$22 NLHE MTT Deep Stacked: Another bluff catching spot with 77

[fundiver199]

Since I am at it, here is another bluff catching spot from a "Voyage" on 888 Poker, this time the 22$ version, which by the way I satellited into for 2 x 3,3$. Many of the satellites on 888 Poker run with a big overlay, and in top of that several people are sitting out for whatever reason. For those reasons the satellites are excellent value, and they do actually allow you to be more aggressive with your bankroll, since you are not going to be paying anywhere near 22$ per seat, especially since the fields are also soft.

Anyways on to the hand. Standard open preflop with 77, BB defend, and then he donk jam a paired flop for around 2 times the pot. Only played 9 hands with this player, so not much info, but the HUD was showing VPIP 33 / PFR 11. Obviously only one decision to be made in this hand: Hold`em or Fold`em


888Poker, $20 + $2 - Hold'em No Limit - 350/700 (85 ante) - 8 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

UTG: 16,739 (24 bb)
UTG+1: 73,990 (106 bb)
MP: 14,410 (21 bb)
MP+1 (Hero): 20,006 (29 bb)
CO: 20,368 (29 bb)
BU: 8,763 (13 bb)
SB: 29,062 (42 bb)
BB: 11,569 (17 bb)

Pre-Flop: (1,730) Hero is MP+1 with 7♦ 7♣
3 players fold, Hero raises to 1,750, 3 players fold, BB calls 1,050

Flop: (4,530) 6♥ Q♠ Q♦ (2 players)
BB bets 9,734 (all-in), Hero?

 

[toots babos]

Probably call this spot, it's going to be a 6 in his hand the majority of the time

 

[SpanRmonka]

I'd be worried about a bluffy looking bet with trips, but its more likely big A or a 6, or another middle/small pair.

Probably calling as Hero covers the villain, but maybe not prepared to put tourney life at stake, if Villain had me covered.

 

[300HPGOD]

These are spots where I feel like we can really narrow villains range pretty well based on their stack size and actions in the hand. Pre flop calling your raise with 17 BBs takes away some hands to begin with. AA is actually still possible for villain in my book pre as they might not want to scare you and dont have to try hard to get it all in post flop. However, hands that are strong but still vulnerable would jam and not call like AK, AQ, and JJ-99. The last group is very important in this hand.

On the flop when villain jams I cant see them ever jamming Qx or 66 here and risking a fold. This to me is a hand that is somewhat made but doesnt want to see any more cards. Hands that fit into this category are 6x and 88 and very hard to have 77. 22-55 might also do this on the flop if they were to have called pre. Im not sure how many 6x hands that arent 66 make a call here on 17 BBs. It makes 88 be the most likely hand in my book followed by some 6x that called pre flop. However I will not totally discount that this could be any two cards since the only way you can call is strong kicker 6x, pocket pair or Qx. That there is enough to make this a call and take the risk (imo you can risk it here since you only have 29 BBs here and cover villain). This hand plays differently with larger stacks because of ranges but I would not call off here if I had 40 BBs and villain had 25 BBs as an example. Under 30 BBs we can take more risks since our stack is starting to deteriorate. Wouldnt be shocked though to see villain flip over 88 which should be a jam pre by them but is a hand that fits the action.

 

[fundiver199]

Thanks for the comments. I will reveal my decision and the outcome later to allow more unbiased discussion to take place. In the meantime a very similar hand came up today in a 4,4$ satellite to a 33$ PKO on 888 Poker. Note that I am the effective stack in this one, so its "only" 2.800 chips for me to call. The opponent was playing VPIP 26 / PFR 7 / AF 1,5 over 395 hands.

888Poker, $4 + $0.40 - Hold'em No Limit - 25/50 (5 ante) - 9 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

UTG: 4,925 (99 bb)
UTG+1: 4,855 (97 bb)
MP: 4,964 (99 bb)
MP+1: 9,890 (198 bb)
LP: 5,029 (101 bb)
CO: 5,264 (105 bb)
BU (Hero): 3,103 (62 bb)
SB: 3,239 (65 bb)
BB: 8,731 (175 bb)

Pre-Flop: (120) Hero is BTN with T♥ T♣
1 fold, UTG+1 calls 50, 3 players fold, CO calls 50, Hero raises to 320, 3 players fold, CO calls 270

Flop: (810) 2♥ J♠ J♣ (2 players)
CO bets 4,939 (all-in), Hero?

 

[eetenor]

Thanks for the comments. I will reveal my decision and the outcome later to allow more unbiased discussion to take place. In the meantime a very similar hand came up today in a 4,4$ satellite to a 33$ PKO on 888 Poker. Note that I am the effective stack in this one, so its "only" 2.800 chips for me to call. The opponent was playing VPIP 26 / PFR 7 / AF 1,5 over 395 hands.

888Poker, $4 + $0.40 - Hold'em No Limit - 25/50 (5 ante) - 9 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

UTG: 4,925 (99 bb)
UTG+1: 4,855 (97 bb)
MP: 4,964 (99 bb)
MP+1: 9,890 (198 bb)
LP: 5,029 (101 bb)
CO: 5,264 (105 bb)
BU (Hero): 3,103 (62 bb)
SB: 3,239 (65 bb)
BB: 8,731 (175 bb)

Pre-Flop: (120) Hero is BTN with T♥ T♣
1 fold, UTG+1 calls 50, 3 players fold, CO calls 50, Hero raises to 320, 3 players fold, CO calls 270

Flop: (810) 2♥ J♠ J♣ (2 players)
CO bets 4,939 (all-in), Hero?

Thank you for posting.

For those who do not know about satty strategy there is data that we would need to judge this decision on, beyond raw equity. That is why we fold AA in satties sometimes.

So our action depends on how many seats available -how many players still live- relative stack size and V satty skill level.
As to skill level V have to know they should over fold in satties for us to adjust to shoving more of our range.
This may be what this V is applying in this spot as they may expect us to over fold here or if the V is good at satty strat they are shoving a Jack because they know we are short stacked and are more likely to be raising a tight range preflop in a sattie which we should be because we do not need first place chips to win. Therefore they may expect more calls on a -EV shove with a jack.

This may be a single table satty which pays one spot. If we think we have a flip we have to take it, however that is even more reason for this V to shove a Jack in this spot hoping we have AA-QQ if they are skilled or they think we are not.



Hope this helps

 

[Jon Poker]

Snap call both of these spots - villans just dont do this with trips too often - they elect to check-raise those - and these flops are extremely dry and hard to connect with. We have the best hand an overwhelming amount of the time and you won't find me folding either of these spots. Everynow and then you are going to run into trips, but more often than not, they just don't take this line with trips - those that do are losing value and only getting calls from a narrow range of hands - hands like the ones we possess in these 2 examples

 

[toots babos]

Thanks for the comments. I will reveal my decision and the outcome later to allow more unbiased discussion to take place. In the meantime a very similar hand came up today in a 4,4$ satellite to a 33$ PKO on 888 Poker. Note that I am the effective stack in this one, so its "only" 2.800 chips for me to call. The opponent was playing VPIP 26 / PFR 7 / AF 1,5 over 395 hands.

888Poker, $4 + $0.40 - Hold'em No Limit - 25/50 (5 ante) - 9 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

UTG: 4,925 (99 bb)
UTG+1: 4,855 (97 bb)
MP: 4,964 (99 bb)
MP+1: 9,890 (198 bb)
LP: 5,029 (101 bb)
CO: 5,264 (105 bb)
BU (Hero): 3,103 (62 bb)
SB: 3,239 (65 bb)
BB: 8,731 (175 bb)

Pre-Flop: (120) Hero is BTN with T♥ T♣
1 fold, UTG+1 calls 50, 3 players fold, CO calls 50, Hero raises to 320, 3 players fold, CO calls 270

Flop: (810) 2♥ J♠ J♣ (2 players)
CO bets 4,939 (all-in), Hero?

This hand I'd lean towards a fold.

 

[300HPGOD]

2nd hand is tougher because we know villain does not have QQ+ and all the mid pocket paird we beat where in the first hand we lose to 88 and a possible but doubtful 99. However in this hand I reverse course from the first hand and I fold the 2nd hand. The reason is for the reason I brought up in my first post. I'm willing to take chances when my stack is 29 BBs but we are 62 BBs here which changes a lot so I fold. Again looking at just the cards this spot is an easier call than the first hand but the stack sizes change everything and is this villain dusting off a potential 62 BBs to gain the few from your preflop raise (if you fold) unless he is sure you are folding or calling with worse? That gets more doubtful for us the higher the effective stack is such as in this hand. The larger the effective stacks are the greater the chance villain has Jx here and is hoping you have a hand that you cant fold.

 

[fundiver199]

For those who do not know about satty strategy there is data that we would need to judge this decision on, beyond raw equity. That is why we fold AA in satties sometimes.

Good point. It was early in the satellite, and 5 places paid, so ranges will be pretty much like in the early phase of a normal MTT. I had actually dropped below the starting stack of 5.000 chips, so I needed to accumulate a lot more chips to have a chance to win a seat. Its also worth noting, that these satellites almost always runs with an overlay, and rebuy is possible. So actually gambling is rewarded early on, and chips won can often be worth more than the cost of rebuying, if we get busted.

 

[erik_lima]

First hand: It's hard to say without much information about the vilain. I would fold but I'm a NIT player. Call is also not bad I think, because of your stack.

Second hand: fold. Your hand is not that good to call such amount of chips. Beggining of tournament, lot of bad players, I prefer to wait a better spot.

 

[fundiver199]

Snap call both of these spots - villans just dont do this with trips too often - they elect to check-raise those

Or they check-call, because they are scared to lose their customer, and they are not afraid of any turn card, especially when the board is rainbow, because then no flush or straight is possible before the river. Only complete beginners go "LOL I have 3 of a kind I am all in" in situations like these, and there are not many complete beginners in a 22$ MTT. Maybe a few more in a 4,4$ satellite but still not many.

So I called in both spots. The first opponent had K3 offsuit for absolutely nothing, and the second opponent had K9 offsuit for also absolutely nothing, and I managed to get my hold in both hands. I guess, the thinking of the opponents much have been something like "LOL you probably missed this board, so if I go all in, you will need to fold".

 

[Jon Poker]

Or they check-call, because they are scared to lose their customer, and they are not afraid of any turn card, especially when the board is rainbow, because then no flush or straight is possible before the river. Only complete beginners go "LOL I have 3 of a kind I am all in" in situations like these, and there are not many complete beginners in a 22$ MTT. Maybe a few more in a 4,4$ satellite but still not many.

So I called in both spots. The first opponent had K3 offsuit for absolutely nothing, and the second opponent had K9 offsuit for also absolutely nothing, and I managed to get my hold in both hands. I guess, the thinking of the opponents much have been something like "LOL you probably missed this board, so if I go all in, you will need to fold".

Indeed lol but in reality it's a move that will only get better to call and get worse to fold...at least the majority of the time. Sometimes I suppose they can get A hi hands to fold and if they have worse, it's a successful bluff. Either way, I think we hit the key points

 

[fundiver199]

Indeed lol but in reality it's a move that will only get better to call and get worse to fold...at least the majority of the time. Sometimes I suppose they can get A hi hands to fold and if they have worse, it's a successful bluff. Either way, I think we hit the key points

I would surely have folded A high in both hands, so the bluff will clearly get through a decent amount of the time. But it also need to, when they are risking 2-3 times the pot. The same result could most likely be achieved with a much better risk/reward, if they went for a check-raise instead. Its entirely possible, that someone might C-bet QQ6 or JJ2 with air and then fold to a check-raise.

 

[Jon Poker]

I would surely have folded A high in both hands, so the bluff will clearly get through a decent amount of the time. But it also need to, when they are risking 2-3 times the pot. The same result could most likely be achieved with a much better risk/reward, if they went for a check-raise instead. Its entirely possible, that someone might C-bet QQ6 or JJ2 with air and then fold to a check-raise.

Funny you should mention the x/r in spots like this. PIO loves x/r small paired boards like 339 or 55T when we are the BB - it also x/r some boards like the examples youve posted when we have two pair and trips or flush draws - it helps to keep us balanced and allows us to deny equity when we are value betting and bluffs to have merit when we pull that trigger. For example on the JJ2 flop we would x/r all our 2s and overpairs like 33+ in this spot for value and protection. That being said, hands like AK, AQ and KQ are also supposed to float our x/r a decent amount as well. Anyhow, glad you mentioned that. Figured I'd share this today bit of info as well. These moves work well in game, especially in stakes where people don't properly float the x/r and you get villans to overfold.

 

[popstani]

Well,everything is said and analyzed very well, but one point missing here, how our opponent sees us, what our stats look like. And again, is our opponent good enough to play in this spots. If we have some knowledge of how to play this game, doesn’t mean that other side knows, specifically in soft and loose games. If we tend to trap with all our sets, doesn’t mean that other guys do. So on my humble opinion it’s better to fold in both spots, and go to another hand, where situation will be clearer.

 

[gardin555]

Or they check-call, because they are scared to lose their customer, and they are not afraid of any turn card, especially when the board is rainbow, because then no flush or straight is possible before the river. Only complete beginners go "LOL I have 3 of a kind I am all in" in situations like these, and there are not many complete beginners in a 22$ MTT. Maybe a few more in a 4,4$ satellite but still not many.

So I called in both spots. The first opponent had K3 offsuit for absolutely nothing, and the second opponent had K9 offsuit for also absolutely nothing, and I managed to get my hold in both hands. I guess, the thinking of the opponents much have been something like "LOL you probably missed this board, so if I go all in, you will need to fold".

I think the call was good movement in both hands. The opponents were very predictable and transparent by making an overbet allin on flop in that kind of hands.
I guess such a high VPIP in both players and also the values of almost 20 points of difference between the VPIP/ PFR stats of each player, may have helped you to be more sure taking your final decision. Well played.

I like your proposal to analyze your hands without knowing the final result, I think it's a good way to learn to read hands.
Looking forward for more hands.