$26 nlhe mtt: OP + gutshot facing flop shove.

[outkasts]

WWYD?

full tilt poker Game #20641791650: $18,000 Guarantee (158556969), Table 66 - 20/40 - No Limit Hold'em - 1:26:06 ET - 2010/05/07
Seat 1: dchap17 (3,240)
Seat 2: alcoholman69 (2,440)
Seat 3: OutKasts (5,000)
Seat 4: Babybeaver (2,795)
Seat 5: Dsuweber (3,560)
Seat 6: fourcheap (4,775)
Seat 7: Gameboy124 (5,360)
Seat 8: DeMaci (3,410)
Seat 9: Time of show (3,570)
Time of show posts the small blind of 20
dchap17 posts the big blind of 40
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to OutKasts [Js Jc]
alcoholman69 folds
OutKasts raises to 120
Babybeaver calls 120
Dsuweber folds
fourcheap calls 120
Gameboy124 folds
DeMaci folds
Time of show calls 100
dchap17 folds
*** FLOP *** [Th 7s 9s]
Time of show checks
OutKasts has 15 seconds left to act
OutKasts bets 480
Babybeaver raises to 2,675, and is all in

 

[fletchdad]

It depends on your read, on beaver as well as the two to follow. With TP, backdoor flush draw and gut shot, I find it hard to fold here. Unless u r 100% sure (and how can you be??lol) beaver has the set or str8, he could be on a FD as well, or maybe 2P (Is his calling range that wide?). This is a hard one. You r not in bad shape with your stack if you did fold. It would be nice to have some read on beaver. What are your thoughts on his range? Could you isolate him with an all in? Any read on fourcheap and time of show? Will they fold to two aggressive plays?

fwiw, I think AA or KK would re raise (me naively thinking they do what I would do...) I push here and try to isolate beaver..........

 

[dwolfg]

fold. it is the second level and you are 100 bb deep. No need to risk this much this early with only one pair.

 

[killingbird]

hard for me to ever find a fold here. His shove does not scream strength to me...looks more like a draw and we have blockers to his straight draws and we got outs if we are behind. Not saying folding is terrible, but I think I get it in.

 

[BigBelle]

I fold. I don't want to be all in an even money or worse situation this early in the tourney. If he has an over pair or a set, you are a big underdog. If he has A-x of spades you are in a coin flip. Wait for a better spot to put that many chips at risk.

 

[Dwilius]

...moved to tournament hand analysis subforum, and edited title as an example.

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/tou...-51/hand-analysis-read-before-posting-174517/

 

[tomh7795]

Easy fold. You don't have to gamble this stage of tourney espcially when 100bb deep

 

[cjatud2012]

I think we have to call, but I'm not very happy about it, since although we're probably ahead, it's typically not by much. We could be way behind, but I'd expect an overpair to 3-bet pre, and sets/straights to raise a more normal amount. So I'd call, no fistpump.

Also, c-bet smaller on this flop imo.

 

[tomh7795]

I think we have to call, but I'm not very happy about it, since although we're probably ahead, it's typically not by much. We could be way behind, but I'd expect an overpair to 3-bet pre, and sets/straights to raise a more normal amount. So I'd call, no fistpump.

Also, c-bet smaller on this flop imo.

I don't see how calling here is a good play? Tell me how it is. We are ahead of his range but as it says in top mtt books you shouldn't really call all in with 1 pair espically on a board like that. If we fold we're in decent shape. I don't see how calling is correct.

Any mtt playing players could help me here pls.

obv cbet smaller. I'm cool with dat move

 

[cjatud2012]

We can call because we're a favorite against his range?


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.664% 53.78% 00.88% 408936 6685.50 { JJ }
Hand 1: 45.336% 44.46% 00.88% 338013 6685.50 { 77+, AsKs, AQs-A2s, J8s, T8s, 98s, 86s+, T8o, 98o, 86o+ }

I tried to make adjustments for combo draws, etc., but really, if we're a favorite and our decision caps the action, we really have no choice... We have to call. Besides, I think we only need like 40% equity to make it a +cEV call, or something close to that, someone else can do the math.

 

[tomh7795]

i may be saying this because i play mainly sngs but early on i don't like to gamble. Not even 55-45 unless short stacked. I don't like calling for pretty much all my chips here with at best a very small favourite. I say fold and wait for a better spot. Just my opinion and i know you'll bring maths into it now but i would fold and find a better spot. Calling might be a better play but i just gave my 2 cents.

I understand we're ahead of his range but not a huge fav over his range

 

[cjatud2012]

I don't like these spots either, I'd feel better if my tourney life weren't on the line and we're not sure we're aheas, but it's probably most correct to call. At least that's what I took away from that thread with AK a little while back.

 

[outkasts]

KK any more replys??? imma post up the rest of the hand in a day or so..

 

[fletchdad]

Just wanna say, I either push all in or fold here, dont like calling as it gives better incentive for limper and SB to also call, pushing will probably(??) chase them out, and I am folding a multiway here (which you will have a hard time doing if u call and get 2 more callers...), so avoiding that is priority if at all possible.

 

[Poker Orifice]

Just wanna say, I either push all in or fold here, dont like calling as it gives better incentive for limper and SB to also call, pushing will probably(??) chase them out, and I am folding a multiway here (which you will have a hard time doing if u call and get 2 more callers...), so avoiding that is priority if at all possible.

Not sure what you're referring to (& had difficulty making sense of your first post on this). HERO will be last to act (I'm assuming... although others haven't been included in initial HH post, I'm assuming it's been folded back to HERO and they're facing a decision).

What range of hands do we put villain on (w/o reads) who'd be calling an EP rs in EP themselves in early levels w deepstacks,.. a hand not big enough to raise with (unless by some chance (very unlikely) they flatted w big pp, in hopes of someone squeezing.. but really doubt it). Likely holdings (imo) would be mid pp's, perhaps AQ, AJ, or maybe even AXs (although less likely but you never know in early levels of a $26donkament). With that said, what range of hands would come over the top & shove allin in a multiway pot where EP has cbet the flop? Most likely a set on a 2-tone flop.... less likely AQs drawing to NFD w 2 overs. One of which you're way behind, the other close.... but marginally behind.

Also factoring in... what does villain put HERO on to shove allin here? (maybe JJ,QQ,KK,AA ?? or AsKs, AsQs..but does HERO lead out with NFD here or perhaps check-raises, depending upon the action ahead of them.

I grudgingly fold, feeling I'm behind & wait for another spot.