$3,30 NL HE MTT: AQo on BN against fishy BB jam?

[Andyreas]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

3,30

Currency

$

I get dealt AQo on BN with a stack of 31 BBs and fishy BB jams on me.

Question to you:
Are the following stats good enough to call here?

BBs stats are VPIP 57, PFR 43 but only 7 hands.

I decided for yes and called.


pokerstars, $2.94 + $0.36 - Hold'em No Limit - 3,000/6,000 (750 ante) - 7 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: 135,987 (23 bb)
MP: 454,437 (76 bb)
MP+1: 231,903 (39 bb)
CO: 88,700 (15 bb)
BU (Hero): 186,393 (31 bb)
SB: 67,427 (11 bb)
BB: 293,248 (49 bb)

Pre-Flop: (14,250) Hero is BTN with A♦ Q♥
4 players fold, Hero raises to 13,200, 1 fold, BB 3-bets to 292,498 (all-in), Hero calls 172,443 (all-in)

Flop: (379,536) 9♠ Q♠ K♠ (2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: (379,536) 2♥ (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (379,536) T♣ (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: 379,536

Spoiler: Showdown

Showdown:
BB shows A♠ K♦ (a pair of Kings)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 74%, Flop: 93%, Turn: 95%, River: 100%)

BU (Hero) shows A♦ Q♥ (a pair of Queens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 26%, Flop: 7%, Turn: 5%, River: 0%)

BB wins 379,536

Edit:
I looked him up on sharkscope after posting here:

Spoiler: Real Stats

OUCH!

 

[DaMooca]

7 hands can't even be considered... and AQ from the button vs shoving from the BB I don't think there's a way to fold, because you're opening from the button several players will shove a lot of worse hands.
Even if one is a tight player who is shoving I still don't think I fold. AQ on the button is the top of the range.

 

[AKQ]

thats my fav spot ak vs aq
because people overvalue it and it is dominated
See his BB stack of 49, he is risking the #1 stack for 3 BBs? flags

Think about how many possible combos of hands he could be doing this with that are ahead AK 22+ -AA 16* (6*13) 94 combos

Now what about the hands do you beat and what are the percentages you win against them?
AQ vs QJ 72% now even though qj has 12 combos
his frequency that he would bluff jam with them is not going to be 100% as would be the case with his premium he will do that move with almost always
AQ vs 78s 58% 16 combos
AQ vs AJ 70% 12 combos
Lets just give him 30 combos of bluffs and 94 combos premium

Its bingo with AQ all the way
Theres almost nothing you dominate
but if you did make a great read guess what
Your'e still gonna be playing bingo whether you like it or not, but for your MTT life not his

AQ is a fold this deep

 

[AKQ]

sry idk stats

 

[G0930]

Edit:
I looked him up on SharkScope after posting here:

Spoiler: Real Stats

View attachment 320823

OUCH!

Yup Hes a solid player had him on my table multiple times.
Difficult to get chips from him

 

[tt124f]

The standard is to call, not to mention that you think he is fishy.

But what makes you think he is fishy? maybe we should learn from his play.

 

[StealTheButton]

Me personally, at this point in the tourney it is a clear fold. 7 hands is most definitely not enough to form an opinion. You can fold your min-raise and it will have virtually no effect on the outcome of the tournament, but call and lose this is for your life. If you were playing for longer and had a better read this may change your decision. There are just so few hands that you will be ahead of, i.e. KQ, AJ. These seem so unlikely. Even if you knew he had JJ, would you want to be in this position?

 

[Andyreas]

Even if one is a tight player who is shoving I still don't think I fold. AQ on the button is the top of the range.

I see your point. But we're both quite deep. At least from the books this play is 'acceptable' until 25 BBs.

So I didn't even love my call when I did it. I only did it because of him being in most hands while at the table. But obviously he had a good run. 😅

Your'e still gonna be playing bingo whether you like it or not, but for your MTT life not his

AQ is a fold this deep

Fair point!

Yup Hes a solid player had him on my table multiple times.
Difficult to get chips from him

Was my first time. Painful.🤣

But what makes you think he is fishy?

His stats indicate he plays more than 50% of his hands, so he can't only play premium hands. But the problem is that there were only 7 hands I observed with my HUD and that's not exactly a good statistical sample. 😅

maybe we should learn from his play.

Well everyone plays differently but I wouldn't jam from his position this deep.

Of course he has a ton of fold equity but if he get called by anything even better or worse but looses? 2/3 of his stack is gone.

You can fold your min-raise and it will have virtually no effect on the outcome of the tournament, but call and lose this is for your life.

Yes. 🥲

I was playing for more than 2 hours and was mostly in the top 10 of chips but the last 30 mins I wasn't getting any decent hands anymore. This was the first one and I was too hungry (and getting tired). 🙈

There are just so few hands that you will be ahead of, i.e. KQ, AJ. These seem so unlikely.

I see your point and mostly agree. Although, I've had a similar case with AQs on BN and the BB 3-bet jammed for more than 20 bigs effective with KJo. I called there too and lost (as well). 🤣
There's just so many types of different players out there from super loose to super tight.

But indeed, shouldn't have risked my decent stack here like this. It's the second time I was tricked by my HUD. 😆

 

[fundiver199]

I call here as well. Sure 7 hands is a small sample, but he has played 4 of them (now 5 out of 8), and he has raised most of the time, so I dont think, this is a particularly nitty player. I also think, his range is capped. If he had QQ+ I dont think, he jam, because it gives him to much fold equity. Finally AQ is very near the top of our range, when we open from BTN. So even though we are "allowed" to fold a lot to oversized raises, I think, we are folding to much, if we fold this hand. And I dont want to fold to much to someone, who look like and take lines like a maniac, even our sample is limited. And sure sometimes he will flip over AK, and we will have egg all over our face. But even if that was the case, I would still be ok with making this call.

 

[fundiver199]

Looked at the spoilers now, and he did in fact have AK, and according to his Sharkscope profile he is one of those players, who have been grinding microstakes MTTs for more than a decade without ever moving up. Had I known the Sharkscope profile, I would have been much more inclined to fold. I think, what tricked you a little bit here, is the fact, he has taken a break from PokerStars (according to Sharkscope), and thats why, you did not have any sample on him. But even so at the end of the day AK vs. AQ for 30 bigs in a late position confrontation is mostly just a cooler, so I would still not lose any sleep over this one.

 

[Marshmalo1994]

In this situation I would think that you are 'above' your opponent (pls correct me, I'm not sure how to say it 😅), but the thing is that you have +25BB if you fold, enough to keep playing for a while, waiting for better situations. He could be shoving Ax or any pair, and with that range I think that it's almost a 50-50, so i'd rather fold to be sure.
I would only consider a call with a lower stack, and if I saw him/her show worst hands before.