$3.00 NL HE STT: Call with 40% equity?

[tzuriel]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

STT

Buy-in

3.00

Currency

$

I am a slight chip leader (by just under 3 bb) in the late stages of this Single Table SnG. 5 remain. 3 get paid. QJs is a nice hand to see a flop with but there is a shove and a call ahead of me. Not too worried about the shorty who called in the SB w/4bb but the CO is only doing this with an expected range of 22+,A2s+,KQs,T9s,ATo+,KQo. I have about 40% equity in this hand but my EV to remain the chip leader might be worth folding to this kind of action. He is ahead of me and I would have to get lucky to catch up.

Folding or calling?

NL Holdem $3+$0.25 (200.00BB)
HERO (32.7BBs)
HJ (30.6BBs) [VPIP: 45.1% | PFR: 26.4% | AGG: 19% | hands: 93]
CO (13.7BBs) [VPIP: 30% | PFR: 20% | AGG: 23.1% | Hands: 40]
BTN (8.9BBs) [VPIP: 17.9% | PFR: 12.8% | AGG: 10% | Hands: 41]
SB (4.1BBs) [VPIP: 30% | PFR: 20% | AGG: 10.5% | Hands: 31]

Dealt to Hero: Q♦ J♦

HJ Folds, CO Raises To 13.7BBs (allin), BTN Folds, SB Calls 3.5BBs (allin), HERO Folds

 

[spunka]

It is a fold, you have to play safe here, not gamble after this there might only be 1 place to the money

 

[Luvepoker]

You need 42.47% equity to make this a call. If you believeyou have about 40% then a fold is correct. If it was just the CO i think you may have more equity but 3 way its hand to say what you would have. Then add in ICM considerations and I think its a easy fold. I wont tast so goo but I think its the best move to be honest in this situation.

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[300HPGOD]

I think this is a fold either way but do we really think CO is opening that wide when they are in 3rd place when only 3 get paid? With you as the chip leader still to act in the hand and especially with the one on life support about to have to jam any two cards into you blind vs blind? I don't think they would so I think the jamming range you have for them is too wide unless they completely ignore ICM which maybe you know this villain does but without that info I think you are facing a tighter range meaning your equity is less. Factor in if you lose the hand you will still be in 3rd but then one more all in loss after that and you could be in jeopardy and with the loss you lose your hold on a top two spot with a decent amount of room between the top two and 3rd which has value (ICM). So for all those reasons this is a fold. You get to see what villain jammed even you fold so take note of it and the stack, position, 3rd place out of 5, etc. and you will gain a lot of info going forward.

 

[tzuriel]

I think this is a fold either way but do we really think CO is opening that wide when they are in 3rd place when only 3 get paid? With you as the chip leader still to act in the hand and especially with the one on life support about to have to jam any two cards into you blind vs blind? I don't think they would so I think the jamming range you have for them is too wide unless they completely ignore ICM which maybe you know this villain does but without that info I think you are facing a tighter range meaning your equity is less. Factor in if you lose the hand you will still be in 3rd but then one more all in loss after that and you could be in jeopardy and with the loss you lose your hold on a top two spot with a decent amount of room between the top two and 3rd which has value (ICM). So for all those reasons this is a fold. You get to see what villain jammed even you fold so take note of it and the stack, position, 3rd place out of 5, etc. and you will gain a lot of info going forward.

Thanks HP. Great insights.

 

[rock0001]

fold. qj suited isnt that strong to risk almost half of your stack against the cutoff shove.

 

[fundiver199]

This is a very easy fold. Against a 13,7BB shove the discount, which you are getting in the big blind, does not really matter, and there is not even any dead chips from SB, since he has also moved in. So a simple way of looking at this in real time is, that you want to be ahead of at least half COs range. And that is very clearly not the case here. You are behind to any AX, any KX and any pair, and those hands make up the huge majority of his range. Maybe he can have a few worse suited connectors, but thats like maybe 5-10% of his range at best.

We can also use ICM software to find the exact answer, which I did. At the Nash equilibrium CO is jamming 24% of hands, SB is overjamming 22% of hands, and you are calling 8,8% of hands. Your range for calling is 66+, AT+, so QJs is nowhere near being a call. In fact calling would lose you 1,04% of the price pool, which is enough to make it a major blunder. In top of that I think, many people would not open jam 24% of hands for 13,7BB, when there are two shorter stacks left to act behind them. So realistically his range is probably tighter than the NASH equilibrium, which makes calling with QJs even worse.

 

[Matt_Burns88]

@300HPGOD and @fundiver199 have pretty much said it all.

Sometimes we can get blinded buy suited paint cards, but in this situation they're as pretty as 93o.

 

[christovam]

Call. If he had only 4 BB he could bet everything with several worse hands.