$3.3 NLHE MTT Bounty: Flopped TPTK, villain shoves. Nitty fold?

[leeroy818]

*my first post, so forgive any errors or missing detail!*

Hand History:

pokerstars - 500/1000 Ante 150 NL - Holdem - 9 players

UTG: 26.44 BB
UTG+1: 42.6 BB
MP: 32.64 BB
MP+1: 50.61 BB
MP+2: 48.85 BB
CO: 57.5 BB
BTN: 68.57 BB
Hero (SB): 67.08 BB
BB: 27.17 BB

9 players post ante of 0.15 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.85 BB) Hero has Ac 7c
fold, UTG+1 raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, CO calls 2 BB, BTN calls 2 BB, Hero calls 1.5 BB, BB calls 1 BB

Flop : (11.35 BB, 5 players) 5c 6h 7s
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, CO bets 3.4 BB, BTN calls 3.4 BB, Hero calls 3.4 BB, BB raises to 25.02 BB and is all-in, fold, fold, fold, fold

Hero mucks Ac 7c (One Pair, Sevens)
(Pre 0%, Flop 0%, Turn 0%)

BB wins 24.97 BB

My thoughts:

I showed my hand when folding, and a reg on the table was shocked at the fold and told me it's always a call, so I thought I'd review:

I think villain's range here is something like: 44-99, A5-A8, T7, 85-89, so sets, straights, pair+draw hands and draws, maybe some backdoor straight flush draws or something. Versus that range I have about 65% equity on the flop (but I'm obviously crushed against a set or straight). When reviewing, I noticed I was getting just over 2/1 on the call (something I didn't calculate in play), so I only needed 33% equity to profitably call, which I easily had. But at the time I thought the pair + draw hands in his range would surely just call here, so I had villain weighted more towards a made hand in that range.

What would you have done?

This was in a $3.30 PKO MTT and I had a reasonable stack approaching the bubble, but the more I look at it, the more I think I should have taken the spot! Might have set me up better to go deeper into the tournament.


Any thoughts are welcome!

 

[300HPGOD]

Two things on this hand that come into play. One is the bounty since it is a PKO. You dont mention how much villains bounty is. I think that must be considered when thinking about this decision. Second thing I will point out is we are closing the action since it was BB that shoved. That makes our decision easier as we do not have to worry about anyone behind us still to act if we decided to call.

Getting to the hand itself I think this is a fold. I dont think BB is almost ever bluffing here. If they are thinking at all they know people will call them lighter knowing their bounty is up for grabs so I dont see a bluff and I do see monster hands doing this because villains to the BB will be more apt to call an all in because of the bounty. Once we take out air and think villain is on at least somewhat of a hand what is the worst they are doing this with? I would say a pair and a straight draw (87 or 86). Against 87, 74 we are 60% and against 86, 85 we are 55% and that is the bottom of their range. Sets do this which we are 10% against, and made straights do this and we are 10% against those. 88 we are 20% ish against 88 and 99. We are getting 2 to 1 odds but I also think 87 and 86 are not as likely as over pairs here (just my feeling). You can make a case for a call since it you are getting decent odds and their is the bounty in play but remember if you lose here then you will lose 1/3rd of your stacks and other players bounties will not be in play for you unless they have a smaller stack than yours. I still think I fold here. Things change for me when you have two clubs on the flop but this spot I fold. Like I said I think people can make a case for calling here (size of bounty makes a difference here) but I dont think this a slam dunk call as the "reg" at your table said it was.

 

[fundiver199]

Two things on this hand that come into play. One is the bounty since it is a PKO. You dont mention how much villains bounty is. I think that must be considered when thinking about this decision. Second thing I will point out is we are closing the action since it was BB that shoved. That makes our decision easier as we do not have to worry about anyone behind us still to act if we decided to call.

Getting to the hand itself I think this is a fold. I dont think BB is almost ever bluffing here. If they are thinking at all they know people will call them lighter knowing their bounty is up for grabs so I dont see a bluff and I do see monster hands doing this because villains to the BB will be more apt to call an all in because of the bounty. Once we take out air and think villain is on at least somewhat of a hand what is the worst they are doing this with? I would say a pair and a straight draw (87 or 86). Against 87, 74 we are 60% and against 86, 85 we are 55% and that is the bottom of their range. Sets do this which we are 10% against, and made straights do this and we are 10% against those. 88 we are 20% ish against 88 and 99. We are getting 2 to 1 odds but I also think 87 and 86 are not as likely as over pairs here (just my feeling). You can make a case for a call since it you are getting decent odds and their is the bounty in play but remember if you lose here then you will lose 1/3rd of your stacks and other players bounties will not be in play for you unless they have a smaller stack than yours. I still think I fold here. Things change for me when you have two clubs on the flop but this spot I fold. Like I said I think people can make a case for calling here (size of bounty makes a difference here) but I dont think this a slam dunk call as the "reg" at your table said it was.

I completely agree with all of this. If the Villain has any idea at all, what he is doing, then he is not shipping the flop with a worse made hand than yours. So you are either crushed by a better made hand (straight, set, two pair), or you are flipping against some kind of big draw. Its one of those, where yeah you have TPTK, but on this kind of board thats just not a very good hand at all. There is a world of difference between AJ on J72 and A7 on 765.

So I like your decision to fold, but I am not a big fan of showing your cards. What it does is tell them "hey guys I am able to fold so please try to bluff me in future hands". And unless you are deliberately trying to induce that kind of action and know how to deal with it, thats not something, I want to do. It also give them other kinds of information, like the fact you call out of SB with a bad suited ace.

I also dont like to engage in table talk in online poker. That "reg on the table", who commented on your play, is not really, what I would call a reg. Its very unprofessional to act like a "poker teacher" on the table, so this is indicative of either a recreational player or a very bad reg, and I highly recommend to not get involved in this kind of conversation.

This is not to say, that you should never chat. If someone start a SnG with a friendly "hi everyone", I will typically reply "hi" in the chat just to make him feel welcome. But this is not live poker, where banter and table talk is kind of the whole environment and expected. So just focus on playing your hands well, and leave it to the fish to express their emotions and opinions in the chat.

 

[leeroy818]

I completely agree with all of this. If the Villain has any idea at all, what he is doing, then he is not shipping the flop with a worse made hand than yours. So you are either crushed by a better made hand (straight, set, two pair), or you are flipping against some kind of big draw. Its one of those, where yeah you have TPTK, but on this kind of board thats just not a very good hand at all. There is a world of difference between AJ on J72 and A7 on 765.

So I like your decision to fold, but I am not a big fan of showing your cards. What it does is tell them "hey guys I am able to fold so please try to bluff me in future hands". And unless you are deliberately trying to induce that kind of action and know how to deal with it, thats not something, I want to do. It also give them other kinds of information, like the fact you call out of SB with a bad suited ace.

I also dont like to engage in table talk in online poker. That "reg on the table", who commented on your play, is not really, what I would call a reg. Its very unprofessional to act like a "poker teacher" on the table, so this is indicative of either a recreational player or a very bad reg, and I highly recommend to not get involved in this kind of conversation.

This is not to say, that you should never chat. If someone start a SnG with a friendly "hi everyone", I will typically reply "hi" in the chat just to make him feel welcome. But this is not live poker, where banter and table talk is kind of the whole environment and expected. So just focus on playing your hands well, and leave it to the fish to express their emotions and opinions in the chat.

Thanks for the advice. I wouldn't normally show my hand - and it wasn't to make a statement about the hands I can fold - but I tanked and thought I should justify the long delay! (I know I don't need to justify, but I did on this occasion.)

The reg was definitely a reg, according to his sharkscope at least! Solid results over a long period. But agreed that he/she didn't need to start coaching me I guess they were referring to the price I was getting on the call being too good, but that means nothing if I'm crushed, which I felt I was!

Thanks again for the input

 

[leeroy818]

Two things on this hand that come into play. One is the bounty since it is a PKO. You dont mention how much villains bounty is. I think that must be considered when thinking about this decision. Second thing I will point out is we are closing the action since it was BB that shoved. That makes our decision easier as we do not have to worry about anyone behind us still to act if we decided to call.

Getting to the hand itself I think this is a fold. I dont think BB is almost ever bluffing here. If they are thinking at all they know people will call them lighter knowing their bounty is up for grabs so I dont see a bluff and I do see monster hands doing this because villains to the BB will be more apt to call an all in because of the bounty. Once we take out air and think villain is on at least somewhat of a hand what is the worst they are doing this with? I would say a pair and a straight draw (87 or 86). Against 87, 74 we are 60% and against 86, 85 we are 55% and that is the bottom of their range. Sets do this which we are 10% against, and made straights do this and we are 10% against those. 88 we are 20% ish against 88 and 99. We are getting 2 to 1 odds but I also think 87 and 86 are not as likely as over pairs here (just my feeling). You can make a case for a call since it you are getting decent odds and their is the bounty in play but remember if you lose here then you will lose 1/3rd of your stacks and other players bounties will not be in play for you unless they have a smaller stack than yours. I still think I fold here. Things change for me when you have two clubs on the flop but this spot I fold. Like I said I think people can make a case for calling here (size of bounty makes a difference here) but I dont think this a slam dunk call as the "reg" at your table said it was.

Ah yes, I don't often factor in the bounty with decisions like this, so thanks for that comment, I will try and use that info in future decisions along with the other stuff! If I recall correctly, he had the minimum bounty (so like $0.75 I think), which probably makes the fold even easier I guess.

Thanks for the input

 

[fundiver199]

If he only had the minimum bounty, then he had chipped up quite a bit with knocking someone out, and in that situation we can basically just ignore the bounty and analyse the spot, like it was a normal tournament. And its kind of close. I plugged it into Equilab, and if his range is 55-88, A8, 65-98, 75-86, 85s, 43s, then we have 33,3% equity. We are getting around 2:1, so in pure chip EV its close to break-even, but factoring in ICM and our future playability I like your fold.

If we take these pure break-even spots, where we have no fold equity, we are not maximizing our ROI in soft events like this. Also dropping down to 40BB will mean, there are less bounties, you can contend for, while increasing your stack to 100BB will only allow you to content for one more bounty, than you can with 60BB. So from the point of view of collecting bounties, calling and losing is definitely more bad, than calling and winning is good.

 

[Ofarah]

Tough spot but there is nothing wrong with a fold. Vil can easily have 2 pair or an open ended draw with some back door flushes maybe. Even overpairs have you dominated. I don’t think villain is jamming weak with multiple others still in the pot. Easy fold.

 

[theANMATOR]

*

I showed my hand when folding, and a reg on the table was shocked at the fold and told me it's always a call, so I thought I'd review:

What would you have done?

Any thoughts are welcome!

Good fold buddy.
And make a point to play with that reg. He's a station with one pair Ace kicker. A perfect candidate to accumulate chips from.

Always a call - pish pash.