$.28 PLO MTT: $ PLO MTT: Opting not to scale back river bet

[Jdjakubisin]

Other situations I might scale back my bet on the river to induce a call, but here this guy only bet 1bb on the flop and called my pot bet on the turn. I love an inside 9 to make a potential straight while it completes my boat. 7's full of k's would have been nice for him too.

Winning Poker, Omaha Pot Limit - 250/500 (75 ante) - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/4qk0Yau

DansAces2 (UTG): 49,925 (100 bb)
tiller69153 (MP): 44,475 (89 bb)
ElRelaxo (CO): 51,400 (103 bb)
stanley874 (BU): 50,575 (101 bb)
JD Jakubisin (SB): 44,400 (89 bb)
GatiN_PretO (BB): 47,595 (95 bb)

Pre-Flop: (1,200) Hero (JD Jakubisin) is SB with 9♠ 5♠ A♣ 9♦
DansAces2 (UTG) calls 500, 3 players fold, JD Jakubisin (SB) calls 250, GatiN_PretO (BB) checks

Flop: (1,950) 7♠ T♠ 7♦ (3 players)
JD Jakubisin (SB) checks, GatiN_PretO (BB) checks, DansAces2 (UTG) bets 500, JD Jakubisin (SB) calls 500, GatiN_PretO (BB) folds

Turn: (2,950) 9♣ (2 players)
JD Jakubisin (SB) bets 2,950, DansAces2 (UTG) calls 2,950

River: (8,850) K♥ (2 players)
JD Jakubisin (SB) bets 8,850, DansAces2 (UTG) folds

Total pot: 8,850
JD Jakubisin (SB) wins 8,850

 

[eetenor]

Other situations I might scale back my bet on the river to induce a call, but here this guy only bet 1bb on the flop and called my pot bet on the turn. I love an inside 9 to make a potential straight while it completes my boat. 7's full of k's would have been nice for him too.

Winning Poker, Omaha Pot Limit - 250/500 (75 ante) - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/4qk0Yau

DansAces2 (UTG): 49,925 (100 bb)
tiller69153 (MP): 44,475 (89 bb)
ElRelaxo (CO): 51,400 (103 bb)
stanley874 (BU): 50,575 (101 bb)
JD Jakubisin (SB): 44,400 (89 bb)
GatiN_PretO (BB): 47,595 (95 bb)

Pre-Flop: (1,200) Hero (JD Jakubisin) is SB with 9♠ 5♠ A♣ 9♦
DansAces2 (UTG) calls 500, 3 players fold, JD Jakubisin (SB) calls 250, GatiN_PretO (BB) checks

Flop: (1,950) 7♠ T♠ 7♦ (3 players)
JD Jakubisin (SB) checks, GatiN_PretO (BB) checks, DansAces2 (UTG) bets 500, JD Jakubisin (SB) calls 500, GatiN_PretO (BB) folds

Turn: (2,950) 9♣ (2 players)
JD Jakubisin (SB) bets 2,950, DansAces2 (UTG) calls 2,950

River: (8,850) K♥ (2 players)
JD Jakubisin (SB) bets 8,850, DansAces2 (UTG) folds

Total pot: 8,850
JD Jakubisin (SB) wins 8,850

Thank U 4 Posting

What range of hands does our villain have on the turn?

If we bet 1/4 pot vs pot, the pot bet would have to win 25% of the time to be equal to the smaller bet.

Vs the range you give V on the turn is the pot sized bet the best considering the above criteria.

In case you have not done this before we have to estimate calls.

If the 1/4 pot bet gets called 76% of the time.
Pot bet has to be called 14%

So If we give our V a 7 will our V hit the K 14% of the time?
Will our V call with just a 7 14%?
Will a straight call pot 14%?


Hope this helps

 

[Jdjakubisin]

Thank U 4 Posting

What range of hands does our villain have on the turn?

If we bet 1/4 pot vs pot, the pot bet would have to win 25% of the time to be equal to the smaller bet.

Vs the range you give V on the turn is the pot sized bet the best considering the above criteria.

In case you have not done this before we have to estimate calls.

If the 1/4 pot bet gets called 76% of the time.
Pot bet has to be called 14%

So If we give our V a 7 will our V hit the K 14% of the time?
Will our V call with just a 7 14%?
Will a straight call pot 14%?


Hope this helps

I HAVE 8 total hands from him in my counter and he has won absolutely nothing. He's shown me nothing but desperation by folding on later streets every time versus anything.

 

[eetenor]

I HAVE 8 total hands from him in my counter and he has won absolutely nothing. He's shown me nothing but desperation by folding on later streets every time versus anything.

Thank U 4 Responding.

With that data set at that time, your pot size bet could be correct. If we can know the villain will only call any size bet with 107 or K7 than we would never choose anything but pot.

We would never sacrifice max value when 7x folds 100%.

However, with such a small data set we could also make a 1bb bet. Even a cowardly villain pots a full house on the river some % when we bet 1bb so we do not miss out on K7 value.

Also it is incredibly hard to fold to 1bb for most of us. So this V might call 1bb and 1bb is better than 0bb.

Experimenting with bet sizing is always interesting to do.

Hope this helps

 

[eetenor]

I HAVE 8 total hands from him in my counter and he has won absolutely nothing. He's shown me nothing but desperation by folding on later streets every time versus anything.

Thank U 4 Responding.

With that data set at that time, your pot size bet could be correct. If we can know the villain will only call any size bet with 107 or K7 than we would never choose anything but pot.

We would never sacrifice max value when 7x folds 100%.

However, with such a small data set we could also make a 1bb bet. Even a cowardly villain pots a full house on the river some % when we bet 1bb so we do not miss out on K7 value.

Also it is incredibly hard to fold to 1bb for most of us. So this V might call 1bb and 1bb is better than 0bb.

Experimenting with bet sizing is always interesting to do.

Hope this helps

 

[Sidetracked]

I would think that a smaller bet might have got a call. I've played against that guy, and he's atrociously bad.