$3.30 NLHE MTT: Was this a big mistake to bust out the tournament?

Eatscake

Eatscake

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 26/23/1

Just had my deepest ever run in an MTT managed a finish of 18/2950 for a whopping $33 and it only took me 6 hours...

Anyway heres the hand I busto'd on!

poker stars $3.00+$0.30 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t7000/t14000 Blinds + t1750 - 9 players - View hand 2407161
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

UTG+1: t453351 M = 12.34
UTG+2: t557334 M = 15.17
MP1: t154042 M = 4.19
MP2: t656868 M = 17.87
CO: t226097 M = 6.15
Hero (BTN): t204869 M = 5.57
SB: t847131 M = 23.05
BB: t471632 M = 12.83
UTG: t834011 M = 22.69

Pre Flop: (t36750) Hero is BTN with 9 :heart: 8 :heart:
UTG raises to t30649, 5 folds, Hero raises to t203119 all in, 2 folds, UTG calls t172470

Flop: (t442988) J :spade: 5 :spade: 2 :spade: (2 players - 1 is all in)

Turn: (t442988) 9 :spade: (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: (t442988) 7 :heart: (2 players - 1 is all in)

The guy I shoved on had been raising a huge percentage of hands in the last 5-6 orbits and was a pretty big stack and we were nearing final table. Therefore I thought he would be full of sh*t a large amount of the time so I shoved with 98s because of the fact that when called I have pretty decent equity against his range. As it turns out he was very strong and I didnt suck out. Do you think this was a horrible mistake or okay given the reads I had? Thanks
 
Eatscake

Eatscake

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Villain ended up having QQ. Just to add the guy tank called so I guess he might have even folded stuff as strong as AQ or 9s and lower...
 
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RamdeeBen

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You don't have much FE vs a big stack here. I doubt he would of folded any pair, I'd guess he's never folding a hand as strong as AQ. Probably likely tank called QQ because he was slow rolling or multi tabling.

I think the spot you picked was quite bad, he's opening UTG for a start and you need FE when you're doing this. You'd need to be like 20bb for this to work often enough.
 
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invisile

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I dont think we can get fold for him, because he is opening in 9max table UTG with big stack and we have like 14bb. This could work if we have like 20bb, but i think this was a bad play, because i dont think we are getting villain to fold this spot almost ever. Just fold these spots and play simple with that stack size.
 
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cplinbuffalo

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sounds like a bad time to see if he was bs'ing you lol
 
jaworek1405

jaworek1405

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I also think that all in with 98s isn't a good idea. It depends with what hands he built his stack. Did you see any showdowns with his hands or no? :) You are near to final table, so I think that he plays enough good hands to call you from UTG, because you are one of the short stacks.
 
Arjonius

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That he took a while to call is irrelevant since it happened after you shoved. You can only consider what you knew when you made your decision.

At that point, it's not just a matter of how many hands he has been opening, but also of how wide he's likely to call. In this respect, there's more to consider than how many BB you have. Here, he'd have to call for 1/4 of his stack. If the blinds were 5k/10k, which would mean you had 20BB instead of 14, how likely is it that his calling range would change given he'd still be looking at calling the same 1/4 of his stack?

What did you think his calling range was so your 98s would have "decent" equity if called? It's a post-facto observation, but if you're correct in thinking his slow call indicated a narrow calling range, that would lower your equity. It seems at least somewhat inconsistent to think he'll fold a lot and that you'll still have decent equity against his remaining calling range.
 
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