$215 NLHE MTT Turbo: loose button iso jams over the limpers. what should I call with?

[Jacki Burkhart]

$215 NLHE MTT Turbo: loose button iso jams over the limpers. what should I call with?

$215 buy in local NLHE turbo. 54 remain 15 paid.

I’ve had to fold a bunch of junk now blinds just went up so I have 9bb in the BB.

1000/2000/300 ante

Full 9 handed table.

UTG limps of a stack of about 40k (20bb) he’s been doing this a lot and folding to big raises.

MP limps off stack of about 35k (17bb)

Button jams 18bb he is a very loose, risky, gambly player. I feel he can be as weak as all suited Aces, A8o+ all pairs all broadways and a few suited connectors.

It folds to me in the BB. I pause.

The 2 limpers appear to be intending to fold.

Which hands should I rejam for less?

(If I fold this hand I’ll have 7bb on Button in 2 hands due to large antes)

 

[julianjjboy]

You are in the very terrible position. I think your fold is fine. Cos behind you still 2 players. A8s is not strong to against 2 or 3 players.

Just wait for better hands to double up. Good luck.

 

[RocwX]

You shouldn't have let your stack get that small. Unless it is 72o, call with anything. If you wait any more than that, your stack will be so small that you won't be able to scare any player from the flop and could be going all in in a multi way pot. Remember that no matter what hand you have preflop, it could be a winner at the end.

 

[Matt Vaughan]

You are in the very terrible position. I think your fold is fine. Cos behind you still 2 players. A8s is not strong to against 2 or 3 players.

Just wait for better hands to double up. Good luck.

Julian make sure you read the original post (OP) carefully - Jacki doesn't have A8, she is speculating about the original raiser's range in this spot and wondering what it makes sense to rejam here.

You shouldn't have let your stack get that small. Unless it is 72o, call with anything. If you wait any more than that, your stack will be so small that you won't be able to scare any player from the flop and could be going all in in a multi way pot. Remember that no matter what hand you have preflop, it could be a winner at the end.

I don't quite agree with this Roc. Yes we IDEALLY don't ever want to get down to sub 10bb in a tourney, but that doesn't mean it's aways incorrect to have gotten there. Are you saying that when Jacki had 13bb or so UTG last orbit she should have been shoving any two cards? I hope it makes sense that that cannot be correct, and any push/fold chart will tell you so.


Getting back to the actual hand. The UTG limper is known to be someone who limp/folds a lot. I think the original raiser is getting through that limp close to 100%.

The second limper is an overlimper and is super unlikely to be sandbagging with aces or kings here. This player too, I expect the raiser's jam to get through close to 100% (it might be like 98-99%).

Which means what we're looking at here is a spot where we can call off for less than the jammer's shove, but utilize his fold equity. Neat.

So we have 18k, but 2k is already in for the BB, so we need to call 16k and there's the blinds, antes, the limpers, and the jam, which is effectively to us is 18k total. I count 18k (effective jam) + 4k (limps) + 5.7k (blinds and antes) = 27.7k

So we're calling 16k to win 27.7k and only need about 36.6% equity against the jammer's range to call it off here.

Btw I wanna stop here and just tell you what my gut would be. I would be calling it off here with something like AT+, KJ, KQ, QJ, JTs and 22+. Let's go on.

I plugged villain's range in as you put it - A8o+, A2s+, 22+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s. And I started plugging hand in vs that range that I speculated made up roughly the bottom where we have > 36.6% equity vs range.

As expected, all pairs perform fine against that range. 22 has 42.75% equity. So 22+ for sure. I might have been a little too nitty calling off here, although I guess you could err on the side of too nitty here since often live you have fold equity even off of very small stacks. Anyway JTo is a call, with about 38% equity. T9o is not, with 36.3% equity. However T9s IS, with 39.6% equity. In fact all suited connectors retain such high equity when he has all the offsuit broadways that we can call all the way down to 54s with 36.7% equity (43s is a definite fold at 34.5%). I won't bore you with everything I tried, but here was the final range:

Final call off range:
22+
54s
65s
75s+
86s+
96s+
T7s+
J7s+
Q4s+
K2s+
A2s+
JTo
Q9o+
K5o+
A2o+

I love spots like these because they can challenge our expectations at times and remind us that equities vs range are often much higher than we think. That final call off range is almost 42% of combos that we can profitably call (vs a < 25% jamming range). MATH IS AWESOME.

 

[JBGoode]

Julian make sure you read the original post (OP) carefully - Jacki doesn't have A8, she is speculating about the original raiser's range in this spot and wondering what it makes sense to rejam here.




I don't quite agree with this Roc. Yes we IDEALLY don't ever want to get down to sub 10bb in a tourney, but that doesn't mean it's aways incorrect to have gotten there. Are you saying that when Jacki had 13bb or so UTG last orbit she should have been shoving any two cards? I hope it makes sense that that cannot be correct, and any push/fold chart will tell you so.


Getting back to the actual hand. The UTG limper is known to be someone who limp/folds a lot. I think the original raiser is getting through that limp close to 100%.

The second limper is an overlimper and is super unlikely to be sandbagging with aces or kings here. This player too, I expect the raiser's jam to get through close to 100% (it might be like 98-99%).

Which means what we're looking at here is a spot where we can call off for less than the jammer's shove, but utilize his fold equity. Neat.

So we have 18k, but 2k is already in for the BB, so we need to call 16k and there's the blinds, antes, the limpers, and the jam, which is effectively to us is 18k total. I count 18k (effective jam) + 4k (limps) + 5.7k (blinds and antes) = 27.7k

So we're calling 16k to win 27.7k and only need about 36.6% equity against the jammer's range to call it off here.

Btw I wanna stop here and just tell you what my gut would be. I would be calling it off here with something like AT+, KJ, KQ, QJ, JTs and 22+. Let's go on.

I plugged villain's range in as you put it - A8o+, A2s+, 22+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s. And I started plugging hand in vs that range that I speculated made up roughly the bottom where we have > 36.6% equity vs range.

As expected, all pairs perform fine against that range. 22 has 42.75% equity. So 22+ for sure. I might have been a little too nitty calling off here, although I guess you could err on the side of too nitty here since often live you have fold equity even off of very small stacks. Anyway JTo is a call, with about 38% equity. T9o is not, with 36.3% equity. However T9s IS, with 39.6% equity. In fact all suited connectors retain such high equity when he has all the offsuit broadways that we can call all the way down to 54s with 36.7% equity (43s is a definite fold at 34.5%). I won't bore you with everything I tried, but here was the final range:

Final call off range:
22+
54s
65s
75s+
86s+
96s+
T7s+
J7s+
Q4s+
K2s+
A2s+
JTo
Q9o+
K5o+
A2o+

I love spots like these because they can challenge our expectations at times and remind us that equities vs range are often much higher than we think. That final call off range is almost 42% of combos that we can profitably call (vs a < 25% jamming range). MATH IS AWESOME.

I didn't plug this into ICMizer, or any equity program, but I would agree with this analysis. Granted I tend to be a lot tighter in these spot then what the programs suggest, but with only 7BB, and huge antes. I would be wider then normal...

I would be at AA-99, Axs, Kxs, QJ-Q9s, JTs, J9s, T9s, AK-AJo, KQo.... Now I would also add hands 65s, 76s, 87s.... there is possibility if the 1 or both limpers call. the 3 players counterfeit each other's broadway cards.... allowing for my mid range suited connectors to hold sufficiently more equity.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

I am not afraid to get it in light to prevent myself from having 9bb in my BB...but sometimes you actually have no opportunity.

when it was folding to me I had absolute trash (think 93o) and when I had reasonable hands such as J8s or K9o I was facing a raise. So...in practice I very rarely find myself in the BB with a stack this short but sometimes optimal play lands you right here.

In the moment I had and I decided to jam....the 2 limpers were telegraphing that they intended to fold. I didn't have the math worked out in my mind but I felt like this hand was good enough given the "dead money".

after I ran the math (I got the same exact numbers as Scourrge) I decided that while 45ss was technically a call....I think I should have folded it due to ICM tax and skill edge.....the ICM is pretty minor at this stage but it's more than zero.

but I do have a significant skill edge over the field. So I think I should have a slightly stronger hand to call off. not much stronger though....even 78ss would probably be good enough.

the limpers did fold, the jammer had ATo and we took a lopsided race with dead money.

 

[Alucard]

This is the range I got from snapshove calling a 9BB shove BB vs BTN

No limping stats
Interesting that it has not many SCs & goes for raw equity. I initially thought K4o-K8o is a bit too loose
SB vs BB I wouldn't mind but BTN jamming into 2 EP limpers seems a bit strong for me.
But not much you can do when you drop to 7BB afterthat.
If I were to hold on to 9BB the next 2,3 hands I might tighten up a bit I think.

A spot where I'm really interested of