This is a discussion on $25 NLHE MTT Bounty: Early Stage $25 BB w/JJ within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Hand Analysis section; Should this have been a fold on the river?
GGPoker, Hold'em No Limit - 30/60 (8 ante) - 8 players
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Preflop is pretty standard, and the only thing up for debate is the open sizing. But lets leave that for another day. I would certainly not fold JJ to a normal 3-bet, and I also dont want to 4-bet this deep, and even less so when someone have cold called the 3-bet out of position. This is actually a very strong action, so alarm bells should be going off a little bit, and I am a lot more worried about BB than MP, unless BB is just a fish calling with whatever, because he have no idea, whats going on.
You flopped a set, but this board is super wet, and the fact AQ flopped a straight, is huge, especially in a 3-bet pot. Both opponents ranges are quite narrow, but they can both have all 16 combos of AQ, so this really matter, and I am not looking to stack off a set here. I see no reason to donk into the preflop raiser, so checking is very normal and standard.
Now a flush is also possible, and big blind lead for a small size. I dont think, we need to worry so much about MP any longer, because if he flopped a straight, a set or even a flushdraw, he would most likely have bet the flop. So he probably have some medium strong hand like AA or AK, which we beat, or he have absolutely nothing, and he is just giving up.
Its very difficult to not be results oriented, when you have showed the results, but with MP essentially out of the hand and BB using this blocker sizing, I think, there is a strong case to raise now for value and protection. We probably have the best hand, and we really dont want to see the river bring a 1-liner to either a straight or flush. And even if we are behind to a flush or straight, we have 10 outs to boat up, so we can even call a 3-bet, unless its very large.
The 1-liner did come, and now SB puts in a much larger bet. QX is certainly a huge part of his range, that play this way, so answering your question, yes I would fold now. Of course he will sometimes be bluffing, but I dont think, this is a profitable call in the long run. Again it is difficult to not be results oriented, when you show his hand, but I am really trying my best
Pre flop 2.5x is fine and the sizing I would choose. I will say that any sizing below that is probably too small given the depth of stacks but anything 2.5x to even 3.5x is fine here.
On the flop you should be checking as you did to the raiser. Leading here is fine against certain opponents that wont believe you when you donk lead but it is usually better to just go ahead and check ad continue to disguise the weakness of your hand.
On the turn since the initial raiser checked I think we should be looking to be aggressive here. On top of that we have a strong hand with the set that does not want to see a 4th spade hit so I much prefer raising the blinds lead bet here. Checking is not good here given the sizing of the bet. If villain were to have bet here larger than checking is at least more okay but I think raising here is usually the better play no matter what the sizing is unless it is an unorthadoxingly large. calling allows both villains to draw to the flush for the correct price.
On the river when it comes 4 to a straight and the villain continues betting I see no reason for raising. Anything that is vulnerable will now fold and anything that beats us will just re raise. Its best to just call here as you did and take the pot if we are ahead and minimize loses if we are behind. Bad luck on the river that the straight got there but you should have priced those out on the turn.
No. A call is not required on the river. I don't like this passive line on three streets with a strong hand. But with such a bet, our villain most likely gets chips from us, so he most likely has a queen.
I think you played it fine. You could fold the river but calling doesn’t seem like a mistake. If a non spade turn comes, raising would be the play. With a third spade, raising seems a little risky imo.
re: Poker & $25 NLHE MTT Bounty: Early Stage $25 BB w/JJ
Hello, IMO we should always fold on the river when on the board lie a straight and flush together. In this situation are two hands that win with our set, flush and straight. Most of the times we will lose here with set of JJJ. I always fold here set of JJJ, because when on the board were cards that gave a straight, I many times saw a straight and many times I lost some chips. For me it doesn't worth to call the river when on the board are together straight and flush. GL