optimal for micros. You're going to stack any Kx postflop on these stacks.

Flop call is standard, just a 25% pot bet. We're likely still good on showdown value and if not we definitely have the equity to call.

From the turn on I'd happily stack off here. Yes we're beat by some flushes, 6x and the occasional 45 and 22. However likewise I think we would stack KJ/KTx and just as many one heart bluffs here.

Additionally, the portion of micro stakes players who bets 1/4 pot on 6x on the flop is very low imo, making this an even more profitable call I reckon.

I don't understand why he should go all in on the turn. He's not getting called by worse and he just has to worry about hearts and aces basically on the river. I think it's better to call an all in w any river that is not hearts or aces than shoving on the turn.

 

[Nr98]

I don't understand why he should go all in on the turn. He's not getting called by worse and he just has to worry about hearts and aces basically on the river. I think it's better to call an all in w any river that is not hearts or aces than shoving on the turn.

Oh yeah, with stack off I meant get it in on a favourable run out haha. We're on the same page there. X/jam at some frequency is fine I reckon OOP, but I think calling is going to be more profitable indeed.