$3.30 NLHE Bounty: KQs in MP on the bubble

[BigThingWithHolesInIt]

$3.30 NL HE Bounty: KQs in MP on the bubble

10 players left, 9 get paid.

full tilt poker $3 + $0.30 KO No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t500/t1000 Blinds + t125 - 5 players - View hand 908902
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): t27408 M = 12.90
BTN: t62403 M = 29.37
SB: t34269 M = 16.13
BB: t17600 M = 8.28
UTG: t18650 M = 8.78

Pre Flop: (t2125) Hero is CO with Q ♠ K ♠
1 fold, Hero ??

 

[atlantafalcons0]

Standard raise of 2.5bb's.

 

[BigThingWithHolesInIt]

Could you explain why?

 

[atlantafalcons0]

Could you explain why?

Because you have a decent starting hand, a decent "m", and the pot is unopened.

 

[belerophon]

Standard raising prevents others from recognizing the strength of your hand.
On a 5 player game your hand is quite strong.

Raising in late position is exactly what the blinds expect you to do so they may play back at you with weaker cards.

Moreover, m's at this stage are lower so any blind you steal if they fold puts pressure on the short stacks to make a move.

 

[BigThingWithHolesInIt]

And if I get raised, automatically fold?

 

[atlantafalcons0]

Depends on how much and by whom.

 

[BigThingWithHolesInIt]

The thing is I'm having trouble assessing the situation I'm in. I know I have a nice drawing hand, strong 5-handed but still vulnerable. Two big stacks to act behind me, the shortest stack to close the action.
It seems to me that I am really likely to get reraised by any of them.
I don't particularly welcome a call either.
Since it's the bubble I would assume people are reluctant to spend their chips, but a simple 2,5 BB raise would give the big stacks a rather cheap flop.

So you see how I went back and forth and I actually thought this was a shove or fold situation, so the advice of a standard raise surprised me.

 

[atlantafalcons0]

A shove here would be a big mistake.

 

[belerophon]

These situations are really hard to pin down without specific knowledge of your opponents. You'll need to provide your opinion on the villain's abilities.

This holds true for the short stack and the big stack.

My view is that until your m is less than ten a standard raise is enough. others might disagree. Shove /fold not necessarily wrong but imdo your only getting called there with an Ace if the big stacks are really really loose meaning you have to hit or your gone. More likely you'll only get called with much better.

If someone plays back at you then you have enough of a stack to still play shove/fold.

Basically, you want to steal the blinds cheaply or hit a decent flop cheaply.

 

[atlantafalcons0]

A shove is a huge mistake because 9 places are paid and there are 10 players left. The button and sb have you covered so if they wake up with a hand, you're screwed.

A standard rasie puts pressure on the blinds and gives you a chance to get away from it if a player that's known for playing solid shoves over the top...

 

[WiZZiM]

We're raising to steal, and we have a hand that plays really well if we do get called. If called, we can decide to cbet which depends on opponant and board texture, generally a half pot will suffice.

Shoving is far too much, and way to risky. Though it's a spot where we would be relentlessly 3bet from by good players, i don't expect guys at $3 to do it that often. Open raising 2.25-2.5x is fine. We still have quite a large stack, about 25BB's effective stack size, so we're in fine shape, and we have a stack that is can raise and fold and still have plenty left over.

 

[BigThingWithHolesInIt]

Okay, thanks for the responses.
Are there hands that you would open-shove in this spot? Or should that really only come into play when our M drops below 10ish?

 

[belerophon]

Again it's very situation dependent. Maybe you have a very loose over aggressive player on a big heater who you know will insta call your AA. So close to the bubble it's unlikely anyone will call a big shove however unless they hold a giant pair.

That's why raising is such a good option at that stage. A. You can steal important late level blinds and B. it looks like your stealing blinds so when someone plays back at you with a marginal hand you can take them out when you out flop them.

 

[atlantafalcons0]

Okay, thanks for the responses.
Are there hands that you would open-shove in this spot? Or should that really only come into play when our M drops below 10ish?

I don't think I'd shove any hand in this situation....