$3.00 NL HE STT: Correct play here or not?

[tzuriel]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

STT

Buy-in

3.00

Currency

$

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

Middle stage in a single table SNG (6 left, 3 get paid), I am basically tied for 2nd with this opponent but there is a lot of time left.

PF I can't fold this for such a small 3bet and he is showing strength indicating I have some implied odds if I hit the flop. Pretty sure I'm behind on the flop but not by much with this combo draw. I don't think I can just call that flop bet and check raise AI. I miss but I think this was the right play. Agree or disagree?

NL Holdem $3+$0.30 (120.00BB)
CO (29.7BBs) [VPIP: 16.1% | PFR: 12.9% | AGG: 27.8% | Hands: 62]
BTN (38.8BBs)
SB (11.9BBs)
BB (16BBs
HERO (29.9BBs)
HJ (23.7BBs)

Dealt to Hero: J♣ Q♣

HERO Raises To 2.3BBs, HJ Folds, CO Raises To 5.6BBs, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Folds, HERO Calls 3.3BBs

Hero SPR on Flop: [1.86 effective]
Flop (13BBs): A♠ 6♣ K♣
HERO Checks, CO Bets 9.8BBs (Rem. Stack: 14.4BBs), HERO Raises To 24.3BBs (allin), CO Calls 14.4BBs (allin)

Turn (61.5BBs): A♠ 6♣ K♣ 9♦

River (61.5BBs): A♠ 6♣ K♣ 9♦ 6♠

Spoiler

CO shows: A♥ K♦

CO wins: 61.3BBs

 

[300HPGOD]

Pre: we are going against a tight player here that is 16/13 so I dont expect their 3 bet here to be garbage ever. You didnt post their 3 bet stats but I am guessing with a 13% raise rate that their 3 bet % is not something out of line. With that being said, their range is skewed very heavily towards top end hands and those top hands are dominating you often or are at least very good against you. The raise is small which would probably be enough to make me bite on this hand and call but I dont think we are ever ahead here pre and need to realize the hands we are generally up against and also what type of flops we are planning to attack on (check raise) and what we flops we need to just say move on before we make this call.

Flop: This is the really the worst for us since we called and hit a flush draw but the cards that are on the board we know smack our opponent. Here, we would need to have a feel that Ace wheel hands and some mid pairs would 3 bet us in this hand pre and from a 16/13 player I am not sure you are getting that meaning you are up against a big pair or a good Ax a large % of the time here. Will villain fold Ax here to a jam that is less than 3 times their stack? I dont know the answer to that since I have no experience with villain but hopefully you would have some sort of bead on that and make a decision from there. More than likely though, I dont think villain is folding, they already have a pair often and that pair is bigger than either of our cards. We would be dependent on a flush or the 10 coming and thinking that you would not get a fold here I think you lose chips on this jam over time. It sucks cause we called pre (which again I think is fine based on the price), hit a flush draw and a straight draw but it just doesnt line up here. When we jam we want some fold equity with it and I just dont think we have much here. So tight as it is, I fold here (good bet sizing by villain if he knew which two cards you had, overall I think its too large of a sizing for his hand) and move on. With no ace flopping, its different since the likelihood of a pair by villain goes way down but on this board I dont think a jam is right imo.

 

[tzuriel]

I wasn't expecting a fold so you are saying to make this play, the big draw is not enough and I would need to have some fold equity as well? I knew I was behind pre and on the flop. But as mentioned, I didn't think I was too far behind with that draw. As it turns out, I had about 40% equity on the flop. I was certain he had an A or a K. Didn't expect both but I felt willing to take a small gamble to get his stack. It was nearly a flip but since it was for essentially my whole stack, maybe it was too ambitious.

 

[eetenor]

I wasn't expecting a fold so you are saying to make this play, the big draw is not enough and I would need to have some fold equity as well? I knew I was behind pre and on the flop. But as mentioned, I didn't think I was too far behind with that draw. As it turns out, I had about 40% equity on the flop. I was certain he had an A or a K. Didn't expect both but I felt willing to take a small gamble to get his stack. It was nearly a flip but since it was for essentially my whole stack, maybe it was too ambitious.

I think the stats the V is showing should influence how we evaluate their actions. Firstly the raise size preflop is perfect for the stack sizes on the table as it allows the V to get all-in preflop even if the shortest stack shoves which is a great leverage spot for them vs you- Then the flop sizing -maybe by accident- is great if they ever balance in a spot like this-but much more likely the stats suggest they will over bet strong hands-which they did- This sizing can be used with KK as well in a 3 bet pot as we want to target a condensed continue range from you for value based on stack size here- As we saw here calling sucks SPR wise so they do trigger shoves often and OOP we are overfolding to stack protect- so Villain using small value sizing is not necessary here-

It seems this would be the one player I would consider folding pre at this stack depth expecting to see that large flop sizing often -

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Standard open of course. Facing the 3-bet is an interesting spot. The opponent is a tight player, and he choose a small sizing against a player, who opened first to act. All of this scream strength, so you are clearly against a very strong range, but you are also getting a good price only needing to realise 25% equity. However this is not factoring in ICM, and out of position you are always going to underrealise your equity, plus you clearly have reverse implied odds, when you flop top pair, and he has an overpair.

So realistically you want to have much more than 25% equity against his range to make this call. To examine this I pulled out Equilab and gave him some ranges. The widest range, I think, you are ever against here, is JJ+, AK, AQs. Against that you have 29%, which given what I wrote about makes this a very break-even call. His range could also be even tighter though. A range of QQ+, AKs is definitely realistic given his sizing and stats. Against that you only have 22% equity, so now you are not even getting the direct odds to call.

So I actually think, this is a fold. If you watch high stakes MTT final tables you will see top pros using small 3-bet sizing like this, and you will also see other top pros folding to it out of position. So folding is actually the GTO line in this situation, and when you are against someone, who is almost certainly completely unbalanced with no bluffs whatsoever in their 3-betting range, you just need to let it go and move on. I understand, why you called, and I dont blame you for doing it, but learning to make this fold will give you a big edge on the field in games like this one.

Flop
When he makes this large C-bet, he has put in around half his chips, which mean, he has committed himself to the pot. This means, he is never folding, and he is also never bluffing. His range is AA, KK, AK and maybe AQs. If he has QQ or JJ preflop, he is not betting the flop for this sizing, when there are two overcards. So basically you are facing a jam for 1,86 times the pot, which mean, you need slightly less than 40% equity in chip EV. However that does not factor in ICM, so in reality you want more than 40% to make this call. Especially since you likely have a skill edge, so you can find better spots that tossing a coin for all your chips.

So now that we know, how much equity, you need, its time to plug the board into Equilab and give him that range of AA, KK, AK and AQs. The result is, you have 37% equity, and this is just not enough, so unfortunately this is still a fold, even though you flopped a 12 out draw. Once again I dont blame you for calling. I think, most players would. But this is not a long term profitable call, and being able to make this fold will give you an edge in the game.

Results
I did not look at the results before writing the above analysis. But yes of course he had AK (or AA or KK). You dont need a doctorate in hand reading to figure that out given his line and his stats. So all in all a very instructional hand, which people can learn a lot from

 

[tzuriel]

ThanksFundiver. You are spot on as usual.