$27 NLHE MTT Bounty: Is hero ever beat here?

[teebahnoo]

No Limit Hold'em Tournament T50/T100
Buy-in: $12.30+$12.25+$2.45 USD Hold'em No Limit
PokerStars
9 players
Formatted by SharkScope.com - Track your poker statistics and avoid the sharks

Stacks:
UTG - UTG (T24,778)
UTG+1 - UTG+1 (T7,264)
UTG+2 - UTG+2 (T9,772)
MP - MP (T10,283)
MP2 - Hero (T15,466)
CO - CO (T15,012)
BTN - BTN (T12,511)
SB - SB (T8,693)
BB - BB (T15,283)

Preflop: (T240, 9 players) Hero is MP2 with 3♠ 5♠
UTG raises to T214, 3 folds, Hero calls T214, 2 folds, SB calls T164, BB calls T114

Flop: 5♥ 5♣ 2♦ (T946, 4 players - Hero: T15,242, SB: T8,469, BB: T15,059, UTG: T24,554)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets T631, Hero calls T631, 2 folds

Turn: 9♠ (T2,208, 2 players - Hero: T14,611, UTG: T23,923)
UTG checks, Hero bets T1,214, UTG calls T1,214

River: J♠ (T4,636, 2 players - Hero: T13,397, UTG: T22,709)
UTG bets T3,800, Hero raises to T7,600, UTG raises to T22,709 (all-in), Hero ??

 

[Sidetracked]

You are beaten by JJ, 99, 22, and A5s.

All of those hands are in his range.

 

[Edu1]

UTG/villain hands who would win in this spot:
A5- imho he don't have this hand, who open A5 utg frequently?
22- is in UTG range, but is a low %, maybe he is slow playing, I don't know.
99- probably would check-raise in the turn, so...
JJ- the most probable hand he have, based in how he play. he can have a bluff too...
conclussion - 35s is a marginal hand to play a $27 bounty tourney and yes hero can be beat in this situation

 

[fundiver199]

I would rather turn the question around and ask, if Hero is ever good here? And I think, the answer is no. I would be surpriced, if Villain did not have exactly JJ. Betting flop for value/protection, check-calling turn for pot control, leading river for value, very happy when he get raised. Its the only hand, where every action makes sense. I also think, there are two mistakes in the hand:

1) Calling preflop is to loose, just fold
2) Raising the river is to thin, just call

 

[teebahnoo]

Well, I wasn’t beat just wondered what you think. It was a bluff he missed with AK and punted because he was the big stack.

Nobody opens 22 in UTG in a bounty builder when there aren’t short stack at the table. And if they open 99 or JJ they will not allow second biggest stack to outdraw them.

I think there are poorer hand reviews out there, I just never seen one so far. You people do no effort in looking at the stack size, or blinds level but you think 53s is not a play with only one in the pot. It’s actually in the perfect range against UTG but what punters know? Give them AQ+ so they can come on CardsChat and do “hand review”

 

[Evan Jarvis]

You are beaten by JJ, 99, 22, and A5s.

All of those hands are in his range.

Agreed. Yes.

And when he jams over your river raise it's unlikely he has anything else.

Oh the joys and dangers of playing the baby suited connectors :icon_comp

 

[Evan Jarvis]

Well, I wasn’t beat just wondered what you think. It was a bluff he missed with AK and punted because he was the big stack.

Nobody opens 22 in UTG in a bounty builder when there aren’t short stack at the table. And if they open 99 or JJ they will not allow second biggest stack to outdraw them.

I think there are poorer hand reviews out there, I just never seen one so far. You people do no effort in looking at the stack size, or blinds level but you think 53s is not a play with only one in the pot. It’s actually in the perfect range against UTG but what punters know? Give them AQ+ so they can come on CardsChat and do “hand review”

Sounds like I need to get in these bounty builders... that's... that's just real bad on his part

nh, guess you showed us why you get in there with the 53s you had the mark pegged

 

[Jon Poker]

I read the spoiler but I dont think it effects my opinion on this hand at all.

We flop the world for 35s - the flop is extremely dry, there are no flush draws on board, it's pretty polarizing for us to bet into two opponents here even tho we have position and should be floating alot of our Ax hands that missed, we could be betting pairs like 66+ that wouldn't 3bet preflop. For those reasons I would get deceptive and check back here just because it's so hard to get value, especially betting that big, 2/3 pot on this dry board should always be a made hand of some sort and I would probably float one and fold AK here...hell I may even fold it on the flop and thus you are losing value.

The turn changed nothing - here is where I would start betting for value, I would still only go about 40% pot or so as the board is very dry and is going to be hard for our opponents to connect with.

The river again changes nothing - would be betting for value again and if I get raised I am snap calling. Yes they have A5s and JJ or 99 in their range but playing it that passively they will have to show it to me. No point in reraising the river here...are we doing that for value or as a bluff? If we are doing it for value then what hands that are worse are we targeting to call us? AJ? 66s, 77s, 88s, TTs? Maybe the opponent thought he was walking you with QQ+ here...maybe those overpairs call but from good players a 3bet on the river is polarizing AF! They will likely be able to sniff it out and fold as well. Anyhow, what worse hands could call...there just isnt very many...this raise should be strong and I feel like my hand is too strong to fold here so for those reasons I just call the river raise.

As played - you got value from a spaz and they basically gave it all to you on the river even though their 3bet line with air shouldve been suuuuuper nutted. I think there were a few mistakes here, but nothing that couldn't be ironed out with a little discipline.

Hope this helps!

 

[fundiver199]

For those reasons I would get deceptive and check back here

The preflop raiser C-bet the flop, so checking back was not an option. I think, the flop and turn lines are perfectly fine, but on the river I really prefer to just call that donk bet. At that point the hand gets pretty weird, and whenever a hand gets weird, and we dont have the nuts, its usually fine to just get to showdown and see, what he heck he had.

 

[Jon Poker]

The preflop raiser C-bet the flop, so checking back was not an option. I think, the flop and turn lines are perfectly fine, but on the river I really prefer to just call that donk bet. At that point the hand gets pretty weird, and whenever a hand gets weird, and we dont have the nuts, its usually fine to just get to showdown and see, what he heck he had.

Totally missed this point in the text. Thought we were the post flop aggressor. I agree though. No sense raising the river, what do we get called by that's worse? When he reraises us he puts us in a super rough spot as well as he should never be showing up with worse than trips here...just lucky for you this time he did. I think you need to avoid putting yourself in these spots where players are very unlikely to bluff rivers on such uncoordinated boards.

 

[Nr98]

Fold preflop easy as

 

[Collin Moshman]

It's best to fold pre-flop. As played, the flop and turn are good and you should definitely call off the river shove. You're getting great odds. And he will be on a wider range because of the chance of winning your bounty.

 

[Collin Moshman]

Just to clarify on the odds point -- It looks like the pot is around $25k at this point and it costs around $6k to call. Getting better than 4:1 odds, you'll show a profit if you have the best hand even as infrequently as 20% of the time. I would definitely not assume opponents are so rarely bluffing or value-shoving worse (particularly in a bounty).

 

[fundiver199]

Just to clarify on the odds point -- It looks like the pot is around $25k at this point and it costs around $6k to call. Getting better than 4:1 odds, you'll show a profit if you have the best hand even as infrequently as 20% of the time. I would definitely not assume opponents are so rarely bluffing or value-shoving worse (particularly in a bounty).

We have trips no kicker, and I definitely dont think, Villain is ever 3-betting anything worse for value. The issue in this hand is Heros raise on the river. This should just have been an easy call and get to showdown. Also if we are going to raise the river with for instance 99 or JJ, the only size, that makes sense, is to move all in. What is the purpose of clicking it back, when we have less than a pot sized bet left?

 

[1player2]

Hello,



I would call here. Realistically i put him on a premium pocket pair or AK,AQ,AJs. The only hand you are losing to is pockets J's or Pocket 9's. I don't think you can fold here. Call and win most of the time.

 

[fishfood80]

You can be beat some of the time here. A5 and JJ are the two most likely hands that have you beat here with villains line imo. But he also has a ton of bluffs and weaker hands that could try to get value after this runout. I believe it’s a call but I probably would have just called the river instead of raising and then being put to the test.

 

[Vilgeoforc]

The probability that the hero will be beaten is very small. We can only lose 99 and JJ. But we can collect a stack with AA, KK, QQ, TT. The probability that the villain has a five with UTG is very small, the opponent's range is very strong. A5s and K5s are not here.

 

[andrestc]

I would fold this preflop. The only way I'm flatting here is if I cover UTG and I have him marked as a recreational player.


As played, I would call river. No reason to raise here.