$.25 NLHE MTT: Hands seemed too good fold

[tzuriel]

Should I have folded to the 3bet? Or maybe on the Turn when I miss my draw. I feel like I should have folded here and got a little sticky instead. I think I was getting the right odds, though.


Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem $0.25+$0.02 (6000.00BB)
EP ($199096)
MP ($108199)
HERO ($461370)
CO ($37892)
BTN ($229083)
SB ($345195)
BB ($80416)
UTG ($356204)

Dealt to Hero: Q♠ J♣

UTG Folds, EP Folds, MP Folds, HERO Raises To $15800, CO Folds, BTN Raises To $36800, SB Folds, BB Folds, HERO Calls $21000

Hero SPR on Flop: [2.2 effective]
Flop ($87400): T♥ A♣ 9♦
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $60306 (Rem. Stack: $131977), HERO Calls $60306 (Rem. Stack: $364264)

Turn ($208012): T♥ A♣ 9♦ Q♦
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $131977 (allin), HERO Calls $131977 (Rem. Stack: $232287)

River ($471966): T♥ A♣ 9♦ Q♦ 6♥

Spoiler

BTN shows: Q♥ A♦

BTN wins: $471966

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Opening QJo from HJ is fine, and when he 3-bet this small, you are putting in 21k to win 87,4k, so you only need to realise 24% equity to break even. You are out of position though, and QJo is one of the worst possible hands to defend against a 3-bet with because of domination issues. So folding would not be crazy here, but its close, and calling cant be a major mistake.

Flop
You flop an OESD, but when he bet this large in a 3-bet pot, it really scream value to me, and obviously this board is all over his range. So I think, there is very minimal fold equity here if any at all, and having a little more than 2 times the pot left, I dont think, check-jamming is a profitable option. I think, you are pretty much always getting snapped off by top pair and sets, and then you are getting it in with around 30% equity needing 40% to just break even in chip EV.

The next option is to call and consider it a 1-card draw, since he is probably always going to jam the turn, if we are correct in assuming, that there are zero bluffs in his range. The odds of turning a straight is 8/47 = 17%, and if we assume, that he always pays off, which is probably true, you need to hit it 60/340 = 17,6% of the time. This however ignores his redraw equity, like when you hit a K on the turn, and he hit another K or an A on the river to make a boat with AK.

So calling to see a single card is a losing play even without considering ICM, if there are no bluffs in his range. And I actually think, thats a fair assumption given the stakes and his betzing. So I think, continuing on there is a small mistake. Its rare, that we should just straight out fold an 8 out draw on the flop, especially when all outs are to the nuts. But I think, this is one of those rare cases, because he bet so large and have so little behind, and we an basically assume, that he always has fat value.

Turn
Now its a simple math based decision, and the Q looks like a better card for you, than it actually was. The issue is, that this card does not give you 5 more outs against the range of hands, we should put him on, which are sets and something like AT-AK. Against sets and AQ you picked up no additional outs at all, and against AK, AJ and AT you only picked up 2 additional outs to win with trip Q´s. I plugged it into Equilap, and you actually only had 18,6% equity and needed 28% to just break even in chip EV. So while the flop call was at least close, this was a fairly massivly loosing call, if again we can assume zero bluffs in this guys range.

 

[tzuriel]

Thank you for the expert analysis. I need to do some math/odds work.

 

[rabman50]

Great analysis by fundiver199. Some other things to think about is the player type. What hands are they 3-betting. Granted the three bet was just a click back min raise but you still have to put him on a very strong range. The open with QJo is fine but I don't like calling the 3-bet. QJ suited is a call but never the off suit variety.