$3.25 NLHE Turbo: AK SB, 1 3x raiser, 2 callers, my move?

[pat3392]

$3.25 NL HE Turbo: AK SB, 1 3x raiser, 2 callers, my move?

poker stars $3.00+$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 45 SnG - t10/t20 Blinds

CO: t1500 75 BBs
BTN: t1490 74.50 BBs
Hero (SB): t1480 74 BBs
BB: t1500 75 BBs
UTG: t1500 75 BBs
UTG+1: t1500 75 BBs
UTG+2: t1500 75 BBs
MP1: t1530 76.50 BBs
MP2: t1500 75 BBs

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is SB with A:club: K:spade:
3 folds, MP1 raises to t60, MP2 calls t60, 1 fold, BTN calls t60, Hero raises to t300, 1 fold, MP1 raises to t1530 all in, 2 folds, Hero calls t1180 all in

What are people's thoughts on this hand?

 

[No Brainer]

Pretty standard. Any reads on villain to suggest he will only be doing this with AA,KK? If not then standard call

 

[pat3392]

Pretty standard. Any reads on villain to suggest he will only be doing this with AA,KK? If not then standard call

Nah no reads. I'm not sure if the reraise size was good, it was 20% of my stack...

 

[Rldetheflop]

well I think I am raising slightly less maybe more like 250 but the problem I have here is a shove over 2 callers and a reraise looks pretty strong to me. its early in the tourney so I know a lot of players dont mind getting it in here to try and double up or move on to the next tourney. I just think AJ or AQ aren't showing up enough here to make it profitable. More likey you are up against a pair possibly a dominating pair and with the two callers in the middle some of your outs may be taken.

 

[pat3392]

well I think I am raising slightly less maybe more like 250 but the problem I have here is a shove over 2 callers and a reraise looks pretty strong to me. its early in the tourney so I know a lot of players dont mind getting it in here to try and double up or move on to the next tourney. I just think AJ or AQ aren't showing up enough here to make it profitable. More likey you are up against a pair possibly a dominating pair and with the two callers in the middle some of your outs may be taken.

When I raised it to 300 and he shoved, I was getting 1.7:1. Therefore, I need to win 37% to be at break even.

AKo vs. QQ+,AKs,AKo
AKo wins 39%, so it's a call. If they add more hands in the push range it becomes even more +EV. I'm not sure if ICM would make this a fold though but I don't it would be, considering it's so early.


Now, let's say I reraised it to 250 and he still shoved, we'd be getting 1.59:1, so we need to win 39%. This makes it a neutral cEV spot if he's pushing QQ+,AKs,AKo. Make it a range of JJ+,AQs+,AKo then we win 43% and this becomes a clear call.

Although I agree he is pushing tight here, I think it would be foolish to assume that he's only pushing the very, very best. Remember Harrington's Law? Anyway, I think this is a call here, as gross as it seems. I really don't like reaising and basically committing ourselves to a shove but nevertheless, how else can we play this hand?

EDIT: Sorry just reread what you said. Yeah it doesn't seem profitable but if one does the math it's pretty amazing that with the dead money this is actually a call

 

[Rldetheflop]

yea I pokerstoved it before I posted so I knew it was close. Not much of an ICM tax at this stage. If its close I tend to lean towards a fold I think a call is ok too I just prefer if I am going to have all my chips in pf this early in a tourney I would rather be the shover instead of the caller.

 

[WiZZiM]

Is calling from the SB not an option here? And as far as i'm aware, we're playing for Cev, not $ev, so you can basically forget about ICM till your near the money at the final table(i could be wrong on this one).

 

[pat3392]

yea I pokerstoved it before I posted so I knew it was close. Not much of an ICM tax at this stage. If its close I tend to lean towards a fold I think a call is ok too I just prefer if I am going to have all my chips in pf this early in a tourney I would rather be the shover instead of the caller.

At the time of play there's nothing wrong with having a preference to be conservative since one can't calculate every hand to the decimal in these things, but if know that we have a 3% edge we can't pass up on that, regardless if we're shoving or calling( of course there's always that debate of "looking for a better spot")

Is calling from the SB not an option here? And as far as i'm aware, we're playing for Cev, not $ev, so you can basically forget about ICM till your near the money at the final table(i could be wrong on this one).

Well there's 4 options here:

1) Raise big(like I did) and be committed to a shove, hardly a good proposition because we're going to be in a tricky spot if they call and we miss

2) Raise smaller(180 or something), can open up ourselves for some tricky spots and consequently being out played + no one is going to fold to that, essentially it's a pot sweetener OOP which doesn't sound like a good idea

3) Shove. Huge over bet but it is the first few hands of the tournament, he may call with stuff like AJ/AQ thinking we're bluffing him. I think this is much better than the other raising options.

4) Call. Nothing wrong with this, the conservative play.


My standard move used to be option 2), then I've recently changed it to 1), but I realise now that they are far from optimal. I think shoving is best if it's early with a weak field and calling is best if they are half good.