$.25 NLHE MTT: Calling 30bbs shove from BTN vs HJ with TT

tewwa94

tewwa94

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I don't think is that bad tho, but I don't know the specific maths to "know" that. V is on the tight side, which makes me think (s)he might want to avoid playing post flop with hands like 88-99, AQ, I think hands like JJ+ would be a raise instead of raw shove. thoughts?

pokerstars - 25/50 Ante 6 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

Hero (BTN): 2,297 (45.9 bb)
SB: 2,037 (40.7 bb)
BB: 1,637 (32.7 bb)
UTG: 6,199 (124 bb)
UTG+1: 635 (12.7 bb)
MP: 1,866 (37.3 bb)
MP+1: 1,458 (29.2 bb)
CO: 2,844 (56.9 bb)

8 players post ante of 6, SB posts 25, BB posts 50

Pre Flop: (pot: 123) Hero has :10s4: :10c4:
3 folds, MP+1 raises to 1,452 and is all-in, fold, Hero raises to 2,291 and is all-in, 2 folds

Flop: (3,027, 2 players) :3c4: :ac4: :7d4:

Turn: (3,027, 2 players) :qh4:

River: (3,027, 2 players) :jc4:

Results: 3,027 pot (0 rake)
Final Board: :3c4: :ac4: :7d4: :qh4: :jc4:

MP+1 shows :ad4: :ks4:: (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 43%, Flop 87%, Turn 95%)

Hero shows :10s4: :10c4:: (One Pair, Tens)
(Pre 57%, Flop 13%, Turn 5%)

MP+1 wins 3,027
 
S

ssbn743

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I don't think is that bad tho, but I don't know the specific maths to "know" that. V is on the tight side, which makes me think (s)he might want to avoid playing post flop with hands like 88-99, AQ, I think hands like JJ+ would be a raise instead of raw shove. thoughts?

PokerStars - 25/50 Ante 6 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

Hero (BTN): 2,297 (45.9 bb)
SB: 2,037 (40.7 bb)
BB: 1,637 (32.7 bb)
UTG: 6,199 (124 bb)
UTG+1: 635 (12.7 bb)
MP: 1,866 (37.3 bb)
MP+1: 1,458 (29.2 bb)
CO: 2,844 (56.9 bb)

8 players post ante of 6, SB posts 25, BB posts 50

Pre Flop: (pot: 123) Hero has :10s4: :10c4:
3 folds, MP+1 raises to 1,452 and is all-in, fold, Hero raises to 2,291 and is all-in, 2 folds

Flop: (3,027, 2 players) :3c4: :ac4: :7d4:

Turn: (3,027, 2 players) :qh4:

River: (3,027, 2 players) :jc4:

Results: 3,027 pot (0 rake)
Final Board: :3c4: :ac4: :7d4: :qh4: :jc4:

MP+1 shows :ad4: :ks4:: (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 43%, Flop 87%, Turn 95%)

Hero shows :10s4: :10c4:: (One Pair, Tens)
(Pre 57%, Flop 13%, Turn 5%)

MP+1 wins 3,027


Well first, I'm finding it hard to believe that villain is tight after she just open rips 30BB's. Maybe you've seen some other hands with her or something, but based on this hand, she's a maniac.

That said, this is a standard re-shove all day long, don't beat yourself up about it.

The math is below:

Assuming she is tight, raises JJ+, and jams the weaker than made stuff:
99-77,AJs+,KQs,JTs,T9s,AQo+

Against said range, we're way on +EV side (see spreadsheet below)

If we can add some premiums into her range, hopefully for balance:
77+,AJs+,KQs,JTs,T9s,AQo+

Against this range, we're much closer to neutral (see spreadsheet below), but still on the green side.

Also, this is a tournament - so regardless, we can't fold here - take this all day long.
 

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300HPGOD

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I don't think this is a call. I don't get the tightness that you bring up as tight players play tight ranges so they would never be open jamming 30BBs with 88,99 or anything remotely like it. If the player truely is a tight player than their range for doing this would be QQ+. If they are more of a loose player as a play like this would invoke than I think a range of 99+ and A10+ would be a decent way to range them.

The problem is, using even the loose range we are not in great shape as we are flipping (to the good, something like 56-44) or we are being beat by bigger pairs. yes, you can come up with individual hands that they might do this with that you beat vastly like A10 and 99 but that is a small part of their range. Even against a hand that is towards the bottom of their range like AJo we are not killing it.

You also have to factor in that if you lose you are going to cut your stack down to playing push/fold. While that is not a disastrous thing we may have a skill advantage against the others players and dont want to get into flips for 2/3rds our stack. I like folding here with the thought that I am flipping a lot, crushed some of the time, and only crushing them a very small amount of the time. I have confidence in my skill vs the field I would look for other opportunities.
 
Evan Jarvis

Evan Jarvis

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I don't think is that bad tho, but I don't know the specific maths to "know" that. V is on the tight side, which makes me think (s)he might want to avoid playing post flop with hands like 88-99, AQ, I think hands like JJ+ would be a raise instead of raw shove. thoughts?

PokerStars - 25/50 Ante 6 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

Hero (BTN): 2,297 (45.9 bb)
SB: 2,037 (40.7 bb)
BB: 1,637 (32.7 bb)
UTG: 6,199 (124 bb)
UTG+1: 635 (12.7 bb)
MP: 1,866 (37.3 bb)
MP+1: 1,458 (29.2 bb)
CO: 2,844 (56.9 bb)

8 players post ante of 6, SB posts 25, BB posts 50

Pre Flop: (pot: 123) Hero has :10s4: :10c4:
3 folds, MP+1 raises to 1,452 and is all-in, fold, Hero raises to 2,291 and is all-in, 2 folds

Flop: (3,027, 2 players) :3c4: :ac4: :7d4:

Turn: (3,027, 2 players) :qh4:

River: (3,027, 2 players) :jc4:

Results: 3,027 pot (0 rake)
Final Board: :3c4: :ac4: :7d4: :qh4: :jc4:

MP+1 shows :ad4: :ks4:: (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 43%, Flop 87%, Turn 95%)

Hero shows :10s4: :10c4:: (One Pair, Tens)
(Pre 57%, Flop 13%, Turn 5%)

MP+1 wins 3,027

Definitely a fine call in a $0.25 MTT, people will be shoving many pairs in this spot.

Also usually people raise smaller with AA and KK so you can take out the top of range

If you're vs QQ JJ 99 88 AK you're doing fine and if you add in AQ or any other pairs you're doing great!

Nice call, unlucky runout
 
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