$.25 NLHE MTT: Calling w/88 to a tight player's PF shove

[tzuriel]

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD and Database Software

Level 12 with 3 rebuy levels left.

Min raise with 88 from MP, pretty standard. CO raises and my plan is to jam if it folds around but the seemingly tight BTN (VPIP 20 over 37 hands small sample but it points to something) beats me into the pot. I thought about it for a moment and then folded waiting for a better spot to come later.

Thoughts?

I was doing really well in this tournament until I jammed A7o from the SB & got called by the BB's A5o and a 5 came on the flop. But thanks to all of you in the forums here, my game has really improved.

NL Holdem $0.25+$0.02 (1000.00BB)
SB ($21436)
BB ($13586)
HERO ($59459)
HJ ($19900)
CO ($19660)
BTN ($19024)

Dealt to Hero: 8♥ 8♣

HERO Raises To $2100, HJ Folds, CO Raises To $3100, BTN Raises To $19024 (allin), SB Folds, BB Folds, HERO Folds, CO Folds

Spoiler

BTN wins: $10100

 

[fundiver199]

I think, this one is close. It largely depends on, what we think about that min 3-bet from CO, and what we think, BTN thinks of it. If its likely to be a misclick or a whale goofing around with silly nonsense, then there is a lot of dead chips in the pot for BTN to attack, and we should probably defend with 88. If on the other side we think, there is a decent chance, CO is sizing like this, because he have aces, then obviously we should fold and look for a better spot.

 

[liuouhgkres]

It's a straightforward fold, especially since BTN is not known agro player. At low stakes players very rarely 4bet bluff, so when you see 4 bet you can continue with a very tight range. BTN might have range like this: AKo, AQs+, KQs(25%), 88+. You are in terrible(32%) shape against that range.

 

[fundiver199]

It's a straightforward fold, especially since BTN is not known agro player. At low stakes players very rarely 4bet bluff, so when you see 4 bet you can continue with a very tight range. BTN might have range like this: AKo, AQs+, KQs(25%), 88+. You are in terrible(32%) shape against that range.

While technically a 4-bet, when CO has only min-clicked, I would consider this more like a 3-bet squeeze play from BTN. But that being said you do have a point. Unless we think, BTN is capable of jamming in his 20BB somewhat light, we are not getting the right odds to call off with 88, and we also need to worry about, what CO has.

Especially in a soft tournament there is also something to be said for avoiding high variance spots in general. We dont need to be flipping for 18BB with 88 against AK or AQ, if there is a good chance, we can get our chips in postflop is situations, where we might have 65-80% equity rather than just 50-55%.

 

[Sidetracked]

Without very specific reads on the players, I am not very keen about getting 88 all in preflop for almost 20 BB effective stacks.

 

[kkonicke]

I think as played, I'm folding this one. Too much risk when best case scenario we are 55/45. I just think too often one of the players has a bigger pair here. I don't discount the jam as much as fundiver seems to. I don't think he'd make this play very light. I definitely don't think there are any scenarios aside from 55/45 or 20/80.

 

[fundiver199]

I definitely don't think there are any scenarios aside from 55/45 or 20/80.

There should be, if the opponent is jamming the range, he is supposed to jam, because then he should also have some hands like slightly smaller pairs and suited wheel aces in his range, maybe even all suited aces. Of course we can assume, that everyone is being to nitty in a 25c MTT, and then we can adjust by folding to much, and that might or might not be a good adjustment.

With that being said I plugged the scenario into ICMizer with the small twist, that I let CO call rather than min 3-bet. This is nessesary to get a result, because ICMizer can not handle that much action, and god knows what kind of range that min-click represents anyway. ICMizer does have 88 as a call then, but it barely makes us money, so folding is certainly not crazy.

 

[Badday94]

In this situation I believe you made the right call. For 10k it would have been worth a shot, but for 20k it's too much of a risk against a tight player who most likely has a better pocket pair than yours. Long term this is the right call, otherwise you end up losing more than you're winning