$3.15 NLHE MTT: Late stage bluff mistake?

[ProGress39]

Hello,

Finished 32/2368 yesterday 3.15$ bounty after this bluff. In my opinion I made too small bet on turn. Let me know what u think about this spot.


GGPoker, Hold'em No Limit - 12,500/25,000 (3,500 ante) - 8 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG (Hero): 599,110 (24 bb)
UTG+1: 420,297 (17 bb)
MP: 1,424,096 (57 bb)
MP+1: 1,013,678 (41 bb)
CO: 1,157,845 (46 bb)
BU: 242,424 (10 bb)
SB: 508,597 (20 bb)
BB: 378,230 (15 bb)

Pre-Flop: (65,500) Hero is UTG with Q♥ J♦
Hero raises to 50,000, 6 players fold, BB calls 25,000

Flop: (140,500) K♥ 6♦ 6♣ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 45,000, BB calls 45,000

Turn: (230,500) A♥ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 75,000, BB calls 75,000

River: (380,500) A♠ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 250,000, BB calls 204,730 (all-in)

Total pot: 789,960

Showdown:
UTG (Hero) shows Q♥ J♦ (two pair, Aces and Sixes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 26%, Flop: 4%, Turn: 9%, River: 0%)

BB shows Q♦ K♣ (two pair, Aces and Kings)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 74%, Flop: 96%, Turn: 91%, River: 100%)

BB wins 789,960

 

[eetenor]

Hello,

Finished 32/2368 yesterday 3.15$ bounty after this bluff. In my opinion I made too small bet on turn. Let me know what u think about this spot.


GGPoker, Hold'em No Limit - 12,500/25,000 (3,500 ante) - 8 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG (Hero): 599,110 (24 bb)
UTG+1: 420,297 (17 bb)
MP: 1,424,096 (57 bb)
MP+1: 1,013,678 (41 bb)
CO: 1,157,845 (46 bb)
BU: 242,424 (10 bb)
SB: 508,597 (20 bb)
BB: 378,230 (15 bb)

Pre-Flop: (65,500) Hero is UTG with Q♥ J♦
Hero raises to 50,000, 6 players fold, BB calls 25,000

Flop: (140,500) K♥ 6♦ 6♣ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 45,000, BB calls 45,000

Turn: (230,500) A♥ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 75,000, BB calls 75,000

River: (380,500) A♠ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 250,000, BB calls 204,730 (all-in)

Total pot: 789,960

Showdown:
UTG (Hero) shows Q♥ J♦ (two pair, Aces and Sixes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 26%, Flop: 4%, Turn: 9%, River: 0%)

BB shows Q♦ K♣ (two pair, Aces and Kings)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 74%, Flop: 96%, Turn: 91%, River: 100%)

BB wins 789,960

Thank you for posting

We lead flop- V calls warning bells should go off. They fold all their junk and just continue with high equity hands. The stab is fine but as it turned out the V was trapping with KQ. The V has 5bb left after calling flop they are seldom folding a K or the 6 which they could have as well. Turn we stab again they do not fold -ok we tried the Ace pairing river hurts us not helps us as now it is more likely we have a K or a 6 and this player was never folding the river they wanted you to show them a better hand.

You not raising preflop and betting flop with an Ace does not make sense we should be raising even shoving all our AX hands not just calling preflop. So when we bet we have Kx which they beat or a 6 which at 6 bb they want you to show them the 6.

Hope this helps

 

[300HPGOD]

Pre flop I would fold this since there are jam stacks after you in the button, SB, and BB and I personally would not be calling jams with QJ off. On top of that QJ off is not a hand I like playing from UTG to begin with so this plays much better as a fold to me.

On the flop I like betting since if the villain has no K,6, or pocket pair they will probably fold and also once the tournament gets deeper as it is here villains tend to float less. You definitely do not have to go big here and personally I think down betting is fine but I dont know how the villain will perceive it. Just for that reason alone I would make sure my bet is a little larger than my initial raise size so I would go 55k exactly here. Again I like your sizing and I dont think villain is floating too much but I still personally would go 55k instead of 45k. Once villain calls I would be dropping a f bomb and would think they have something here otherwise they would have folded. My plan going to the turn would be to check behind assuming they check to us.

The turn comes an ace which would then make me deviate from my plan and I would rep the ace here especially if I think villain would fold Kx and in this case I would think they would be at least enough of the time that making a 1/3rd bet here is profitable and even if they call I have 4 straight outs and maybe even Q or J is good over a hand like 77 (if they would call 2 streets with 77). I like the sizing you did on the turn.

River imo helps us cause now the best hand is on the board and if villain was super sticky with 22 (which I doubt but its non zero) then we chop. When villain checks to us I would be very happy here to check behind since there are no hands they called two streets with that they are now folding to a bet on the river. I would take the showdown value we have (that is playing the board) and quickly check behind. What hand is the river bet going to get to fold except the extreme rare cases where villain got counterfeited? They will think even less likely now that you have Ax.

 

[eetenor]

Thank you for posting

We lead flop- V calls warning bells should go off. They fold all their junk and just continue with high equity hands. The stab is fine but as it turned out the V was trapping with KQ. The V has 5bb left after calling flop they are seldom folding a K or the 6 which they could have as well. Turn we stab again they do not fold -ok we tried the Ace pairing river hurts us not helps us as now it is more likely we have a K or a 6 and this player was never folding the river they wanted you to show them a better hand.

You not raising preflop and betting flop with an Ace does not make sense we should be raising even shoving all our AX hands not just calling preflop. So when we bet we have Kx which they beat or a 6 which at 6 bb they want you to show them the 6.

Hope this helps

WOW I completely misread this from the viewer- Sorry brain fart-

Stab Stab give up is fine.

 

[Bnobob]

Cc Thief

you made a horrible play, you stole on the flop and made the same mistake on the turn; Most players only steal on the flop:angel:

 

[AKQ]

my biggest tick was
If your'e gonna min raise preflop and cbet that flop of k66
Representing you have ace high a king or mabey even a pair.
The flop bet you made just smelled completely weak and doesn't price out an opponent with ace high.
If you bet 50%+ and he calls then you can be much more sure that he has you beat and you can shutdown.
Aggression can be very telling
While being weak leaves you in the dark
and your'e gonna have to dbl barrel the turn blind
A thinking opponent can now float and playback at you due to your tell.
I woulda check shoved on you with any 2 on the flop as well as if i had the 6 or the K...i'm that guy

I DID NOT WATCH THE END OF YOUR HAND OR EVEN SEE THE TURN AS I WANTED TO GIVE YOU GTO INSIGHT now imma go watch you play the turn


If he called 45k on the flop 75k on the turn doesn't accomplish much. people that flop top pair and are slowplaying you arent going away at the price Even when the ACE falls.
But I bet a shove here woulda won but mabey not if you're not the type of player to never shove when you hit this spot with ak.

Dont be cheap get rid of the 2x preflop go with2.5x+ and try to use the same number every time
your cbet needs to be strong 50%+ then you get value and protect your good hands and gain the dead pots your'e looking for


wish you luck at the tables

 

[AKQ]

if you ever got into that same spot again.
Do you believe you could have:
A. avoided it all together
B. lost less
C. won the hand
Their all good choices
but C is where the fun is at

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
You are lighting chips on fire by opening bad offsuit broadways from UTG.

Flop
This is a fine spot to C-bet small with our entire range. Given how short he is, I would never play this as a 3 street hand though, and for that reason I would bet slightly more on the flop, so that I can jam turn for less than pot. Not that I will always do it, but I want to have the option to do it, and I will play my entire range this way.

Turn
You did hit the perfect card to continue, both because it changed the texture, and because it gave you a gutshot, so at least you have a little bit of something now. As I said already, for me this would now be a jam. Even with your flop sizing its only a slight overbet, and this would be my play here. The alternative, which is also fine, is to check back and hope to hit the miracle card on the river.

River
This was a pretty bad card for you, mostly because it makes your story less believable. You are trying to sell the idea, you have an ace in your hand, but that just became 33% less likely, because now two of them are on the board. I am not surpriced at all, that he hero called you with KX, and I think, this is key to the situation. If you cant get KX to fold, then this is not a profitable spot to bluff. And at this limit I dont think, anyone are partially calling with KX. They either fold all their KX, in which case they are overfolding, or they call all their KX, in which case they are overcalling. The latter is far more likely, given what I just wrote, and therefore I would not have any bluffs on this particular river. Just check back and hope to occationally chop against some other hand, that is also playing the board.

 

[liuouhgkres]

Preflop: Fold. Get preflop ranges for god's sake, this is a terrible open.

Flop: This is a good board to range bet small. I like your bet.

Turn: SPR is very awkward. I think we should use 2 bet sizes: overbet allin and a very small bet. For either sizings we need some bluffs and I think QJ makes a good bluff either way. So I like your bet.

River: River is tricky and it depends on villain. If villain is stationy then it's check back. If villain is tight then I would just jam. By default I think it's a good bluff, you block AQ/AJ and best KQ/KJ which are best Kx hands. Jam is good.