$.25 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: Bet bigger to protect?

T

tzuriel

Rock Star
Joined
Feb 5, 2021
Total posts
404
Awards
1
US
I bet small on the flop because I wanted to keep these players in the hand. Was that a mistake? After seeing villain's hand, he probably wouldn't fold to any bet on the flop And probably even I shoved the turn he is calling, but that is results oriented. I thought my sizing on this was okay.

Player was fairly loose and had showed down a variety of holdings. I am probably just losing on this hand against him every time. Not sure I am good enough to fold
NL Holdem $0.25+$0.02 (80.00BB)
HERO ($31703)
CO ($14652)
BTN ($3393)
SB ($7358)
BB ($9511)
UTG ($9970)
EP ($10261)
MP ($12101)

Dealt to Hero: Q K

UTG Folds, EP Folds, MP Folds, HERO Raises To $210, CO Calls $200, BTN Calls $200, SB Folds, BB Folds

Hero SPR on Flop: [3.98 effective]
Flop ($800): T 9 J
HERO Bets $200 (Rem. Stack: $31293), CO Calls $200 (Rem. Stack: $14242), BTN Calls $200 (Rem. Stack: $2983)

Turn ($1400): T 9 J 6
HERO Bets $630 (Rem. Stack: $30663), CO Calls $630 (Rem. Stack: $13612), BTN Calls $630 (Rem. Stack: $2353)

River ($3290): T 9 J 6 7
HERO Bets $1481 (Rem. Stack: $29182), CO Raises To $13612 (allin), BTN Folds, HERO Calls $12131 (Rem. Stack: $17051)

CO shows: 4 A

CO wins: $30514
 
Last edited:
S

Sidetracked

Legend
Joined
Jun 30, 2016
Total posts
1,294
Awards
2
That flop is very dynamic/wet. I would definitely bet bigger on the flop and turn, and then re-evaluate the river.

Villain may be the kind of player who will just NEVER fold a flush draw, in which case you were going to lose the hand anyway.
 
F

fundiver199

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
Jun 3, 2019
Total posts
10,276
Awards
1
I would definitely bet bigger on the flop and turn. But the purpose is not to make people fold a flush draw. The purpose is to get more value, when you have the nuts. Lots of hands can easily call bigger bets here. Sets, two pair, pair+draw, even a naked OESD like AQ. And of course a flushdraw.

I also really dont like your river call. Before pressing "call" here, you need to stop and think about, what kind of hands, he would jam now. One little trick, that has sometimes helped me, is to get rid of the habit of instacalling in big spots like this. Its so easy to go "oh yeah I have a straight, I call". Its our instinctive reaction, because all the way through the hand our thought process was, we have the best hand, and we are betting for value.

But if you force yourself to let your time run out, and ideally even dig into the time bank (this is after all, what its for), then you give the logical part of your brain a chance to take over. Think about how the hand played out and put him on a range. Would he do this with the same hand as yours? No. With an 8, that rivered the low straight? No. With AQ as a bluff? Maybe but probably not. A flush? Absolutely. This is actually a really simple hand to analyse, because apart from a sporadic bluff, his range is a flush and thats it. He is also giving you a terrible price, so if you think logically about it, this is actually a fairly easy bet-fold.
 
T

tzuriel

Rock Star
Joined
Feb 5, 2021
Total posts
404
Awards
1
US
I would definitely bet bigger on the flop and turn. But the purpose is not to make people fold a flush draw. The purpose is to get more value, when you have the nuts. Lots of hands can easily call bigger bets here. Sets, two pair, pair+draw, even a naked OESD like AQ. And of course a flushdraw.

I also really dont like your river call. Before pressing "call" here, you need to stop and think about, what kind of hands, he would jam now. One little trick, that has sometimes helped me, is to get rid of the habit of instacalling in big spots like this. Its so easy to go "oh yeah I have a straight, I call". Its our instinctive reaction, because all the way through the hand our thought process was, we have the best hand, and we are betting for value.

But if you force yourself to let your time run out, and ideally even dig into the time bank (this is after all, what its for), then you give the logical part of your brain a chance to take over. Think about how the hand played out and put him on a range. Would he do this with the same hand as yours? No. With an 8, that rivered the low straight? No. With AQ as a bluff? Maybe but probably not. A flush? Absolutely. This is actually a really simple hand to analyse, because apart from a sporadic bluff, his range is a flush and thats it. He is also giving you a terrible price, so if you think logically about it, this is actually a fairly easy bet-fold.


Of course you are correct and I really like this advice. I did think about it but not long enough, I'm sure. This is one of those moments to learn from. Thanks for taking the time to respond
 
F

fundiver199

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
Jun 3, 2019
Total posts
10,276
Awards
1
By the way the flip side of this is, that the overbet jam is actually a really cool play by him. Nathan Villiams AKA Blackrain79 talk quite a bit about this in his books and videos. You are far from the only person, who have difficulty folding hands above a certain nominal strenght. And for this reason overbetting full houses on a flushy board or flushes on a straighty board for value is a great play in general in soft games.

Another good advice is to always think ahead in a poker hand. Before you bet the river, you should already have noticed, that you no longer hold the nuts, and have considered, how you are going to react to a raise. There is no reason to let the raise surprice you and go "oh crab what now". And maybe here the answer would be call a small raise but fold to a jam. This hand is 146BB deep, which is quite unusual for a tournament hand, so you really need something very strong to get it in.
 
B

Badday94

Rock Star
Joined
Jan 31, 2021
Total posts
243
In my opinion the bet on the flop was indeed a bit small but that's how I also like to bet since there is a flush draw and I don't want to make the pot too big in case someone hits it on the turn, but on the turn I would have bet big, somewhere around pot size or even more. Calling to such a big bet chasing the flush on the river would be pretty crazy, maybe he would have if you say he was so loose, it happened to me in the cc freeroll the other day. I had pocket 7's, made a 3x bb bet preflop, I made the trips on the flop but there was a flush draw and a king, so I said if he has a king or a flush draw, I will make it expensive for him. I made a pot size bet on the flop, he called, then a bigger than pot size bet on the turn, he called again, didn't make the flush and still called to my all in on the river. He had a pair of kings with some low kicker and flush draw. Could have easily turned out bad for me against such a loose player, but it didn't happen and at least I managed to squeeze every chip possible out of him. In your case, if he didn't make his flush on the river, you would have won so little with such a big hand, and if he still called you to the big turn bet, then after another heart on river, the fold would have been even easier for you and you wouldn't have lost all those chips.
 
K

kkonicke

Rock Star
Joined
Jan 26, 2019
Total posts
416
I can understand a somewhat smaller flop bet to control pot size with the flush draw out there, but even still I think your bet is small. If you're style is a smaller bet, I would at least go 40% here...otherwise you're giving too good of odds for guys with even the worst draws to continue. I personally prefer a bigger bet on the flop to hopefully press the action against hands like QJ/QT, flush draws, 2 pair, 87, etc. You're beating a lot of other very good hands and are looking to get it allin. I would probably go 2/3 here. On the turn I'm 100% upping the bet size. You bet roughly 40%, I personally would go to a minimum of 90% here and might even full pot or overbet. You want to give flush draws bad odds to call, and again you want to get more chips in against other very strong hands that you beat like QJ, 87, 2 pair, etc.

The river I don't think is quite as straight-forward of a fold as others are saying, at least in my opinion. The 7 comes off showing a straight. Based on your bet sizes, hands like J8, T8, A8 all can easily continue...especially if they happen to be of spades. This is also a $0.25 tournament, I could easily see players in that tournament assuming they are best with the straight and shipping. Based on your bets, I'm probably going to call this one. Now if you made bigger bets and especially the big turn bet...all those hands with an 8 are probably folding turn unless they are of spades. If the flush draw did continue, I think I would be more inclined to fold river as there are many less 8x that can see the river.
 
3

300HPGOD

Legend
Joined
Feb 13, 2018
Total posts
1,172
Awards
10
I was at your table when this happened so I know the dynamics of the table and the tournament. This is a micro tournament and a tournament where people rebuy a lot as you know and have seen so in this case as with most cases in this tournament you have to be betting your good hands for value as people just dont fold and have the mentality of "well if Im wrong I just rebuy for 27 cents" so bet your good hands strongly in this tournament.

Others make good points that even without the overly call mentality of opponents in this tournament there are a lot of hands that will continue on the flop like any 2 hearts, Qx, 8x, two pair hands, and sets are possible too that overcalled (more likely 99 than JJ but possible). With that being said there is no reason to then bet small as we know people can have many hands they would continue with plus the fact many call in this tourney (this hand was also early meaning people are more willing to float and stick around with rebuys in their back pocket).

The turn bet is too small as well since you already bet small on the flop so you need to get value. The turn card brings in more draws that will call as well so betting large here is the way to go, again especially for this tourney. When you bet the size you did you give button (assuming CO calls) better than 4 to 1 to call their potential flush draw even though I know it is CO that wound up having it you dont want to give any opponent the correct odds to call.

The river is one that you need to think about and come to the conclusion that it is a pretty easy fold. You gave them the odds to come along all hand and then they got there on the river. Many opponents bet huge on the river in this tournament since they know villains cant find the fold button (maybe as mentioned it could be 8x but I really doubt it and watching the hand firsthand as it happened in real time I never thought villain had 8x here). It is also worth noting that you shot out of a cannon to start this tournament as you had a big stack to start this hand and the structure of this tournament is quite nice and slow. You should fold here knowing you are likely beat and knowing you have the huge stack early with a great structure behind you. Plenty of spots in this tournament to chip up.

As a side note you cant let hands like this tilt you either when you call and are wrong. If I remember right you got into a big hand a few hands later that you should have been able to fold out when you had top pair and someone jammed on you with two pair. When you make a mistake just forget it the best you can and move on. It takes practice but you can do it in game. Ive seen you play and you can win at this tournament so keep in mind the villains you play against in this tourney and bet for value and you should be fine.
 
T

tzuriel

Rock Star
Joined
Feb 5, 2021
Total posts
404
Awards
1
US
I was at your table when this happened so I know the dynamics of the table and the tournament. This is a micro tournament and a tournament where people rebuy a lot as you know and have seen so in this case as with most cases in this tournament you have to be betting your good hands for value as people just dont fold and have the mentality of "well if Im wrong I just rebuy for 27 cents" so bet your good hands strongly in this tournament.

Others make good points that even without the overly call mentality of opponents in this tournament there are a lot of hands that will continue on the flop like any 2 hearts, Qx, 8x, two pair hands, and sets are possible too that overcalled (more likely 99 than JJ but possible). With that being said there is no reason to then bet small as we know people can have many hands they would continue with plus the fact many call in this tourney (this hand was also early meaning people are more willing to float and stick around with rebuys in their back pocket).

The turn bet is too small as well since you already bet small on the flop so you need to get value. The turn card brings in more draws that will call as well so betting large here is the way to go, again especially for this tourney. When you bet the size you did you give button (assuming CO calls) better than 4 to 1 to call their potential flush draw even though I know it is CO that wound up having it you dont want to give any opponent the correct odds to call.

The river is one that you need to think about and come to the conclusion that it is a pretty easy fold. You gave them the odds to come along all hand and then they got there on the river. Many opponents bet huge on the river in this tournament since they know villains cant find the fold button (maybe as mentioned it could be 8x but I really doubt it and watching the hand firsthand as it happened in real time I never thought villain had 8x here). It is also worth noting that you shot out of a cannon to start this tournament as you had a big stack to start this hand and the structure of this tournament is quite nice and slow. You should fold here knowing you are likely beat and knowing you have the huge stack early with a great structure behind you. Plenty of spots in this tournament to chip up.

As a side note you cant let hands like this tilt you either when you call and are wrong. If I remember right you got into a big hand a few hands later that you should have been able to fold out when you had top pair and someone jammed on you with two pair. When you make a mistake just forget it the best you can and move on. It takes practice but you can do it in game. Ive seen you play and you can win at this tournament so keep in mind the villains you play against in this tourney and bet for value and you should be fine.


This is awesome especially from someone who was at the table. I absolutely remember you. I really appreciate your encouragement and you are 100% correct. This should have been an easy fold no matter what and even more so considering my stack and the structure.

I have learned a lot from this hand, your comments, and everyone else's. Thank you so much! :):)

The fold button is the one with the word FOLD on it, right? ;)
 
F

fundiver199

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
Jun 3, 2019
Total posts
10,276
Awards
1
The river I don't think is quite as straight-forward of a fold as others are saying, at least in my opinion. The 7 comes off showing a straight. Based on your bet sizes, hands like J8, T8, A8 all can easily continue...especially if they happen to be of spades. This is also a $0.25 tournament, I could easily see players in that tournament assuming they are best with the straight and shipping.

Jamming an 8 here as an overbet would be an absolutely terrible play, because all worse hands will fold and only better hands call. I guess, its possible, the opponent is actually this bad, but I will say, its a low probability event, unless we have seen him do a lot of crazy shit in previous hands.

Its certainly not the common tendency in the micros in my opinion, that people are passive until the river and then wildly overplay their hand. One of the slogans from Nathan Villiams AKA Blackrain79 books is "a raise on the turn is usually the nuts, a raise on the river is always the nuts". This is based on him playing almost 10 million hands in the micros. Mostly cash games, but this hand is so deep, its essentially the same thing as a cash game.

So I would certainly not want to overcall in this situation. And when the opponent is risking 3 times the size of the pot, our MDF (Minimum Defence Frequenzy) is only 25%. So off the hands, which we raise preflop and then bet all 3 streets on this runout, we are only supposed to call with 25%.

Is KQ in the top 25% of our range? I dont think so. We are not opening Q8 preflop, and we should not be building the pot on the flop and turn with 8X, because its such a bad draw. We should however be building with some flushdraws, and of course we should be betting KQ for value. On the flop and turn we might also be betting some sets and two pair for value, but those hands should check the river, because the river card was absolutely terrible for them.

So our range for betting the river is probably something like flushes, KQ and then some bluffs, if we are trying to be balanced. The bluffs might be hands like AQ or AK, which were drawing to the nuts but bricked. I am not going to make an exact calculation, because I dont know, how Hero construct his range. But its quite possible, that Hero might even be supposed to fold some of his worst flushes to avoid being a calling station and paying off.

And even if the calculation show, that Hero has to call some KQ, he should clearly select those, that block the flush. KQ with no flush blocker has to be a fairly trivial fold to this raise size, weather we are trying to play a GTO style of poker or relying on population reads :)
 
FernA9ndo

FernA9ndo

Rock Star
Joined
Nov 1, 2018
Total posts
361
He has more value hands that will profit in all in with this situation than bluffs. I thought myself and to fold was better than to call because there are a lot of flush possibilities.
 
Luvepoker

Luvepoker

Lost in the twilight zone
Community Guide
Joined
Feb 21, 2018
Total posts
3,594
Awards
21
US
With this type of flop We have the nuts and I want to stack them. this is super wet flop but any player with a set 2 pair or flush draw is going to call this flop. You also may get calls from I paid and a draw here. With all these options there is no reason to bet small here to keep someone in. All you were doing was giving ineradicable odds to the draws and any one with A4 hearts is going to call you here so why no bet for value why you can. At least then you can put him on a range of hands. You may get a call one time from AK or pocket 3's but you will never get more that type of holding. I would say bet stronger on the flop and turn.

As for the river. You are OOP and a flush draw hit. The way its played he is on a draw or afraid hes 2 pair or set is in trouble. Betting on this river If i was him I would have put you on the straight and milking me along or a set / 2 pair. and love his play. It just looked possible you would pay him off. If I were in your spot I would have not bet the river OOP. I would rather call a bet from him and not be in a bet shove situation. By checking he may of jamed or bet enough thinking of trying to get a call from a much weaker hand. If he jammed it would have stunk but if he bet 1/2 pot you would have lost so much less.
 
Al fred

Al fred

Rock Star
Joined
Feb 20, 2021
Total posts
267
Awards
1
AZ
In that flop, betting bigger is preferred against two opponents whilst the board is dangerous eventhough you hit best straight. Flush draw, sets or any two pairs would be still call your bets. Because itsn't good idea playing slow or setting trap in this flop straights, even against two callers. I guess it's overbet on riverr right? I like that actually, checking would be weak play and you'd have no idea about what he has if he jam right back. Sometimes it's based on each players, you might know him as bluffer but in that position between you and button, he played a hand exactly as he drawing. Jamming riverr out of position against agressor who overbets the pot - is sign of nuts - an ace high flush. Because even though he do play against you, he'd still have not much information about button. I don't see shove for lower straights, sets or pairs there. Sometimes not even for lower flushes because you might also have flush based on the way you played a hand. So I believe this kind of details helps much to put your opponent into something. Fold would be nice play, although it's a bit hard.
 
Top