$22 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: $ : Reading Your Opponent with Hand Analyses

J

JRNorris95

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The best way to develop hand reading skills is by studying hand histories, blind yourself from your opponents cards, work through every possible hand in their range and remove unlikely hand possibilities after every betting round. Once you have improved your skill off hand histories, you can implement the theory into live play. Its important to identify what possible hands that you can rule out with a bet, and what size bet you need to make in order to do so.

Here is an example of one of my analyses:


I am holding Ac Ks in the small blind. The villain opens with a check on the Button. It folds around to me and I open with a moderate 3.5BB raise. The BB folds and the Button calls. Before even taking the flop into consideration I must eliminate any unlikely opponent hands from his range. If he had a premium pocket pair like AA, KK, JJ, QQ and maybe even TT, he likely would of either opened with a raise, or re-raised me. If he had a premium suited connector like AKs, KQs, QJs, he would of likely open raised, or re-raised me. This means that my opponents hands are likely composed of small pocket pairs, Ax, lower suited connectors, or any two T+ cards.

The flop comes Ad 7c Kd and the button checks to me.

Before taking anything else into consideration, I have to determine what hands of my opponent that I might lose to. This way I can either protect against them now by ruling them out, or be prepared to lay them down on the wrong turn/flop. Based off the opponents preflop range they could have pocket 7s. He could have a flush draw. Or he could have a gutshot.

At this point, I rule out pocket 7s because I think that he would of raised after the flop to protect against a flush draw and gutshot (unless he was trying to trap me).

If he has a flush draw he would think that he has 9 outs. He would think that his odds of hitting the flush draw is 34.92%. Only because I know my hand, I can calculate his actual odds to 36.26% (but I am determining his hand based off the odds that he knows)

If he has a gutshot he would think that he has 4 outs. He would think that his odds of hitting his gutshot is 15.72%. His actual odds would be 16.26% since I know my hand.

I need to force him to reveal more about his hand by betting. In order for him to call a bet, I determine that the following needs to be true: (Bet/Odds)<(Bet*Players+Pot)

I can rule out a flush draw to be a likely hand if he calls raise larger than 119% of the pot. I of course do not want to make that bet, as he would fold any weaker hands that I could get value from.

I cant just yet rule out a flushdraw with a gutshot, because he could potentially call any sized raise.

I can rule out a gutshot if he calls a raise larger than 23% of the pot. I do feel comfortable making a bet at least this size, so I go ahead and bet 40% of the pot.

The turn comes and the board shows Ad 7c Kd 2s

I can rule out pocket 2s, because he would not of called a 40% potsized bet post flop.

He would now think that his odds of hitting the flush draw is 19.56% and 26% if he has a flushdraw with a gutshot. This means that I can rule out a flush draw with a bet larger than 32% of the pot. I can rule out a flush draw with a gutshot with any bet larger than 54% of pot.

I bet 45% of the pot and he calls. The river comes and the board now shows Ad 7c Kd 2s 9s and my opponent opens with a roughly 40% raise.

I now can take his range, deduct all the hands I ruled out as likely, and determine the most probable hand combinations. He could have 7d 9d, 2d 9d, A7, K7, A2, A9, Ax, or 99. Or he could have missed his draw hand, and be bluffing in hopes that I missed mine (based on this player, I do not think he is).

In this situation I determine that the only probable hand that beats me is 99. I dont factor this be likely as I think he would of only called thus far with either a draw or a pair of K's and higher.

With all this information my best guess at my opponents hand were AQ, AJ, AT, A2, A7, or A9. Instead of placing a smaller reraise, I decided to shove. I determined that this player would probably be more likely to call a shove over a re raise because I could of missed a draw and be trying to bluff.

The opponent calls and he shows A2
 
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Haemophile

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how do you do this with the timer i find i don't have enough time to think it all through properly.

love the post though and thanks for showing how it is done in a straightforward way

although can you breakdown the formula and explain each section (bet/odds) is less than ( bet*players+pot) i undrstand bet is the size of bet to make is odds the pot odds or percentage chance down to the outs you have.
 
azforlife

azforlife

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Good point about the timer! I find myself more & more becoming more of a robot, in how my decisions are becoming a "fits-all" type of strategy when it comes to decision making! With regards to the equation, I think he's basically trying to say that he will make the call if the odds favor him over how much he has to call factoring in how many players are in the hand as well.
 
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paulw

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The best way to develop hand reading skills is by studying hand histories, blind yourself from your opponents cards, work through every possible hand in their range and remove unlikely hand possibilities after every betting round. Once you have improved your skill off hand histories, you can implement the theory into live play. Its important to identify what possible hands that you can rule out with a bet, and what size bet you need to make in order to do so.

Here is an example of one of my analyses:


I am holding Ac Ks in the small blind. The villain opens with a check on the Button. It folds around to me and I open with a moderate 3.5BB raise. The BB folds and the Button calls. Before even taking the flop into consideration I must eliminate any unlikely opponent hands from his range. If he had a premium pocket pair like AA, KK, JJ, QQ and maybe even TT, he likely would of either opened with a raise, or re-raised me. If he had a premium suited connector like AKs, KQs, QJs, he would of likely open raised, or re-raised me. This means that my opponents hands are likely composed of small pocket pairs, Ax, lower suited connectors, or any two T+ cards.

The flop comes Ad 7c Kd and the button checks to me.

Before taking anything else into consideration, I have to determine what hands of my opponent that I might lose to. This way I can either protect against them now by ruling them out, or be prepared to lay them down on the wrong turn/flop. Based off the opponents preflop range they could have pocket 7s. He could have a flush draw. Or he could have a gutshot.

At this point, I rule out pocket 7s because I think that he would of raised after the flop to protect against a flush draw and gutshot (unless he was trying to trap me).

If he has a flush draw he would think that he has 9 outs. He would think that his odds of hitting the flush draw is 34.92%. Only because I know my hand, I can calculate his actual odds to 36.26% (but I am determining his hand based off the odds that he knows)

If he has a gutshot he would think that he has 4 outs. He would think that his odds of hitting his gutshot is 15.72%. His actual odds would be 16.26% since I know my hand.

I need to force him to reveal more about his hand by betting. In order for him to call a bet, I determine that the following needs to be true: (Bet/Odds)<(Bet*Players+Pot)

I can rule out a flush draw to be a likely hand if he calls raise larger than 119% of the pot. I of course do not want to make that bet, as he would fold any weaker hands that I could get value from.

I cant just yet rule out a flushdraw with a gutshot, because he could potentially call any sized raise.

I can rule out a gutshot if he calls a raise larger than 23% of the pot. I do feel comfortable making a bet at least this size, so I go ahead and bet 40% of the pot.

The turn comes and the board shows Ad 7c Kd 2s

I can rule out pocket 2s, because he would not of called a 40% potsized bet post flop.

He would now think that his odds of hitting the flush draw is 19.56% and 26% if he has a flushdraw with a gutshot. This means that I can rule out a flush draw with a bet larger than 32% of the pot. I can rule out a flush draw with a gutshot with any bet larger than 54% of pot.

I bet 45% of the pot and he calls. The river comes and the board now shows Ad 7c Kd 2s 9s and my opponent opens with a roughly 40% raise.

I now can take his range, deduct all the hands I ruled out as likely, and determine the most probable hand combinations. He could have 7d 9d, 2d 9d, A7, K7, A2, A9, Ax, or 99. Or he could have missed his draw hand, and be bluffing in hopes that I missed mine (based on this player, I do not think he is).

In this situation I determine that the only probable hand that beats me is 99. I dont factor this be likely as I think he would of only called thus far with either a draw or a pair of K's and higher.

With all this information my best guess at my opponents hand were AQ, AJ, AT, A2, A7, or A9. Instead of placing a smaller reraise, I decided to shove. I determined that this player would probably be more likely to call a shove over a re raise because I could of missed a draw and be trying to bluff.

The opponent calls and he shows A2


Hi JR this is exactly the kind of info I joined cardschat to try and learn,at this moment in time this post goes way over my head but I want to learn every thing I can on hand reading

I dont know if I am able to print this off or not but will try tomorrow, either way this page will be part of my homework, please if you see this reply search for my post called (Flopzilla and hand reading) and I would appreciate any pointers to my situation


thanks paulw
 
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