UTG min-raised, which is not very nice to see, but we are deepstacked and in position with a suited near connector so I don't mind seeing a flop as it is still cheap. Would prefer a hand like 87 as it is pretty easy to let go when we see we don't hit a flop whereas if we hit a J here and start getting some action we are going to find some difficult situations.
Flop does contain that ace but his check doesn't suggest he has it, and we have picked up a nice draw. While we can see the free card, we could semi-
bluff and get the pot now. Additionally, he could call with something and it starts to massage the pot so if we hit the draw, we have a nice pot to play with. I am not sure how much fold
equity we have though, I think he check-calls with any medium pair, with a stupidly passive small ace and he check raises with any two pair/higher ace/set. We don't really want to see a check-raise here at all as it loses us a chance at the draw. We are also losing the chance of KQ or something like that making a move at us if we hit on the turn Therefore, I think checking and taking a free card looks like the correct move.
Turn misses and villain bets, we are getting over 3.5:1 to see river, as long as you feel that
your draw is best and villain will put some extra dosh in on river then fine for a call here.
River makes our draw, brings out another 8 which was the card villain bet on turn and induces villain to make a more than 2/3rds the pot bet. Now, you flat call. I can only assume this is becuase you are worried that if we raise, the majority of the time it is only better
hands that will call or raise in this spot. I am not sure how true that is. So, we should go through hands the villain could have we beat and how he would play them and hands beating us.
First, our hand. We have made the 4th nut flush. It is not great, and could bring up some tricky spots, but we called on the turn assuming that if we made our draw we would be ahead. Otherwise, the call makes no sense. Would have been nice to see the K of clubs out on the river, but we have made our draw. Now, three flushes beat us. However, one is unlikely, and that is the nut flush, mainly because of how passively he played the ace on the flop if he did hit it. It is most likely he had the A with the raise pre-flop but would an ace with the nut flush draw check the flop? It is possible. However, would it make a bet on the turn that really doesn't extract much at all from their opponent? I think they bet stonger. We don't know for sure, he may have been slowplaying it, but it seems odd.
The K of clubs with another club is made less possible by someone who you say doesn't raise much from EP raising. KQ is possible, maybe of clubs of course. But he probably limps most other Kxs hands if he wants to play them. The Q of clubs again would have to contain the K of clubs to make the min-raise pf make sense. Of course, he could have drawn to a better flush, but there is enough doubt here to make me think my flush is best. These hands probably raise if we raise on river.
Other hands we lose to now include a set on the flop, obviously AA, 77 or 22 and now hands like A8, 78, 28. We can discount 28 and 78, A8 is possible, but a monster like that is just unfortunate. The fact he likes limping from UTG makes me think he would have limped A8 as well. AA and 77 are possible, but 22 probably not. The fact he likes to make c-bets and didn't here does make a monster slightly more likely, but he may have just realised he had made a few c-bets and cooled off with the A on board. We get raised on the river with these hands.
The hands we are beating, well, the most likely is a medium pair. However, 77 beats us, 88 beats us. Would 33-66 bet that strongly on the river and min-raise pf? Unlikely. 99-JJ are possible, however you have to feel they would have bet stronger on the flop and if not then certainly on the turn after a check. We are beating any Ax hand outside A8, but they look strangely played by the flop check and the small bet on the turn. Only 99-JJ we really get some more cash off of.
He could have an 8, and the betting looks like it, but how many hands is he raising pre-flop with an 8? We lose to 88, A8, the two most likely. Everything else looks hard to believe. We get called by a single 8 and raised if we are beat here.
He could also be on a total bluff of course, but then we are not getting more chips out of him in that situation.
Yeah, having gone through the hands, really only the medium pairs can pay off a raise, and they are quite small in number and look unlikely given the action. The bet gives us the
odds we needed to call on turn so calling and winning the pot would be fine in this spot. I like your play.
