$3.25 NLHE Turbo: Villain probably blufing, call shove with mid-pair?

[pat3392]

I had been pushing around people via lots of shoves. The opponents where passive and I would have looked like a maniac. This hand happened about 4 orbits beforehand

poker stars $3.00+$0.25, 45 SnG No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t600/t1200 Blinds + t75 - 4 players

CO: t7315 M = 3.48
BTN: t22200 M = 10.57
SB: t13137 M = 6.26
Hero (BB): t24848 M = 11.83

Pre Flop: (t2100) Hero is BB with 8:club: A:heart:
1 fold, BTN calls t1200, 1 fold, Hero checks

Flop: (t3300) 9:club: 2:club: A:spade: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets t2400, Hero calls t2400

Turn: (t8100) 2:heart: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: (t8100) 8:diamond: (2 players)
Hero bets t4800, BTN folds

I played this super safely because his limp preflop was very scary; it was the first time he had limped like this and it suggested a monster. Because of my bluffing tendencies, he probably though I was out-playing him here yet again.

This was the second time he decided to limp. He never once raised me pre, limping against my blind was the most aggressive thing he was doing
t800/t1600 Blinds + t75 - 3 players

BTN: t20840 M = 7.94
SB: t13337 M = 5.08
Hero (BB): t33323 M = 12.69

Pre Flop: (t2625) Hero is BB with 7:club: 8:diamond:
BTN calls t1600, 1 fold, Hero checks

Flop: (t4225) 8:club: 5:diamond: T:club: (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets t19165 all in, Hero?

At the time I thought that I was ahead. I thought that he didn't want to get out-played yet again and tried to make a stand. If he had any decent hand wouldn't he want me to try and out-play him? I don't buy it.

Even though I believe I'm ahead here, there's arguments for folding:

He's likely to have 30% equity here

I'm destroying the table here. They are religiously folding to my shoves and more often than not everyone is giving me a walk. Basically, if I lose this hand I'd have to tighten up since I may bust, whereas I could abuse the table to hell if I fold here.

 

[c9h13no3]

Seems like a good spot to fold. Last time he bluffed at a flop, he made a smaller bet. I'd expect this all in shove to have a lot of 8's and combo draws in it, and thus against his range you probably need to fold, especially given the overbet & the gameflow.

Also, CRAI on the river in that last hand.

 

[pat3392]

Seems like a good spot to fold. Last time he bluffed at a flop, he made a smaller bet. I'd expect this all in shove to have a lot of 8's and combo draws in it, and thus against his range you probably need to fold, especially given the overbet & the gameflow.

Also, CRAI on the river in that last hand.

Why do you suspect there to be 8's in his range here?

Why CRAI? I think leading there's better but what's your reasoning?

 

[c9h13no3]

Why do you suspect there to be 8's in his range here?

I'd expect to see a lot of good but not great hands. Hands that want to take the pot down now, but because you're opponent is bad, he just spazzes out and shoves. Bigger hands I'd expect to see slow played. So I'd put his range on something like this:

-Weaker tens, for example: 9T, JT, T7
-Flush draws, OESD's: Ac3c, J9, QcJc ect.
-Some mid pairs & 8's: A8, J8, 89, maybe 99
-Some "air" once in a while. I put air in quotes, because most of his air has at least 6 outs against us. So its kinda like a weak semi-bluff.

I suppose we could see something like slowplayed aces here once in a while, but again, I'd expect your opponent to slowplay that a bit more. And if your opponent flopped two pair, or a set, I really would expect bad players like this guy to slow play it. But honestly, I haven't played midget stakes SnG's in years, so its just a guess.

Why CRAI? I think leading there's better but what's your reasoning?

Your opponent's range has TONS AND TONS of bluffs in it, and if you bet, he'll never be able to bluff with those. Also, he's betting all his aces on the river, and you beat all of them except A9.

But the main consideration is that your opponent almost always is going to have a ton of nothing, and the only way you can get anything from his nothing is to check.

 

[pat3392]

I'd expect to see a lot of good but not great hands. Hands that want to take the pot down now, but because you're opponent is bad, he just spazzes out and shoves. Bigger hands I'd expect to see slow played. So I'd put his range on something like this:

-Weaker tens, for example: 9T, JT, T7
-Flush draws, OESD's: Ac3c, J9, QcJc ect.
-Some mid pairs & 8's: A8, J8, 89, maybe 99
-Some "air" once in a while. I put air in quotes, because most of his air has at least 6 outs against us. So its kinda like a weak semi-bluff.

I suppose we could see something like slowplayed aces here once in a while, but again, I'd expect your opponent to slowplay that a bit more. And if your opponent flopped two pair, or a set, I really would expect bad players like this guy to slow play it. But honestly, I haven't played midget stakes SnG's in years, so its just a guess.

Your opponent's range has TONS AND TONS of bluffs in it, and if you bet, he'll never be able to bluff with those. Also, he's betting all his aces on the river, and you beat all of them except A9.

But the main consideration is that your opponent almost always is going to have a ton of nothing, and the only way you can get anything from his nothing is to check.

I think he'd have pockets in his range too. I occasionally see players do this sort of thing with low pockets like 22/44, that's in headsup though.

I find it hard to put him on a range because I'd never take that line with anything whatsoever. At the time I thought he probably had junk but you're line of thinking seems better; he has something and wants to take it down now. Hmm so fold was probably best

Very good point about the bluff. Hmm let me think. I doubt he'd have hit that board. I think he'd only call my river bet with some sort of pocket pair.I don't know, he was pretty nitty so I'm not sure if he's the type to bluff against a maniac + if he did do that he might go on tilt from it, which is bad because he may actually open up and hence, start playing better.

I don't know, both options are decent. At higher stakes CRAI is probably best because villain is more likely to bluff there, I think. Not sure, something I'll consider next time I'm in this spot though